Eric, who?
Despite the usual âDemocrats in disarrayâ messaging in the media, we actually seem to be doing pretty well.
Both campaigns were extremely well funded and well run. Arthur painted Corlew as being part of the problem in Jefferson City and closely tied to some billionaire Republican donors who own the state government. Arthurâs presented herself as being a teacher strong on educational issues. Corlew, true to his billionaire Republican donor roots painted Arthur as being a wild eyed ultra liberal, socialist baby killer. He presented himself as being good for business.
My sense is the general public is getting tired of Dems being painted as wild eyed, ultra liberal, socialist baby killers. They are looking for somebody who will look out for them.
I thought the race was going to be close. The district is traditionally solid Republican. Republicans should be worried about Missouri. While Arthur referenced Greitens she did it in a way that tied both of them to some pretty sleazy Jefferson City republican operatives. Of course the local TV stations are very conservative. They took Arthurâs ad money but the coverage was decidedly pro Corlew.
Yeah. As theyâve done with Bush & Cheney since January 2009, Rs will pretend he never existedâŚ
Facts matter, and the false media narrative of Democrats in disarray will harm the GOP in the end because their voters be complacent in November. Democrats are energized and ignore the media narrative.
Arthur focused on labor rights and income inequality
Well, now âŚ
This district is north of KC and on the border with Kansas? Would what did/is happening in KS have an effect on the race?
And would those money men be Rex and Humphreys?
I am happy the national narrative tries to tie Arthurâs win to Greitensâ resignation.
That means a lot of Republicans in other states are going to lose this fall because I think Arthur would have won without the Greitens scandal and resignation. Some Republicans are going to stumble into a late election discovery. Voters are tired of them.
A lot of people in Missouri are sick of living is a state set adrift by libertarian leaning Republicans and the hacks they have hired. They want a higher minimum wage, better schools, health care and a growing economy. All of which require a government that is trying to do something other than lowering taxes or taking cues from national Republicans. Trump has galvanized rank and file Democrats all across Missouri.
Greitens is a potential double whammy to Republicans. The question is, how many will stay home to punish Hawley and others who more or less forced out Greitens to lessen the damage among many voters. In so doing, however, they probably damaged themselves among other voters, who may be lesser in number but who are much more certain to vote Republican.
Yeah, but the RCP averages have been going to hell for the last month.
So, while most news seems to actually be good right now (contrary to DEMOCRATS IN DISARRAY OMG!!! articles), the polling isnât looking all that great.
The âDemocrats in disarrayâ meme reminds me of the scene in Casablanca where Major Strasser dismisses something Rick Blaine did as âjust another example of American blundering,â to which Captain Renault replies, âI shouldnât be too sure about American blundering, Major. I was with them when they blundered into Berlin in 1918.â
(Historical note: The Allies did not occupy Berlin in 1918.)
For Ds, this is the best news of the night, not that anything else was negative. It shows that in suburban districts everywhere, the R brand is in tatters as they rally around Trump. Suburban women, even with R lean, see that as a capitulation. Hence, itâs no surprise that a woman D beat a male R by a mile. This kind of situation should be replicated for the foreseeable future.
So many women and suburban voters in general do not care about the economy as a voting issue this time around, which is the core of the Trump and R message. First, they donât give Trump and the Rs undue credit since things have been improving for years AND Trump didnât give Obama any credit. They adhere â intentionally or simply by a sense of fairness â that if someone doesnât give credit they shouldnât get it. Second, the Ds donât need a strong message since they are out of power and canât keep any promises anyway while Trump is in charge and/or the Rs control the state. So sending a message of disgust for the way Rs run things is all the Ds need to run on.
The messages to Ds in suburban districts are:
- Nominate a solid woman whenever possible, particularly against a man.
- Run against Rs rubber-stamping Trump and turning a blind eye to corruption and just general suffering.
- Promise clean governance and oversight.
- You donât have to say âImpeachmentâ. You can use âaccountabilityâ and then every time the Rs gripe about potential impeachment, they will be arguing for NO accountability.
Great Win! Yay Democrats! Letâs keep up the hard work and GOTV this fall. 
The turnout in the Arthur case was 20% of the electorate, which is pretty big in a special election held in June with nothing much else on the ballot. That means Democrats are excited. If things continue this fall that excitement will probably carry Democrats across Missouri. Remember Democrats outnumber Republicans but Democrats only show up in Presidential elections. If they show up in the midterms Republicans are going to be sucking wind.
Trump: We had a disadvantage as Putin wasnt allowed to participate. This is illegal.
BbbbutâŚrepublican support for TrumpâŚor something.
And Major Strasser would have known that, hence would have replied, âYour allies were never in Berlin in 1918.â
Capt. Renault would have known it, too. And the screenwriters probably knew it. Indeed, I bet a lot of the people in the audience knewâthe movie came out only 24 years after WWI endedâbut they didnât care.
If I remember correctly, Jack Warner was under the gun to get it filmed and released so they actually started filming before they had a script. It was written and delivered to the set almost daily as shooting was going on. And, of course, it turned out to be a classic.