Discussion: Clinton's Lead Over Trump Shrinks In CNN/ORC National Poll


When likely voters are polled on their preferences, Trump leads Clinton by one point, 49-48, in a head-to-head matchup. When third party candidates are added to the question Trump leads Clinton by two points, 45-43, among likely voters, with Johnson at 7 points and Stein at 2 points.

Outlier, people. Don’t panic. Not yet.


And yet it is maddening. For the horserace they want, the MSM is touting this poll wholesale this morning across the board. They’ve mentioned nothing about the new NBC poll (even MSNBC ignored it and spent half and hour discussing the CNN poll. It was, however, Moanin’ Joe…admittedly.), nothing about the electoral map, nothing about battleground states…etc.


Its their change from RVs to the LV screen. Typically, that switch is favorable to republicans, though there was some evidence that it wouldn’t be this year.

But, without knowing the details of how they made their screen, the poll is consistent with that switch in that it is also indicate a sizable enthusiasm gap among Dems. That is my biggest worry about this election cycle.

The other big concern I have here is there is a shift among favorable/unfavorable ratings…more people have a favorable rating of Trump, and more people have an unfavorable rating of Clinton.

That one just hurts my head, and I look squarely at the broader MSM for that one. No mention of the Bondi bribe story that twitter has been heating up over all weekend, and no mention of the fact that a trial against Trump for rape of a 13 year old starts in less than 2 weeks. This will be the third time he has been accused of rape/attempted rape in court and almost nobody is even aware of that.

Likewise, there as been zero coverage of him using foreign models illegally (largely under age as well), coaching them on how to lie to customs officials and federal immigration forms, while housing them in squalor and paying them next to nothing.

Bang him over the head with those three stories for a week or so…toss in bribing the AG (now governor) in TX too, and hiring illegal immigrants from Poland and then stiffing them for a little extra spice. Then lets see where his favorables are.

@sherlock1 Well ,duh!!! The NBC is the epitome of what they DON’T want. Not only is she ahead, but it literally shows no change. The very definition of “not news” is no change. Plus if you are going to screech about a non existent pivot for over a week…you want to see the “rewards” for your efforts. CNN/ORC poll shows that.


We have to consider the possibility that the Cinton campaign isn’t operating as effectively as it might. It seems to me that the priorities are:
(1) Find a way to stop Trump dominating the news stories, day in, day out.
(2) Find a way to communicate a pithy, positive narrative about HRC’s agenda.

As to (1), this can be achieved by getting Elizabeth Warren and Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders more actively involved in attacking Trump, and consistently using language people will understand. “Mentally unstable.” “Chicken.” “More loyal to Putin than to the American people.” “Scared of Putin.” Do not shrink from using these actual phrases, phrases that will generate debate. Refer to the fake doctor’s report, to the failure to release tax returns etc. Stick to the message.
As to (2), I have no idea. I don’t know. “Tough.” “Worker.” “Champion of justice.”


well that starts happening today. And could we all please remember the final outcome of 2012 Obama at 51 percent Romney 47.
The US today is just too polarized to see a much wider margin between Republican and Democrat.


We can call this an outlier if we want, but the truth is by allowing Trump to win every news cycle Clinton is shrinking into the shadows surrounded by clouds and subject to every possible meaningless attack by the New York Times or the AP. Inquiring minds want to know, who is running her campaign? The same team that ran Martha Coakley or Robin Carnahan’s horrible Senate campaigns?

Hillary has to become the energizer bunny focused like a laser on her positive message. She can’t rely on Trump falling apart, the media has shown it is going to do everything it can to prop him up.


Clinton does dominate the headlines and clickbait links for three things: her coughing jags and stroke symptoms, her smashed up Blackberries with State Department “smoking gun” Benghazi proof on them, and the “optics” of the Clinton Foundation’s possible. but unspecified. corruption.


My problem is I think the Clinton campaign decided to take time off to allow Trump to implode. It is impossible for Trump to implode. He has the active patronage of the mainstream media who will live feed every meaningless Trump townhall and will skip over his repeated examples of raw corruption.


The fact that the race is this close should not only be an embarrassment for Democrats, but should also indicate just how weak a candidate Clinton is. No one really cares for her. She cares only for herself and her career while pretending that she does things for the children. At least Trump isn’t a phony. He puts his ego front and center for all to see.

Except all those people that voted for her and made her win by margins even President Obama didn’t beat her by in the primaries


Clinton just has not put out an image, a vision, of what she IS and what we can be if she is President. She’s gotten all she will get out of what is wrong with Trump–anyone still on the fence on this is obviously immune to this negative pitch. She needs a positive pitch–think Bernie and student loans or anything like it. She needs a pitch, or set of pitches, with that kind of energizing positive effect.
So far, it isn’t there.
My fingers are crossed, but i worry.


But she HAS done these things. Her mental health plan was wonderful and it was hardly covered because trump didnt set himself on fire in Mexico.


Oh, he’s genuine all right. He’s a genuine bullshit artist.


Sorry, but mental health is not a barn-burner of an issue. She has to do better than just have good positions on things. She has to connect with, and excite the electorate. How to do this is for others to figure out i guess. If Warren and Sanders can do it with completely ‘un-triangulated,’ progressive positions why can’t she?


Nice shadow and cloud reference. :smile:

But you are also falling for it. If the media chooses to ignore Hillary’s speeches and campaign stops, and focus all of their attention on make believe pivots, that’s a difficult thing to combat. For example, how many minutes were dedicated to Hillary’s great speech on mental illness in this country? Zero…they were all hyperventilating over Trump in Mexico/Trump in Arizona.

She is travelling with the press corps now, so that should certainly help. I suspect also, now that we are post Labor Day, that she starts taking a much more aggressive stance in any number of ways. But that’s not guarantee that the media will cover her. Because its not shrouded in clouds and shadows.


your suggestion for point #1 would have the exact opposite effect. A twitter war between Warren and Trump is reported as “Trump says XXX about Warren”, they way it always has been. Obama will probably give us a few wonderful zingers in the upcoming weeks, but I expect to see his speeches more focused on Hillary’s positives (your point #2).

As for Bernie, well…color me less than enthused by his performance over the weekend. He freaking called for the Clinton Foundation to be shut down, and for people to hold her feet to the fire on everything. If that is idea of campaigning for Hillary…just go back to Vermont.


Once again, she IS doing these things and the mental health plan was simply an example that was ignored because Trump wasn’t a complete dumpster fire…which is the entire point- Clinton could do all the things you want, exactly how you want…with the “enthusiasm” you want and it would STILL be less than if Trump does something borderline normal.

And mental health might not be a “barn burner” but it is fucking important…and I, for one, and extremely happy and grateful for her plan.


Bernie did it by lying his ass off and tossing out unsubstantiated pixie dust solutions. And he still lost the Democratic primary by sizable margins. Hillary’s entire campaign is built upon a realistic agenda. Running around with half cocked plans that can’t be implemented and don’t add up is NOT going to help with her “trust” numbers.

Please don’t present the loser’s strategy as the way to go. Its just embarrassing for all involved.


Reince Priebus told us Trump would be even by Labor Day! :anguished:


While there is some cause for concern, don’t freak out over CNN’s poll just yet. The likely voter model they are using seems kinda suspect…they bumped up republicans by 10% from 2012 and kept Democrats the same, likewise dropping Independents way down.

There should be a slew of polls coming out this week, with this being the typical “campaign kick off” week. Let’s see where they all stand before we starting grasping for the smelling salts :smile: