I agree. From huge leads for Clinton & Feingold in the last poll, to modest leads this time (in the Marquette poll).
Seems like “polling noise” to me. Probably the truth is somewhere in between. However, not surprised Russ Feingold is chained to Hillary’s polling numbers. Lots of Wis. voters approach politics that way. That’s why Ron Johnson’s numbers were very close to Scott Walker’s numbers in 2010.
No.
Actually, the funniest poll I saw said 4% of Trump supporters are going to vote for him though they answered “No. I don’t trust Trump to have control of nukes.” Now if you believe he without good reason would blow up the world or even just one country, why the hell would you vote for him under any conceivable circumstance?
Yeah, we’ll see. Walker ran state-wide too, and had no problem winning. I own a small house in mid-state, near Fond du Lac. All my wife’s people are pretty solidly Republican. That’s the district of Glenn Grothman, WI-6. He’s pretty much as red as they come. And, please, don’t confuse gerrymandering with a cause. It is a symptom. If you KNOW what a certain electorate will do, you can gerrymander. Democrats cannot win an election outside of cities anymore and that allows them to gerrymander. If you want gerrymandering to stop, find out how to appeal in the country. Democrats cannot do that now. And the policies of D party will guarantee no victories in rural turfs going forward.
I guess getting outdistanced by Minnesota with Dem governance instead of the Republican nutjobs Wisconsin is being run by has the Wisconsinites wanting to bring down the entire nation with them.
You elected Walker three times, I rest my case.
OK, Monday is Labor Day - the traditional start of the final sprint to November. Clinton needs to kick it into gear and not coast in an effort to run out the clock. We need this to build a comfortable lead for her and the down-ticket races. It does little good if she limps across the final line with a R-controlled Senate, particularly with the Senate map in 2018. GOTV!!!
I trust fivethirtyeight.com as well Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. In other places she’s forecast to carry WI by 90%. But in fact the only poll that matters is the one on November 8.
Walker being re-elected has to do more with the power of the incumbent’s name and a well funded campaign than that person’s competence, past performance, etc. It happens regularly. Grassley will win Iowa because he’s a known quantity, Portman will win for the same reason, and so will Rubio. Doesn’t mean people approve of the candidate, but the low info voters who tune in two weeks before an election often carry the day.
I’m flabbergasted by all these Poll Trackers showing Trump’s support increasing of late, and Clinton’s decreasing, even if only by a few points. What in the world has Donald Trump done in the last couple weeks to merit more support? He continues to lie his ass off, he continues to flip-flop and confuse his only policy statement, and he continues to refuse to show his tax returns, using blatant lies as his excuse.
Meanwhile, the only thing that’s happened to HRC in the last couple weeks is the cacophony from the right about her so-called corruption and lying, when there hasn’t been a single substantive fact to validate those specious claims.
So why in hell is this thing getting closer? There is no legitimate reason whatsoever for Trump’s support to be any higher than the most basic GOP numbers. Not a penny more!
The teleprompter, he criticized earlier in the campaign, seems to keep him from going off script and saying things stupid and appears to be calming the GOTP a bit. Wonder how long he will use it since he hates it.
And there will be no teleprompter for the debates.
How about this instead - you want her to win? She needs our help. There should be a twitter and FB firestorm demanding DT’s tax returns. The media needs to be hounded on why they refuse to cover all the Trump scandals and lawsuits. Then after that donate, canvass and phonebank for her and down tickets dems. Otherwise we have to take some responsibility if she does not win
What has happened is non stop coverage about more emails, the Clinton Foundation and her health which is a campaign started by Trump. Do not underestimate Bannon. This is the most critical time of the election season. She could lose if the negativity continues unchallenged as it has this past month
Ron there isn’t much more she can do if the press continues to drag her doen with false narratives. Trump and the press made the Clinton Foundation a liability. And the sad thing is that most people won’t even check to see what it does. Yet there is nary a sound about Trump’s alleged “charities.”. Or what have you read or heard recently about the Trump University lawsuits for FRAUD and that in at least one of the two there are civil RICO charges included. Think about that for just a minute. We have a presidential candidate who has racketering charges pending and nothing - then we have a charitable Foundation that saves lives with money from wealthy donors who msybe had a meeting with Clinton as SOS with NO evidence there was anything given or taken in exchange. Which story dominates the news cycle
Then you have a media outlet (AP) who gives a false narrative that is repeated a thousand times over in a loop and said outlet admits they were wrong but will not do a correcton.
And then the Trump campaign throwing out a false story about her health. It is what Republicans do best - lie abd get away with it because we have a press who fails to hold them accountable or demand they explain or support their lies.
That is the problem. Not her stamina. Not her policy positions
This election is on Clinton if she loses.
No competent candidate should even be close to Trump.
This was my worst fear with Clinton and why I was a Bernie supporter. I was lambasted for it on here.
Right. As I said, nothing of substance. Just more lies.
Happily, I think Bannon is poised to have his own troubles. A guy like that can’t get to middle age without having cheated, lied and fucked over a herd of people. If it’s not his avoidance of paying state income taxes that scuttles him, it will be a parade of enemies with very ugly confessions about Bannon’s behavior.
He’s got one foot in the grave already. It’s only his hubris that makes him think he can be a clean national player with that much dirt in his background.
This election is on Clinton if she loses.
I’m sorry, but I recall your saying she was “done” about 6 weeks ago.
So, I don’t understand, if she was done 6 weeks ago, why use the conditional “if” now?
And why do you now want to play the victim? "This was my worst fear with Clinton and why I was a Bernie supporter. I was lambasted for it on here."
Maybe it’s not the Bernie support or your critique of the nominee that got you “lambasted.” Maybe it’s because you’re a petty hypocrite.
I wonder, though: What will your line be when Clinton takes a double-digit lead after the debates?
The tide is turning, yes. Walker has been in the upper 30% range in approval for a very long time now, more than a year I believe. So it seems to be a genuine feeling rather than a transient mood swing.
There is a lot of coverage in the state papers about the gerrymandering case that is likely to be heard by SCOTUS before too much longer. We think we’ve finally found a way to measure the effects of a gerrymander that judges have been looking for. It’s a complicated algorithm, so I won’t go into detail but it’s based on the percentage of wasted votes in each district. That is, the votes in excess of those necessary to elect a winning candidate and the percentage of votes for the losing candidates. Judges have long complained there is no unbiased method of measuring a gerrymander and this seems to fit the bill.
Our stupid election laws, recently passed by Walker and his ilk are systematically being thrown out in court. So that is also good news.
However, our Democratic Party remains feckless and spends most of it’s time reacting to the atrocities of the right and very little time finding a path out of this mess. We keep hoping and pleading for better from them, with luck we’ll get through to them soon.
Single-issue, anti-abortion voters.
The End Times are a bonus.
jw1
We all knew about the press going in. It is up to Hillary to seize control of the narrative and demonstrate she is not only competent but also trustworthy. She doesn’t have to sell me. She has to sell Chuck Todd and the other media clowns. That is going to be hard because they make money off a horse race.