Discussion for article #229373
His internal poll says he’s up 1. Well he sounds like another Romney. I hope they are right but from what I have read, he’s going down
Bad sign that his own internal poll shows him up by 1. Internal polls are generally junk science. This is the classic last play of someone that knows they are about to lose. I hope that he can pull it out, but I am getting very skeptical about this one.
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Internal polls are just as good, and probably better than public polls (after all, they are how parties decide how to spend their money). However, they are selectively released. If he was down by 5, they might have sat on it, but this might help GOTV.
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Exactly Ralph. During the 2012 election, while all of those polls showed Romney neck and neck with the President, their internal polls never showed that close of a race, and in the end the President’s internal polls turned out to be much closer to the results of the election than any external poll did.
I disagree. Perhaps they released more, but the one page memo is a simple top line report of their findings. Did they release the questions, the order, any “push polling”, etc.? I think that there are two types of internal polls - those that give a very real look into the dynamics of the race at that moment and others that are made to create an impression for the voters. In my opinion, the ones released at this stage of the campaign tend to fall into the latter category. Just my two cents, and I hope that I am wrong.
Here’s a look at the Arkansas Senate race under the media monitoring microscope. These five data driven facts provide some insight into the upcoming vote:Will online media have a significant impact on the election?