Discussion for article #244613
No surprise if Cruz wins yooge over Trump here. Those so-called Trump voters may not care enough to caucus and vote.
- A win in Iowa is really meaningless.
- Cruz or Trump over the vanilla GOP field at this point in the conflict really looks bad for the future of the GOP as a presidential party.
That’s GOP’er problem. Cruz will never be Prez so if they’ve gone so far over the edge that’s who they nominate…well sit back and enjoy.
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Not without meaning, but I agree Iowa’s demographics are decidedly different than the rest of the nation… And it’s a caucus not a primary.
And the winner here is…usually disputed and not very indicative.
…but it does mean delegates for some asshole.
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I disagree. A win for Trump in IA is pretty huge, especially if he goes on to win NH, SC, and NV as he’s poised to do. It sets the tone for the rest of the campaign and he would more than likely be billed by the media as not only the frontrunner, but the likely nominee. That would have a very negative affect on the other candidates’ voters as they begin to believe there is no point in voting because Trump already has it sewn up.
On the other hand, it really isn’t a big deal if Cruz wins and then Trump takes NH, SC, and NV. In order for an IA win to be a big deal for Cruz, it would have to catapult him into a good showing in NH and a win in SC or NV.
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That makes sense but what about the media as a variable? Most people have no idea what Iowa does or doesn’t mean. A Trump loss would be a huge story—blah blah vulnerable blah blah what now—Cruz would be all over the news, Trump would be hugely rattled, it’d be quite a hubbub. Couldn’t it shake things up enough to make a difference? I know I’m a cockeyed optimist about Trump flaming out, btw. If anyone has info about a group you can join to deal with that I’d be grateful.
The headline is surprising. 2 weeks ago Cruz was ahead by 10 points. Now he is up by only 3 points. The article doesn’t address the margin for error. I am not a Trump fan but I do like accurate reporting.
tbf, this is probably the most boring crowd that Trump’s had in months. They weren’t responding so he wrapped it up early. Compare and contrast to the crowds the other day when he did two wild Iowa rallies on the same day.
I think he just chose a bad day to go see Trump.
I looked again and the margin of error was 4%. This means that Cruz and Trump are now tied.
Trump: “It is so sad Cruz has this problem with his mother’s nationality… It would be a shame if he won and then turned out to be inelligible for POTUS”
Could be right, but what I took away from Silver’s article is the tiny percent of people (3 of 60) in his section who put their hands up when asked who was “definitively” going to caucus for Trump. The raucousness of the crowd may have been more a function of the party atmosphere that seems to surround Trump events rather than serious voter demeanor. If people are going to Trump events to have a blast and be entertained they may very well not be inclined to caucus when it counts.