āI am the Trump candidate. Period. There is no other,"
Thatās bold.
Iām sure Iām not the only one at TPM who has donated to Ossoff (not least because when John Lewis comes knocking, I jump to it). This would be a great winābut Iām grateful for this piece because it manages expectations. So much hope has been poured into this fight that there is a risk of demoralization if it doesnāt pay off.
Keep it up Brucey. Those coattails are growing mighty ragged.
Hope for the best, expect the worse
At this moment the statement yells: I will support every hair-brained conspiracy from Breitbart that the president embraces, and will faithfully work to sustain any and all coverups emanating from the White House.
āThere is no otherā has a weirdly Hebrew Bible/Ten Commandments sound to it.
āBut this is not what we would define as a marginal district.ā
Considering the current dynamics, and the outrageous results of the absurd election we just suffered, can ANYONE speculate conclusively that ANY district is predictable?
People arenāt talking much about the non-voter issue and we all should be. Even in this red district there are more than enough non-voters to swing the pendulum permanently progressive, but they are mostly disgusted or at best disinterested in party politics.
Not enough time to get new voters registered, but surely enough time to motivate the registered NON-voters to get back in the game.
āI am the Hate candidate. There is no other.ā
thatās no funā¦
Itās either genius or really, really stupid. Itās Epsilon semi-Moron stupid, in fact.
Iām going with stupid for the time being.
Iām hoping the Trump guy gets into the run off with Ossofff. Then Democrats have a shot
In order to secure a win in this bright red district we will need to define what a win is, then exploit it to drive fear into red districts everywhere. A list of what I think a win is in this case follows in more or less desirability order:
- Win the seat with a victory by a progressive democrat
- Win with a centrist democrat
- Win with a DINO
- lose to the R but by a much smaller margin than expected
- cause the Rs to run a moderate centrist non sycophantic Trump Supporting candidate
- drive voters to turn out in much higher than anticipated volumes
All of these could be used to throw fear toward red incumbents everywhere
These would not be a win: - low voter turnout indicative of apathy
- a blow out by a RINO
- a blow out by any R
I think #1 is unlikely from my superficial reading of the districts demographics. We need to encourage the Dems to run a strong candidate that will have the best appeal with these voters. Having a progressive (or as they would say - Libertard) in an overwhelmingly R House representing this district is not that important and is more than likely not sustainable in 2018.
I donāt think a Democratic win is likely. But what is possible, even probable, is that many traditionally addicted GOPāers are going to vote for a progressive Democrat in this election. The GOPāer thatās sure to win is a Trump toady. After a year or so Trumps āpoliciesā are going to have their predicted effect" good for nobody but the very wealthy and powerful. Thereās sure to be a few more scandles in Trumpās White House and the price of those peaches the Georgians like and the Vidallia onions everyone likes are sure to rise when college kids start picking them in lieu of booted Mexicans.
Give this one time to get better.
In case anyone missed my point (stated in my post above #13 I think). My desire to throw fear into incumbent Rs is not to torture them (as nice as that may be) but to drive them to jump ship and get rid of Trump so that we shorten the ātime to get betterā.
ātold TPM that Democrats are focused on turning out their base and hoping that enthusiasm among Republicans will be low.ā
Even if thatās the case, donāt talk about it. Donāt give the opponent your playbook.
Sigh.
As long as heās also, in reality, talking to ALL the voters - including the moderate GOPers who voted (or were open to voting) for HillyBob. We need them in the Coalition for the Enlightenment full-time, not just for this seat.
Letās not fall for the ārun a moderate who will attract R crossover votesā theory. There simply is very little evidence in recent electoral politics that this phenomenon actually exists. I also feel that there is a huge risk, underestimated at TPM, of the younger progressive generation simply not connecting to a Dem party that doesnāt have the guts to stand for something clearly and authentically liberal, and we could end up losing a whole generation to the politics of protest and marginalization. I also think in this climate that Rs are paradoxically more likely to vote for, or to respect, a D who stands for clear values and makes no bones about it.
Democrats here in Georgia have been told many times we can win. Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter ran good races for the Senate and Governor position in 2014 but lost by substantial numbers. Those numbers could have been overcome with a good turn out by African Americans who did not vote. Itās the perennial problem here. So many promises have been broken to that community that they donāt believe it makes a difference if Democrats or Republicans are in charge.
It would be great if TPM could give us some useful voting stats on the district, for example (1) R and D voting registration numbers in the district; (2) R and D turnout in 2012, 2014 and 2016; (3) turnout changes that Ds would need to win the special election. So, for example, if D turnout stayed the same as in 2016, while R turnout dropped to 2014 levels, what would be the outcome; and (4) how much R crossover vote for HRC in 2016?