TPM:
When likely voters are polled on their preferences, Trump leads Clinton by one point, 49-48, in a head-to-head matchup. When third party candidates are added to the question Trump leads Clinton by two points, 45-43, among likely voters, with Johnson at 7 points and Stein at 2 points.
Outlier, people. Donât panic. Not yet.
And yet it is maddening. For the horserace they want, the MSM is touting this poll wholesale this morning across the board. Theyâve mentioned nothing about the new NBC poll (even MSNBC ignored it and spent half and hour discussing the CNN poll. It was, however, Moaninâ JoeâŚadmittedly.), nothing about the electoral map, nothing about battleground statesâŚetc.
Its their change from RVs to the LV screen. Typically, that switch is favorable to republicans, though there was some evidence that it wouldnât be this year.
But, without knowing the details of how they made their screen, the poll is consistent with that switch in that it is also indicate a sizable enthusiasm gap among Dems. That is my biggest worry about this election cycle.
The other big concern I have here is there is a shift among favorable/unfavorable ratingsâŚmore people have a favorable rating of Trump, and more people have an unfavorable rating of Clinton.
That one just hurts my head, and I look squarely at the broader MSM for that one. No mention of the Bondi bribe story that twitter has been heating up over all weekend, and no mention of the fact that a trial against Trump for rape of a 13 year old starts in less than 2 weeks. This will be the third time he has been accused of rape/attempted rape in court and almost nobody is even aware of that.
Likewise, there as been zero coverage of him using foreign models illegally (largely under age as well), coaching them on how to lie to customs officials and federal immigration forms, while housing them in squalor and paying them next to nothing.
Bang him over the head with those three stories for a week or soâŚtoss in bribing the AG (now governor) in TX too, and hiring illegal immigrants from Poland and then stiffing them for a little extra spice. Then lets see where his favorables are.
@sherlock1 Well ,duh!!! The NBC is the epitome of what they DONâT want. Not only is she ahead, but it literally shows no change. The very definition of ânot newsâ is no change. Plus if you are going to screech about a non existent pivot for over a weekâŚyou want to see the ârewardsâ for your efforts. CNN/ORC poll shows that.
We have to consider the possibility that the Cinton campaign isnât operating as effectively as it might. It seems to me that the priorities are:
(1) Find a way to stop Trump dominating the news stories, day in, day out.
(2) Find a way to communicate a pithy, positive narrative about HRCâs agenda.
As to (1), this can be achieved by getting Elizabeth Warren and Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders more actively involved in attacking Trump, and consistently using language people will understand. âMentally unstable.â âChicken.â âMore loyal to Putin than to the American people.â âScared of Putin.â Do not shrink from using these actual phrases, phrases that will generate debate. Refer to the fake doctorâs report, to the failure to release tax returns etc. Stick to the message.
As to (2), I have no idea. I donât know. âTough.â âWorker.â âChampion of justice.â
well that starts happening today. And could we all please remember the final outcome of 2012 Obama at 51 percent Romney 47.
The US today is just too polarized to see a much wider margin between Republican and Democrat.
We can call this an outlier if we want, but the truth is by allowing Trump to win every news cycle Clinton is shrinking into the shadows surrounded by clouds and subject to every possible meaningless attack by the New York Times or the AP. Inquiring minds want to know, who is running her campaign? The same team that ran Martha Coakley or Robin Carnahanâs horrible Senate campaigns?
Hillary has to become the energizer bunny focused like a laser on her positive message. She canât rely on Trump falling apart, the media has shown it is going to do everything it can to prop him up.
Clinton does dominate the headlines and clickbait links for three things: her coughing jags and stroke symptoms, her smashed up Blackberries with State Department âsmoking gunâ Benghazi proof on them, and the âopticsâ of the Clinton Foundationâs possible. but unspecified. corruption.
My problem is I think the Clinton campaign decided to take time off to allow Trump to implode. It is impossible for Trump to implode. He has the active patronage of the mainstream media who will live feed every meaningless Trump townhall and will skip over his repeated examples of raw corruption.
The fact that the race is this close should not only be an embarrassment for Democrats, but should also indicate just how weak a candidate Clinton is. No one really cares for her. She cares only for herself and her career while pretending that she does things for the children. At least Trump isnât a phony. He puts his ego front and center for all to see.
Except all those people that voted for her and made her win by margins even President Obama didnât beat her by in the primaries
Clinton just has not put out an image, a vision, of what she IS and what we can be if she is President. Sheâs gotten all she will get out of what is wrong with Trumpâanyone still on the fence on this is obviously immune to this negative pitch. She needs a positive pitchâthink Bernie and student loans or anything like it. She needs a pitch, or set of pitches, with that kind of energizing positive effect.
So far, it isnât there.
My fingers are crossed, but i worry.
But she HAS done these things. Her mental health plan was wonderful and it was hardly covered because trump didnt set himself on fire in Mexico.
Oh, heâs genuine all right. Heâs a genuine bullshit artist.
Sorry, but mental health is not a barn-burner of an issue. She has to do better than just have good positions on things. She has to connect with, and excite the electorate. How to do this is for others to figure out i guess. If Warren and Sanders can do it with completely âun-triangulated,â progressive positions why canât she?
Nice shadow and cloud reference. 
But you are also falling for it. If the media chooses to ignore Hillaryâs speeches and campaign stops, and focus all of their attention on make believe pivots, thatâs a difficult thing to combat. For example, how many minutes were dedicated to Hillaryâs great speech on mental illness in this country? ZeroâŚthey were all hyperventilating over Trump in Mexico/Trump in Arizona.
She is travelling with the press corps now, so that should certainly help. I suspect also, now that we are post Labor Day, that she starts taking a much more aggressive stance in any number of ways. But thatâs not guarantee that the media will cover her. Because its not shrouded in clouds and shadows.
your suggestion for point #1 would have the exact opposite effect. A twitter war between Warren and Trump is reported as âTrump says XXX about Warrenâ, they way it always has been. Obama will probably give us a few wonderful zingers in the upcoming weeks, but I expect to see his speeches more focused on Hillaryâs positives (your point #2).
As for Bernie, wellâŚcolor me less than enthused by his performance over the weekend. He freaking called for the Clinton Foundation to be shut down, and for people to hold her feet to the fire on everything. If that is idea of campaigning for HillaryâŚjust go back to Vermont.
Once again, she IS doing these things and the mental health plan was simply an example that was ignored because Trump wasnât a complete dumpster fireâŚwhich is the entire point- Clinton could do all the things you want, exactly how you wantâŚwith the âenthusiasmâ you want and it would STILL be less than if Trump does something borderline normal.
And mental health might not be a âbarn burnerâ but it is fucking importantâŚand I, for one, and extremely happy and grateful for her plan.
Bernie did it by lying his ass off and tossing out unsubstantiated pixie dust solutions. And he still lost the Democratic primary by sizable margins. Hillaryâs entire campaign is built upon a realistic agenda. Running around with half cocked plans that canât be implemented and donât add up is NOT going to help with her âtrustâ numbers.
Please donât present the loserâs strategy as the way to go. Its just embarrassing for all involved.
Reince Priebus told us Trump would be even by Labor Day! 
While there is some cause for concern, donât freak out over CNNâs poll just yet. The likely voter model they are using seems kinda suspectâŚthey bumped up republicans by 10% from 2012 and kept Democrats the same, likewise dropping Independents way down.
There should be a slew of polls coming out this week, with this being the typical âcampaign kick offâ week. Letâs see where they all stand before we starting grasping for the smelling salts 