The polling is all over the place, from 6 to 11 points. She is going to win, but the real question is how “bigly?” 
A double digit win probably gives Dems the Senate and nearly gives them the house.
Trump: That’s a HUUUUUGE move on my part; I cut down the deficit in half. As more and more accusers come forward, higher my bump is. Crooked Hillary will now be scared. Amerika knows the liars from Trumpers.
“Clinton’s lead has not changed since CNN/ORC last polled likely voters nationwide in late September/early October, resting at +6 in the head-to-head match and +5 in a four-way poll.” Really? I don’t trust this poll with no movement in 4 weeks
Everyone’s got to have a little movement at least once every few days.
The CNN/ORC polls have been all over the place and have generally trended in Trump’s direction, particularly at the battleground state level. This is a good result for HRC in this survey, particularly because CNN has adjusted its LV model to show it leaning Dem or no change. But the notion that there has been no change towards Hillary since the end of September? That doesn’t really hold up. It’s just good to get this data point out of the way. There is a lot of junk polling this year, but it does seem to be a tad better than 2012 polling, which was horrifically bad.
A few sites seem to be trying to keep the horserace thing going more than anything else at this point. It is in their interest to do that.
Even then if it is leaning Trump and coming out this bad it is similar to the ABC then. Or at least in that range.
It could be statistical noise “aliasing” as no movement in the trendline. It’s only two data points, so I wouldn’t too much into it. It’s well within the range of other polls around those dates.
A 4 point win by BHO in 2012 yielded a 332-206 EC result. A 5-6 point HRC win would yield an EC result in the range of what is being currently predicted. I personally think her margin of victory is gonna at least be 7-8 points.
…every few days
May need some more roughage there. Or Taco Bell.
I think it will actually be a bit higher than that. I’d say more like 9-12, and I would bet on the higher end. I tend to think she’ll get the 1-2 points pollsters tend to miss from minority and young voters. Plus, I’m still betting there’s a good 1-2 points in there from women voters who won’t dare admit to anyone, particularly their husbands, that they’re voting for Clinton. I also believe undecideds will break for Clinton.
That’s why I threw that definitive qualifier “at least” in there. 
The news today about Obamacare premium hikes in 2017 might dampen prospects in the suburbs a little bit though.
It might, but I tend to think that Trump is due a new meltdown or scandal that will undoubtedly take that story out of the headlines.
Josh’s note today was instructive…basically all the polls in 2012 had the odds in favor of Romney by a couple points or more. Now, why exactly is an interesting question…you expect some polls to be off to one side or the other just based on how they do their polling, but everyone should be within a couple points of either side the final output in the end, and more or less evenly distributed. The fact that they were all off to one side means everyone did something wrong last time around.
The big question is if everyone is doing the same thing this time. It doesn’t appear so, as the Clinton polling seems pretty set at this point, but there are a couple polls that are pretty wild. The LA Times poll is different than the others (and strongly affected by a couple of their minority members who are going for Trump), but that one has trended towards Clinton by a few points over the month. This one being lower than a month ago may be noise, or it may mean all the yelling hasn’t had the effect the other polls are measuring. And, there’s movement in a lot of the Senate races towards the Democrats, which is probably meaningful but we won’t know if it’s real until next week.
Really, taking it all in it seems like the Democrats are in good shape to win the presidency and at least tie the Senate (which means they control it). If the polling is off like last time, then the Democrats will get +2 points on everything, which puts the House close enough that maybe they can ignore the crazy Republicans and we get a functioning government. If it’s the other way then Clinton might be on her own; I don’t think any view of the polling supports Trump winning without a major change (both IBD and Rasmussen are obviously biased and doing push polling). And we have a lot of unknowns…how is voter suppression going to play out? How will people running from Trump affect down ballot races? Those are huge questions that could have major effects.
Fortunately, we only need to guess for two weeks, and then we’ll know the answer.
I just heard on the local news that voter turnout today on the first day of early voting in Texas was unprecedented. They had lines that went for hours in Corpus Christi, which has a predominately Hispanic population. It’s breaking all records all over the state.