I can see how it might cause trouble for the reporters. But I don’t see the problem for the FBI.
Republicans will say it’s a media conspiracy, of course. But hey, if a priest saw Trump giving Putin the nuclear football, they would call it a papist plot.
Well, I’m not saying there is one, but … if an agent working on X were to confirm (or ostentatiously not deny) some element of a story about X that the journalist was working on, would that be a “leak”?
Of course, I have to hope you’re right. Don’t know how many years I have left on this side of the grass, but I’m hoping it will get resolved before I fill my box in the VA cemetery alongside my late wife.
As recently as 30 min ago I might have agreed with you, but it’s beginning to look like the retirement of Kennedy has been engineered by the WH. Yes, he was planning retirement I know, but the timing is relevant.
There will be 5 justices willing to give Trump a get out of jail ticket. You heard it here.
There have been a lot of interesting developments in the #trumprussia scandal on the legal front.
Manafort
I haven’t read the transcript yet, but the hearing today in Judge Ellis’ court appears to have gone well for the Prosecution. FBI agent Pfeiffer appears to have clearly stated that the AP tried to fish the FBI for leaks but instead the FBI maintained discipline and got some information they followed up on relating to the storage locker. Other motions by the defense looking for dismissal were rejected. There is this matter of a change in venue that Ellis offered to the defense as a potential consolation prize, but it didn’t seem like the defense was that enthusiastic about the idea.
The appeals court is also in no hurry to rule on Manafort’s motion to get released before trial. Manafort continues to spend money on issues that go to an active criminal defense rather than cutting a deal. I believe Manafort’s strategy is to go full MAGA in the trial, repeat Fox talking points and see if they can get a juror on their side to get a mistrial. But this is a document case, as the Judge said. This really won’t require persuasive witness testimony. This is more textbook analysis of whether laws were broken based on the paper trail. It’s doubtful that a jury won’t convict Manafort, but there’s always in MAGA we trust.
I also read the search warrant, and the things that stood out to me are (1) the $10 million ‘loan’ from Deripaska which proves a long-standing relationship, (2) Manafort’s apparent desperate indebtedness in 2016 which speaks to a need for capital (to repay people?), and (3) that the search warrant makes clear references to suspected violations of the federal election campaign act (though Manafort is not presently charged with this). References to 52 USC 30121 appear on 4 different pages of this document. Those are the provisions that speak to the illegality of foreign nationals providing a thing of value to a political campaign.
What that tells me is that Mueller is seriously exploring an illegal foreign contribution scheme as one part of this scandal. Mueller has charged what he can most easily prove, but this would be another reason why Mueller wants Manafort to flip.
In addition, there is today’s article in Middle East Eye which outlines how closely aligned the incoming Trump gov’t was with the UAE and also Saudi Arabia. The reason for this is the constant lobbying by Tom Barrack, who has had historically close relations with the UAE and other Arab countries (he’s of Lebanese descent and speaks Arabic fluently). This passage caught my eye:
In July 2016, one month after he became Trump’s campaign manager, Manafort sent Barrack an email he had received from a Republican Party source about the removal of the reference to the alleged Saudi funding of the 9/11 bombers. The email was then forwarded on to Otaiba, along with Barrack’s comment that it was “really confidential but important. Please don’t distribute”.
“Paul. Something you can pass along to your friend Tom Barrack. I made certain that language that was anti the Saudi Royal Family was removed from the platform. It was inserted by AIPAC lobbyists and would have been a part of the 2016 Platform. When I saw the amendment that was passed in the subcommittee, I gave instructions to our political team to remove the language in the full committee."
What this tells me is that the Manafort-Barrack relationship while understood at a high level needs more consideration and review. How well did they know each other? Did they do favors for each other (big and small)? Did they know each other’s circle of business associate? For example, did Barrack know Oleg Deripaska? Viktor Vekselberg?
This might explain, in part, why Mueller extended the sentencing deadline for Flynn, as Flynn appears to have additional information for the investigation. My guess is that Flynn’s plan to build nuclear reactors all over the Middle East (which the Obama administration rejected as insane) is a real thing. It continues to be floated and pushed at some levels. It would require the removal of Russian sanctions as Russia would be providing a lot of the development. It also involved the UAE, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states. I would also surmise that Benjamin Netanyahu and wealthy Israelis connected to him are also in support of this plan. My guess is that this arrangement would be structured in a way to have big payoffs (read: bribes) for the personal interests of the key players (Trump et. al.).
I think Tom Barrack and his relationship with Paul Manafort have been under discussed and might be the key to understanding how the UAE, Israel and Russia all seemed to make the same offers of campaign help & campaign contributions to the Trump campaign, Trump inauguration, and GOP in exchange for policy changes.
Then there is the matter of George Papadopoulos. His sentencing is scheduled for September 7. He’s going to jail. Given that his wife, Simona Mangiante, has gone rogue, one wonders whether Mueller got all that he needed from Papado, and/or whether Papado proved less useful. I also wonder if Mangiante is creating her own angles here, as she was embedded with Russian agents well before she met Papado. My hunch is that Papado gave the Special Counsel everything he wanted, didn’t hold back, but is holding back from Mangiante because she can’t be trusted. I’m sure she has ways of contacting Russian intel.
“Being” for “begin” twice in this article. Not to mention the other problems. Please, TPM, hire a copy editor.
Jeez, thanks for the homework on this. I doubt I could have done it.
Jurists or jurors?
Another extraordinarily lucid commentary. Many thanks! There must be an exact poison arrow. The target must be perfect. Otherwise, no quarter.
“We are not going to ask jurors who they voted for,” Ellis said, and he
was not going to question them on what magazines they read.
Good news for Manafort, I think.
All they need is one anti-Mueller Juror for a hung jury.
I think she (Mangiante) absolutely has ties to Russian intel. Close ties.
And now, after playing to the Trump/Nunes/ FOX grandstand, Manafort’s lawyer has had the nerve to ask for a change of venue, to get the case away from him. Manafort’s lawyers, who refused to allow the consolidation of both the Virginia and DC cases to proceed in DC. They want the case to be tried in front of a Wyoming or West Virginia jury and in front of an even more pro Trump judge, they are willing to take the chance that they get some no nonsense middle of the road type instead of the publicity seeking Judge Ellis.
U R werry crever grasshopper.
Yes, it could be. Unless you’re an FBI agent in New York passing information to Rudy Giuliani, in which case there’s “Nothing to see here, move along.”
Well, no one ever said life was excessively fair!
Basically, the only hope Manafort’s team sees is to get as much evidence as they can excluded any way they can so they’re throwing everything against the wall in the hopes that something might stick. this is generally an indication that they are aware that their client is screwed beyond belief. (See the “Hail Mary” comments elsewhere.) The less successful they are in excluding evidence the more likely they may seek a plea deal at some point in the future.