Do you people who write this drivel and then post a cryptic note on Twitter actually get paid?
Yesterday, you folks were championing another non-random, (only landline and automated) poll that had the exact opposite result.
Make up your freaking minds or try discussing this issues and not making this a farce of a horse-race. Or are you folks not capable of dealing with actual issues.
UNSUBSCRIBING!
I just donāt understand the problem. The headline is correct. Democratic Senate Challenger ahead 45-41 in Pennsylvania Poll. Iām glad TPM shares some polling results, but itās not inaccurate or horserace reporting to report on the results of polling. What am I missing?
I donāt know about @commenterperson, but for me, the problem is three fold:
- These are individual polls with differing methodologies.
- As Norman Ornstein has pointed out, for ācollege pollstersā like Emerson, Monmouth or Quinnipiac, accuracy is perhaps not as important as notoriety.
Norman Ornstein
ā@NormOrnstein
What many poll-watchers know: Quinnipiac polls are about publicity, not accuracy:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/how-did-marist-monmouth-suffolk-and-quinnipiac-get-known-for-political-polling/2016/08/02/15429962-532b-11e6-bbf5-957ad17b4385_story.html
- Unlike Sam Wang, most poll trackers aggregate their polls using the average, instead of the median. So, a gross outlier can move the average by an unduly amount by itself. Like taking the average income of a room full of people, one of whom is a millionaire, and the rest are white and blue collar workers. The median is a much more informative measure of central tendency in these cases, which is why Sam Wang employs the poll results medians.
In short, what the TPM polls lack in context and utility, they more than make up for in providing amusement.
While the points you make are absolutely true, I still donāt see the harm in posting the results of individual polls particularly when itās stated that itās a single poll showing these results. Plus, TPM always makes a point of noting what TPM Polltracker aggregate. And I tend to think TPM readers tend to be so much more informed than the average voter. But I guess the horserace stuff used to bother me a lot more too. This year Iām just so damn grateful the media may be inadvertently keeping potential Democratic voters from lulling themselves into a false sense of security in which itās OK to vote for a third party candidate or not vote at all.
I donāt see the harm either. But it still wonāt stop me from enjoying the taste of a full-on needling. Like the guy who got seen leaving the hoochy-coochy show by his minister: āReverend, I was ashamed to be there, but not enough to leave.ā
Iām just glad to see Toomey down in my state. We got the Governorship, now weāll have both Senators and Pa. is not rated as a āLikelyā pickup state, I believe 3 others are so add Pa to those, of course taking the WH and weāre there.
Toomeyās bombing the TV airways in Philadelphia with ads about ā¦protecting cops, cops, cops and the Iranian deal with images of Muslims, missiles and mushroom clouds.
And whatās even more comforting is that FiveThirtyEight gives Monmouth a rating of āA+ā in its ledger of pollster ratings. Emerson gets a āBā, fwiw.
The Emerson poll WAS an outlier, but this Senate race is a horse race at this point, with McGinty having the edge.
Weāll also know a lot more about these Senate (and House) races in about a month - as experienced hands like Stuart Stevens have noted, down ballot drag tends to accelerate as election day draws near.
Ohio is a bit of a puzzler to me. Thought Strickland was a popular Governor, but Portman seems to have him in hand. Have they run the "vote for Portman is a vote for Trumpās agenda ads yet?
Plucky, havenāt seen anything on Gray/Paul yet. Does Gray have a chance?
Iām optimistic that weāll pick up Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin in a walk, but I also think we have good shots at Missouri, North Carolina and maybe Georgia or Florida. Iowa and Ohio seem unlikely but, if we donāt lose Nevada (which appears hopeful) we might have 52-54 seats next year.
Those are the desperate actions of someone who knows they are losingā¦
I must be missing those because I think Iāve only seen two of his ads.
From what Iāve heard on the news sites on MSNBC, Kasichās ground game is working it. His organization is very strong. That seemed to be the conventional wisdom right after the GOP gathering in Cleveland. Heās still very popular and could only be a help for Portman.
I think youāve just inadvertently surfaced the perfect metaphor for Republicans who repeatedly denounce Trump, but are still āsupporting the nomineeā ( ā¦but ānot āendorsingā Donald Trump as suchāā¦except sort of exactly, since heās the nomineeā¦ but not quite because āsupportingā is different then āendorsingāā¦but actually really maybe it isnāt, and probably soā¦ but also maybe not quiteā¦but yes, definitely possibly, no question about itā¦ouch, my brain hurtsā¦)
Hillaryās Opponent is poisoning the well for all Republicans. This is a good thing, imho. I just hope the polls are accurate; the only one that really counts will not be held until November 8th.
the problem is my blood pressure, pluck. With every poll thatās bad for dems, I die a little. 
The new Clinton wave meets the old Clinton wave.
Hillary needs every Dem Senator that we can muster, keep pushing everybody.
Pennsylvania is a GOTV state. You canāt simply Tweet the effort. Hillary has 32 field offices, Trump 2. The largest population of the state is in the SE region. Hillary is going to take PA. McGinty will be there with her.