This is it for Kavanaugh. The only hope for confirmation was if the Republicans could push it through quickly before anyone could get a good look at him. Any delay would ruin that plan. Well, the plan is now officially ruined folks. I’m not yet ready to bet money that it’s over, but It’s starting to look like this nomination is moribund.
Thank goodness.
Those two are retiring so they’re safe to do this.
Just to keep the math in mind: two Rs voting against Kavanaugh, plus all the Ds – he’s not confirmed.
Will all the Ds vote against confirmation? I think it’s more likely that Flake and Corker will lead at least Murkowski and Collins to vote no, as well.
So this becomes a one-shot, last chance hearing: with Ford AND Mark Judge – plus a copy of his yearbook and his memoir.
A Flake/Corker/Murkowski/Collins “thumbs down” ala McCain would be sweet.
I heard that Grassley is going to schedule testimony from Prof Ford on September 19, Never.
@theamericanist Manchin and Heitkamp are lost causes. The calculus on Collins, Murkowski, Flake, and Corker gives me little hope that they’ll actually do anything other than protest vigorously before voting to confirm.
Sure they could. And I could be playing centerfield for the Yankees.
Don’t get your hopes up. A day or so of hearing the accusation and Kavanaugh’s response to the accusation, then they vote to confirm anyway, and Kavanaugh is vindicated. The committee didn’t find him guilty, therefore he’s innocent. Kavanaugh and his accuser get their day in court, the “moderate” Rs get to make a show of independence.
Sure, maybe Corker and Flake actually are planning to vote “no” on the nomination. That would be different. That would actually threaten the nomination. But just holding out for whatever delay is needed to give Kavanaugh his chance to respond to the accusation is not even a little bit anti-Kavanaugh. It is, in fact, favorable to Kavanaugh.
If there weren’t “moderate” Rs with real qualms about Kavanaugh created by this story, the people pushing his nomination would have been obliged to create the appearance of Rs with qualms, so as to create an excuse for Kavanaugh to get his vindication.
This is true. Nevertheless, if Kavanaugh loses their votes, he’s toast.
Collins, Corker, Flake and Murkowski are searching desperately for a way to vote for Kavanaugh, and still uphold labels like “moderate”.
The act is very tired and unconvincing.
If they can vote Kavanaugh down, that’s the end for the RePugs. They will not be able to float another candidate in time to beat out the Nov. elections. Ha. Ha. Ha.
I think Dr. Ford is incredibly brave. Her life as she knew it, is over, but she is doing the right thing and such a service to women everywhere. I think many women’s hopes are vicariously pinned on her testimony. This may prove to be a kind of vindication on multiple levels, from payback for the null response to tRump’s aggression toward women (grab 'em by the pussy) and perhaps the comeuppance for men who slandered and brutalized women in high school.
Totally agree. Whether he gets confirmed or not, a bunch of GOP senators are going to get very bloodied up in the process. I’ll say this though… if she does get to testify then it’s probably over for Kavanaugh.
I totally disagree. Listening to Dr. Ford’s account is not going to help Kavanaugh in the least bit. She’s got contemporaneous evidence that this indeed happened to her. While it might be fine for a deep red state senator to vote for a rapist, it won’t be so easy for those from not crazy states who’d like to have careers after 2020.
That’s a nice baby step and I guess I’ll take it, but how anyone can consider a vote for Kavanaugh is completely mind numbing, even in the age of Trump.
You could be right.
Sure, it will be embarrassing to vote for this person, but that’s true right now, with or without Dr. Ford appearing before the committee, so I don’t see another hearing making problems for Kavanaugh that he doesn’t already have. And would confirmation of Kavanaugh be the most embarrassing thing these “moderate” Rs have voted for? Would it even be close? And have the stakes for the party they chose to belong to, the party they have swallowed much bigger camels for, ever been higher? Why do they balk over this vote, when they have done much worse for much lower stakes?
It is true that a senator from a blue state who is up for reelection this year might face extra problems from voting for Kavanaugh in this year’s election, but I don’t see this story as nearly as much a problem as his opposition to Roe v Wade, and even insofar as this story is an extra problem, having a hearing does more to alleviate that problem with blue-inclined voters than not having another hearing. They hold the hearing, let Dr. Ford tell her story, let Kavanaugh deny it all, then announce with sadness and regret that it’s innocent until proven guilty, and a “he said, she said” swearing contest just isn’t strong enough to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, so they have to let Kavanaugh through.
If these “moderate” R senators were worried that they wouldn’t be able to pull this off by bulling through and pretending there isn’t enough evidence to find Kavanaugh guilty, they would just tell us they’re not voting for his confirmation. That’s the only stand that gets them out of hot water with whatever voters care enough about this matter to base their votes on it. Calling for another hearing to let Dr. Ford testify won’t be near enough.
They could if they wanted to, because the only thing that might keep them from confirming another nominee within a matter of days would be the rules of the Senate. Those rules can be changed at any time with a simple majority.
And, if they choose not to change the rules to make a pre-election confirmation of a new nominee, they still have a shot at it in the lame duck session, which they can continue almost to January 2019 if they choose. They might actually find it easier to get all sorts of things done with senators and congresscritters who have nothing left to lose because they’ve already been voted out in the first week of November, but still get to pass bills until the next Congress is seated in January.
A lame duck session approving midnight judges is how the Federalists bid an ungrateful nation an unkind farewell. This scenario could be in our near future and not just our ancient history.