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Do you, have you lived in Arizona or spent time there? I wish what you said is feasible (getting a out-and-proud progressive to win statewide office in Arizona)… but I think that’s wishful thinking. Maybe in 10 more years as demographics continue to shift there.
Kirsten is a great representative in the truest sense. She was my rep in Tempe and her support for constituents is phenomenal. She represents everyone in her district by being their advocates. She may not brandish the big-team-blue banner and campaign language; but it is ARIZONA! We saw even mildly progressive candidates go up and get beat, cycle after cycle after cycle. Kirsten is the real deal and can and will WIN and do a great job in the US senate.
The X Factor for all of these Democratic wins is early voting. The fact that there are record numbers of people casting early ballots bodes well for them, concerning most of them are younger voters and minority voters, two groups that traditionally lean blue. Senate looks like it’s a toss up. I predict McCaskill will win out, but I don’t think Heitcamp will. The only Senate win I want to see in person are Beto in Texas; Ted Cruz Iscariot should learn that betraying your wife and father for 30 pieces of silver won’t go very far in this economy.
The ads against Hawley in the last couple of weeks have been brutal. Apparently he blames contraception and the sexual revolution of the 1960s for sex trafficking and rape. In a race against a woman former prosecutor who made her career fighting sex traffickers and rapists that is not a good look. Worse still is his participation in the ACA lawsuit intended to deny protection for pre-existing conditions. If the DNC hadn’t abandoned the Missouri suburbs 10 years ago and the state was slightly bluer McCaskill would win in a walk. As it is I think Hawley has more than a punchers chance.
My predictions:
McCaskill gets a narrow win.
Sinema wins by 5 points.
Tester wins by 3.
Beto pulls out a 3 point win as well (and it’s called early).
I think we’ll get the FL Senate seat.
Correction: Democrats only need a net gain of two seats to win control of the Senate. The current makeup is 51-49 Republicans. But… assuming we lose North Dakota (seems all but certain), we’ll need to flip three GOP seats to take control.
Prediction: Dems lose North Dakota but win Arizona, Nevada, and Texas, holding all other contested seats. Dems control Senate 51-49 in 2019.
I’ll take it I’ll take it I’ll take it!!!
I like it. It’s much more likely, however, to end up +/- 1, so a range of 52/48 to 50/50. Texas would indeed be a welcome surprise, as would Tennessee.
To tee things up for tomorrow… everybody’s gotta vote, bishhhh!
Something to keep in mind…this isn’t just about who takes the Senate this election. It is also important for who controls the Senate and by how much if 2020 and 2022.
I don’t know from points, and maybe I’m just another crazy kid with a dream, but I think Beto’s going to pull it out. I think, I hope, I fervently pray, Texas will have some surprises in store for everyone.
My head is telling me slightly different, but I’ve noticed two things in the last week. 1. Beto’s closing the gap with Cruz in the “polls,” such as they are. 2. I was watching Hulu for the first time in a while this past weekend. Hulu programming is saturated with Beto commercials and none for any other candidate that I saw.
i wonder what would happen with a 50/50 Senate? I know Pence would be the Tie Breaker vote but, who gets to control what Bills get to the floor? Who get the Title Senate Majority Leader when there’s no Majority?
I wouldn’t count out Phil Bredesen —a hugely popular former governor in Tennessee, a recruiting coup to get him to run. And people just do not like Marsha Blackburn—it’s Tennessee, but that still counts for something.
Agreed.
The party with the tiebreaker vote (the VP) gets the majority. So the GOP would still control the Senate. Only path to a Democratic majority is if we have 51 seats at the end of the night tomorrow. A 50-50 Senate would likely give both parties an equal number of seats on each committee (though the GOP would still control the chairs).
An implication here appears to be that private polling is considered more accurate than public. Is there a technical reason for this?
Sampling in 2018 polls turns out to have been highly questionable because of the massive underweighting of the new and less likely voters who are in fact voting in large numbers and trending strongly Democrat. Stated another way, there are too many likely voters in the samples for polls showing close or toss up races and not enough of the voters who statistically don’t vote.
Problem Number 2 is that the modeling for turnout is based on 2014, full stop, a year where younger voters in Harris County TX (Houston) voted early at 20% of this year’s level, just as one example of the distortions in polling for a midterm election with presidential turnout. There is no data about crossover voting because the President is an obnoxious, fascist madman.
Women also voted early in much larger numbers than men.
My prediction is that the only Democrat at risk in the Senate is Heidi Heitkamp. Look at Ralph Northam in the VA Governor’s race in 2017. What was looking like a squeaker for either candidate turned into a blowout, with Northam winning by a bigger margin than predicted by any poll during the campaign.
I’m not writing Heidi off, though. ND farmers are getting killed by Trump’s tariffs. Soybean exports are down 94%. Better with Heidi on the majority than boring Kevin Cramer in the Minority.
There are damned few safe Republicans today.
The Senate is a cliffhanger. Attention democrats walk softly and carry a big stick and vote to take this in back as well. Democrats get your friends out to vote as many as you can change the face of the senate to blue. The probability of taking both houses which would include the Senate will send Donald Trump didn’t nearest exit Bloomers and toe.
Donald Trump will resign if we take back both houses. He is trying to walk back as we speak he’s bad temperament he knows that both houses are in deep trouble and that means a Senate. Not Goodnuf we want you out resign.