Discussion: Even With Biden In The Game, The Democratic 2020 Field Seems Wide Open

Wide open indeed. Of the two current frontrunners, Bernie Sanders comes off as the George McGovern of 2020 whereas Joe Biden looks like he could be the next Walter Mondale. If the Democrats can’t see past these two, God help us.

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Fluff story. The field won’t be well-defined until November/December. The Iowa Caucuses will be the first winnowing.

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It’s like the Kentucky Derby - tons of horses start out with a grunch that have like no chance.

Must be good money in running for president.

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I agree it’s not exactly an electrifying development. But I had in fact read that Biden’s entrance might shake a few of the really long shots off the tree, and if that hasn’t happened it’s arguably of some interest to people who really dive deep into this stuff.

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It’s great to see Elizabeth Warren calling Joe Biden out. If anyone is qualified to call out his chicanery in very clear terms, it’s her. Bernie won’t have to lift a finger on the debate stage - she’ll take him out at the knees.

Within hours of Biden’s announcement, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) was needling him for his past positions supportive of Wall Street, while she and other Democratic contenders chided his high-dollar fundraising in appeals to their own small donor bases.

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Wide open to half a dozen candidates realistically.

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Sure, but which half-dozen?

Based on current polling, I’d guess Biden, Bernie, and Harris are in the “have a real shot at it” category at the moment.

Buttigieg looks good right now but not yet clear whether he has staying power. Warren seems underrated and it seems like she might be poised to break out at the debate…but I also wouldn’t be surprised if she doesn’t. Beyond that I dunno.

In other words, the pool of “real contenders” isn’t really settled yet, and may not be for a while – So in that sense it does seem wide-open.

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Having voted in and lived thru 1972 primary, Bernie is no George McGovern. On the other hand I do see the similarities between Mondale and Biden. Forty five years later to see Biden as Mondale, ummm, me thinks Biden is too old and too old school.

I think with Biden in we finally have a 90% set field. I don’t think there will be another big name added to the Democratic primary race. (As an aside, I suppose HRC could get in, seeing as how she has pretty much been vindicated by Mueller Report and she had to look at Biden’s launch video with great amusement b/c he stole her msg, which he had previously thrown a bit of shade at, but alas, that’s a long shot hope).

Biden’s entry also coincided with what I think is a bit of an inflection point in that voters have a little better knowledge of the other candidates in the race and what they stand for as Presidential candidates. I think Warren, Harris, Pete, Beto will all move up a bit. I do expect a wide open race. That’s good for Biden, because if he goes out and proves it in debates (and he has delivered some big time performances in his past) and shows discipline on the stump, then I think he will gain the confidence of voters. However, if Biden waffles into his perpetual Hamlet state, then people will look elsewhere.

I look at 6 major candidates: Biden, Beto, Bernie, Buttigieg, Harris, Warren. Two on the bubble: Castro and Klobuchar.

I saw an interesting article in the NYT yesterday. It was about the Dem town halls post-Mueller Report. The articles indicate that most Dems believe Trump deserves to be impeached but worry about unintended political consequences. They don’t want it to be a distraction. In essence, when you cross-reference against the WAPO poll that over 60% of Dems support impeachment, I interpret it to mean that Dem voters will support impeachment if leadership lays out a clear path and shows they believe in it, because lord knows Trump deserves it. But they want it done right. They need direction on a path forward from leadership. The risk for impeachment skeptic Dems, though, is that Dem voters have noticed Trump’s attempts to eviscerate oversight and the rule of law. They don’t want to see Dems getting beaten down and made to look weak like that. They believe in the rule of law, so although Pelosi has some room and latitude to structure oversight the way she wants, if Trump blows up those plans (which he is doing btw) then her position falls apart and she’ll have to get off her straw man choice of 'investigate v ‘impeach now!’ and open a formal impeachment inquiry in order to be able to effectively investigate Trump.

What was equally interesting, however, is that although most of the questions were focused on ‘kitchen table’ issues, it wasn’t small bore stuff. These questions included m4a, GND, and I assume big education plans as well. Prescription drug price controls aren’t exactly small bore either, though it’s something that center-left folks tend to feel a bit more comfortable talking about. These issues divide Dems more than does impeachment. The root is the same, however: politics and fear of the GOP. Pols don’t go big b/c they fear the price tag, ability to sell to the people and how they’ll be demonized by the GOP. I observed that after the tax bill passed that Dems would be less fearful of such things, and that seems to be the case now, perhaps more quickly than I had imagined.

In addition, the typical town hall attendee skews older and better educated than the average voter. Young people and minorities are much more pro-impeachment and pro-big deal programs (health care, environment, gun control) than the 40-64 voter. It was the heightened participation of younger/POC voters that gave the Dems their 2018 win per the recent census study.

All of this tells me that Warren, Harris, Beto and Castro are much more aligned with the pulse and direction of the Democratic Party electorate than are Biden, Bernie, or Buttigieg. There is no political cost for a Democratic candidate to come out in favor of impeachment. Over 60% of Dems support it out of the gate directionally. The other 40% aren’t going to castigate a pro-impeachment candidate. They agree. They just don’t think it’s politically practical. But the current candidates (save Swalwell) don’t have a vote in the House so they’re literally playing with ‘House Money’. [Note: Pete’s a bit of a special case b/c rhetorically he connects with folks, but substantively he doesn’t have much yet].

On domestic programs, there’s no harm in going big rhetorically but showing some flexibility in how you get there. The GOP derides this as ‘socialism’ but things like uber wealth taxes, a path to m4a and a directional commitment to GND that parallels Kennedy’s ‘man to the moon’, gun control are popular. Impeachment is also popular among Dems.

Biden will have some challenges dealing with what the electorate really wants. What kind of policy chops does his team have? Can he follow through on the logical direction of his launch video and say that ‘Trump deserves to be impeached and that the House should consider it’? Does he favor M4A or GND? In Bernie’s case, I think he has to show that Pete’s criticism of him that the ‘novelty has worn off’ is off the mark. Bernie will need to do something to grow his vote share. Coming out for impeachment would’ve been a good move. Laying out a new plan on m4a that shows a clearer, less disruptive path would also be a good move. But that doesn’t appear to be his style or brand.

People want to beat Trump, first and foremost. However, I observe that the electability question among Dems is a bit more nuanced. They’re looking at it from the perspective of which candidate can bring together and max out the anti-Trump coalition, rather than who can pick off Trump voters. They view Trump voters as a cult and a lost cause for the most part. So Biden, for all his purported strengths, isn’t going to win by saying he can bring Trump voters in. Ditto for Bernie. You need an agenda that naturally attracts an O to T voter back to the Dems without sacrificing the primary target: voters who are already aligned to voting Democratic but need to get out and vote. This is how the Dems did it in 2018 and the voters still seem to have the same mindset for 2020, and that’s a good thing in my view.

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I’d say that about half of the current crop will be gone by the second debate.

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Aside from name comparisons, I’m not seeing the issues here.

Biden is an old, white male Democrat. That’s about the limit of any comparison between him and Mondale. Mondale was an old school liberal of the type that has basically gone extinct at the upper levels of the Democratic Party.

As for Sanders/McGovern. A lot has changed in the nearly 50 years since McGovern was routed. Let’s not forget it only took 16 years for the right wing of the GOP to go from losing in the rout of 1964 to Reagan winning in 1980.

Many Democrats fall into the trap of thinking they “understand” the electorate, and that there are fixed limits about what is possible. And that these fixed limits persist, without regard to whatever else is going on. My counter-argument would be: if history teaches us anything, it should be that no fixed, complex system persists forever in the same form.

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My take. The younger voters – who have been so energized in their opposition to all things Trump/GOP – are going to be a major force behind the selection. I like Beto, but he’s going to have to up his rage factor, land some real punches, and nail down some solid wonk to make the cut. The charm alone won’t do it. And shouldn’t.

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Biden, Beto, Bernie, Buttigieg, Harris and Warren unless some others break outta the pack.

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I see Beto and Buttigieg as zero-sum though.

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Money alone will keep them in after others have dropped out.

Booker.

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I think he’s in for 2028 or at least 2024.

There is no real Democratic frontrunner. It’s way too early. Biden and “Bernie” have name recognition. That’s the reason they lead the pack. Time will tell who are the survivors.

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Sure. But Booker really hasn’t distinguished himself IMHO. By the way, are there still name recognition polls lately? I don’t recall seeing any.

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