Discussion: Clinton's National Lead Over Trump Shrinks From 9 Points To 3 In New Poll

If it’s not a close race, people will stop paying attention. Too much is lost if it looks like Clinton will run away with it.


The story arc requires drama and suspense. Otherwise, nobody cares and nobody makes any money. The presidential cycle is like the World Series, the Superbowl and the Olympics all wrapped up into one orgiastic money changing fist fuck. Of course the polls will contract. Of course Hillary will “stumble” and Trump will surge. The system requires it.


The issues aren’t going away but the focus on the email server will. Remember congress is about to go on a 7 week vacation. Without the Republican committee chairs the email server story will move to the back of the meme bus. Her polling will return to its previous level soon enough.


Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump among registered voters by just three points, 42-39, in a new national McClatchy-Marist poll released on Wednesday.

well Cleveland should be interesting…

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Too early to start sweating every bad poll or drinking champagne with every good poll. Let’s see where we are in mid-September. That said, the key decision for HRC is her VP. My gut tells me Warren would move the needle in her favor among white working class voters and Stein fans. But no doubt there is an alternative that would be positive, too.


Maybe you guys can keep telling yourselves that Clinton has it in the bag, and maybe you’ll still believe it when President-elect Trump gives his victory speech. And if you’re really lucky, maybe the feeling will last until the inauguration and beyond.

We ignore Trump’s likelihood of winning at our own peril.

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She needs to pick the best candidate.

When third-party candidates are added to the question, it’s Clinton 40, Trump 35, Libertarian Gary Johnson 10, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 5.

While she shouldn’t be complacent, simply the third party inclusion isn’t hurting her as much as Trump. Now Philadelphia might change things, but Trump needs Libertarian votes more so than…

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No mention of the Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Hillary with a double-digit lead? I guess that doesn’t fit the horserace narrative: http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0ZS2MO


‘brass tacks’: Trump should get his rightful bump post convention. However its 2016 and the current presidential nominee of the modern day GOP has a tendency to burn through any capital that he has earned.

again Cleveland will be interesting.


Even though both Ipsos and Quinnipiac receive an A- rating from 538, they did a piece on the Q poll and ignored the Reuters/Ipsos poll. I don’t know the rating for the polling firm in this piece.

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Hillary’s campaign is in its death throes. Obviously.

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Ipos/Reuters was the most accurate polling of 2012. But the media only reports on bad methodology polling companies.

The media has hopped all over three new Quinnipiac University polls showing Trump leading Clinton in Pennsylvania and Florida, but the problem is that Quinnipiac is rigging their polls for the best possible Trump outcome.

Quinnipac did not even make the top 28 polls in accuracy in 2012


Perhaps they are Rasmussen wannabe?

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Stein is struggling to get onto the ballot in many states and likely won’t be able, logistically, to get 5% even if that many people wanted to vote for her.


Remember the polls were all showing how Romney was going to beat Obama in 2012? Yeah. Me neither. And Romney was (puke) “saner” than Trump. We needn’t get too worked up over this IMHO.


Quinnipiac has an A- rating in 538.

I’m beginning to see several polls here and there showing the race tightening. Too early to show a true trend, but it is still worrisome.

Maybe this will remind Democrats of the fact that tribalism shows that GOPers would vote for Mussolini / Mao / Stalin / David Duke / Satan if he were the GOP candidate? They wouldn’t even bat an eye.

That is to say, almost all Republicans will vote for anyone as long as there’s an ® next to the name.

There’s still a chance Trump could win, folks. Complacency and overconfidence could very well kill us in this election.


If I am reading the Q story link, it’s to a May 2016 story. Really?

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And Trump Leads in some key battleground States. I understand why Trump has negatives but I’ve never seen a mainstream political candidate with the type of negatives Hillary Clinton has. Especially a Democratic candidate.

This is dangerous delusion. Just stop. This is a reality based community.

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