Both Cook and 538 expect Dems to pick up 30-40 seats. 538 says that if they go above 40 seats it increases the chance that Dems pick up the Senate as well (which is still highly unlikely).
One thing Iâve noticed in the last few days is the turn in MSM (TPM Included) talking points. Instead of Dems suck and will totes lose! Itâs now more Dems will probably win but, just because of the Mail Bomber and Synagogue shooter. Nothing the Dems do/did and nothing to credit Dem voters just a well if it wasnât for these 2 incidents of Ugly Repubs Dems totes would of lost because theyâre dumb!
Now Iâm super petty and annoyed by Joe Scarborough this morning STILL trying to say Den have no shot at winning anything! So I want Dems to win big in the House and Claire Mccaskill to hold her seat just to shut his annoying face up!
Hopes up, fingers crossed. Please let this be true or I wonât be getting out of bed Wed. a.m.
Off to do a little canvassing for Va. District 2 Dem.
MJoe is contrarian, and they love to dump on the Dems. Mika (who I generally like) gets particularly pained. Itâs the horse race. Dems do stand for something specific - check on GOP, health care, protecting SS etc. yet âthey donât stand for anything.â Sure.
"One thing that strikes me again and again about this critical election. Republicans to a great degree and urban concentration to a lesser degree have tilted the system dramatically in the GOPâs favor. We see it clearly at the presidential level and even more dramatically in the House, which is supposed to be the part of federal government most sensitive to public opinion. "
- Josh Marshall
Which is why it is so hard to for Democrats to win. And âthe systemâ was designed from the beginning to tilt toward wealthy white-supremicist men, regardless of party affiliation.
No democracy, no justice
I am hoping to go to bed on Tuesday night knowing that the Dems have the House, with some close races to be decided on Wednesday or later.
Itâs just a gut feeling, but I think Dems will blow the doors off in the House, and just mightâŚmight take the Senate. Itâs a sense that things shifted in the final days between the bomber, synagogue shooting and Trumpâs immigration howling. And I think the pollsters may not be capturing a surge of young voters in their modeling. I think Heller May lose in NV AND Beto might take Texas. One thing I do know for sureâŚit will be a long night and maybe days before we have all the results
The âFounding Fathersâ had absolutely no interest in having a democracy. They wanted people like them (rich white males) running the show and we still have to deal with that legacy.
I am not as dumb as Joe Scarborough (I think). I believe results will be good for Dems.
But I am very superstitious, and cringe when ex-CIA Directors and Nancy Pelosi say it is a slam dunk.
That kind of talk also gives an excuse to the lazy voter who hears it and says âwhy should I vote- it is already decidedâ.
Pelosi should be concentrating on rabid GOTV instead of declaring victory on Colbertâs show.
As Colbert said, âDo you want to say that on Hillaryâs fireworks barge that she canceled?â
Lets make this election the beginning of the end for voter suppression by rogue Republican SOSâs!
Kris Kobach the vote suppressor and his fellow Republican counterparts like Kemp, are the true ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE!
DEMOCRATS, ONCE IN POWER, NEED TO PROMULGATE LAWS THAT MAKE INSTITUTIONAL CONSPIRACY TO COMMIT VOTER SUPPRESSION A VERY SERIOUS FELONY!!!
They wonât LOL at that.
Lets call it âTHE KOBACH LAWâ just so our progeny in the far-flung future remember him for what he really is, the Real Enemy of The People.
As Democrats take new majorities across the political spectrum at every level of government, we need to start writing federal and state, even local laws, that make vote suppression as illegal as constitutionally possible.
Make it downright disastrous for anyone running for SOS in any state to even PONDER ways to suppress the vote.
Make the SOS office in every state the most transparent and the most answerable to public scrutiny. Make certain no one like Kobach wants it in the first place because the penalties for abusing it are so strict.
And in that same legislative revolution to protect the office of SOS from scoundrels, we should NEVER allow a proprietary program to infect our process again, We, the People, should OWN those codes, as public property, and no one should be able to hack them.
IT CAN BE DONE, it MUST be done, to restore The Peopleâs faith in our electoral process.
Numbers canât lie like a Republican does⌠their enthusiasm is based on facts, and they have every right to be giddy, but I agree, they canât gloat.
But the fact is, there is overwhelming democracy underway, and it may prove cleansing in ways we couldnât hope for before.
Desperation is the mother of all motivation. Trump made our nation desperate, like never before, and we are responding.
That is really as simple as it can get. It may take a few more elections to sweep out the last dustmites hiding in the red states, but inevitably, we will find a way back to democracy, and we may even make it much better.
That may apply to Russia, but not our founders.
I think Joeâs trying some reverse psychology here⌠Mika made him do itâŚ
One side of me says how can we not take House, Senate, Govs given the âleadershipâ we have now. Everyone has to be outraged, right? But, the other side is scared this wonât happen. With all the early votes, registrations up, all the money towards Dems one would think this bodes well for us. I really really donât want to be disappointed.
Anyone else consider Issaâs name on that âendangeredâ list as a major indicator of change we all hoped for and finally got?
Imagine if Republicans had their own Beto, or a young conservative Kennedy or someone like Obama in 2016 instead of Trump⌠weâd be talking about Republican rule for decades.
But they picked Trump?
In retrospect we may see this whole insane Trump charade as a fast-track to a better future, if Republicans had someone of real substance available, it would be a much bigger mess,
Although it is hard to imagine anyone of substance actually attracting Trumpâs cult to the ballot box, that substance itself is what they despise in the first place, and Trumpâs total dearth of anything worthy that might be called substance is exactly why he succeeded.
Go figure. the Politics of Fear and Loathing may have never occurred without Trump to lead it in the first place.
It took decades of FOX News brainwashing to reach the point that someone like Trump could rise to power.
2018 will prove to be one of the most clarifying elections in history on this point.
Weâll know soon enough, but my gut tells me this heavy early voting is due largely to disgust with Trump. The voter has his/her chance at revenge. And, I expect surprises in the Senate. Just as we had people who never voted who voted for Trump, I think we have non-voters voting for the House and Senate.
Still, Iâm holding my breath until results come in tomorrow night. Iâll be watching New Jersey and Virginia for early results. We could pick up a handful of House seats in just those two states alone.
Can we call you a blue voter?
In the Big Roulette Wheel of Democracy game, I have my money on 33 Blue. Iâd like to be wrong and have it land higher, but thatâs where Iâm at.
Do we know what the gender breakdown of early voters is?