Discussion for article #245949
Washington Free Beacon?
I would take this one with a football-field-sized grain of salt (and I’m a Bernie supporter).
That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me if Bernie was closing the gap in Nevada. It’s just that this particular poll sponsor has zero credibility, and I don’t know anything about the actual pollster.
Will be interesting to see if Nate Silver even includes this in his polling average, and if so, what weight he gives it.
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Are you serious TPM? A poll by Free Beacon. I usually don’t poo poo polls but this one I guarantee will show to be an outlier as Free Beacon is as partisan as they come.
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Poll was taken Feb 8 to 10–before, during, and after the NH primary stomp.
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“There has been so little polling in Nevada that there is no TPM PollTracker Average for the state.”
538 also.
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Just went to the site. He added this poll into his averages.
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Can we try to at least evaluate a poll before broadcasting its results? 55% of responders are planning on attending the caucus for the first time. Not exactly a “likely voter” profile. Plus the questions about each of the candidates couldn’t be more Free Beacony.
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They pretty much have to, there is no other polling available
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agreed,
Though I read “Free Bacon”
the sample size is respectable though. This should be considered to mitigate scepticism some. I think it fair to say they are in the ballpark even if still an outlier.
but yes, a single poll does not a trend make…
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With a weight of 0.42, despite it being the newest one. Free Bacon. And the previous ones available are just old old old by not so reputable pollsters.
No way telling the current state from the info we have. Having said that, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nevada race has been significantly tightening up after Iowa and NH.
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I’d be surprised if there wasn’t…
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That’s not unexpected either.
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Clinton’s narrow win in Iowa and substantial loss in New Hampshire
Whenever the “crushing” of Clinton is mentioned, it should carry a caveat about how Hillary is likely to get exactly the same number of delegates as Bernie. The vote counts were a crushing defeat, but in terms of securing the Democratic nomination? Pretty much a tie.
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Pretty curious why PPP doesn’t have any current polling in NV or SC.
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Even if an outlier: Boom. Kissinger protégé Hillary Clinton is in deep trouble.
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PPP said they’re doing a poll of North and South Carolina on Tuesday. But yeah, surprising they (and others) haven’t done more before this.
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Superdelegates are weird, and don’t really matter all that much, tbh. Hill had all the superdelegates in 2008, and when Obama beat her handily they all switched over to Obama. They won’t go against the will of the public, because that would be the end of the Party.
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Looks like Silver has this poll “weighted” at **.**42. But all the other polls are old, and weighted as 0. So although Silver’s model currently shows a 50-50 race in Nevada, it’s only based on this one (questionable) poll.
Hopefully there will be more polls soon, both in Nevada and South Carolina. Frankly I’m a bit shocked there hasn’t been more polling of those states – with only a little over a week to go before the Nevada caucuses, and just a couple weeks before South Carolina. The number of recent, or even recent-ish polls in these states is shockingly low compared to the reams of polls available at comparable points before Iowa and New Hampshire – which is even more surprising given how important these contests may prove to be.
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They are probably waiting for post debate and the ramp up in campaigns before polling
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Probably a trash poll. After last night’s debate, Hillary will be fine in NV. I expect her to win by about the same 5-6 point margin that she beat Obama by in 2008.
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