Really?
TPM is going to be reporting statistical noise now?
For the next ninety some days it will be hair on fire panic and/or Clinton manages to surge back into the lead; a lead that never moves more the 2 point in either direction.
Over at Political Wire the headline is Clinton now leads nationally by ten points (Fox poll) with the major poll analysts from Nate Silver to Sam Wang giving her a 70%-80% chance of winning.
Maybe Josh thinks our constituencies will think all is well and relax.
I am of a slightly different opinion. When Trump is at his most disgusting, there are some effects which are slightly incongruous for me. First, I am disgusted. However, I am also more hopeful that Trump’s menace can be contained when he does the most outrageous things.
My default position is that people do not stay in the same place over such a long campaign, that fluctuations can occur and, most importantly, GOP opposition to Trump is based on more than one thing.
IF GOP opposition to Trump is based on the truism that his mental illness disqualifies him, that’s one thing. However, a substantial element of GOP opposition to Trump is based on polling. If Independents and Swing people and Fence Sitters forget about Trump outrages AS A RESULT OF HIM NOT SAYING DAMNING THINGS, they might lurch back to supporting him more…resulting in a lessening of pressure on the GOP to renounce him.
As much as I am personally insulted by every outrageous and dangerous thing Trump says, those utterances are beneficial to us in keeping the attention of our distracted electorate on point, and polling against him.**
** I am well aware of the dangerous effects of Trumpism to national world security. This is truly the most satanic election I have been witness to, inside and outside the U.S.
FiveThirtyEight’s now-cast has chances of Clinton winning at:
Hillary Clinton
91.7%
Donald Trump
8.3%
Arizona going blue? Not sure about that one.
It’s tied (grey) and AZ is in play.
TPM, just stop it! You are embarrassing yourselves.
I’m so glad I signed up for Prime. It’s even more embarrassment than before!
That is an amazing shift. Hopefully it will hold.
If McCain loses his primary (a distinct possibility) it will help even more. Trump attacking Gold Star vets is not at all doing him any favors in AZ where a lot of vets have retired.
When is AZ primary?
August 30, 2016.
There are a lot of latino voters in America. I think it’s a model for what’s going to happen to Texas in the next 10-20 years. Growing minority populations, consistently marginalized, or outright alienated, by the GOP will suddenly break the temporary state and HoR fix of gerrymandering and flip consistently red states to blue.
ty.
Javier Becerra’s address at the DNC was noteworthy… Becerra went out of his way to emphasize his ethnicity, origins, history and pride in all three. He was saying,
“Vengan conmigo.”
It’s not one election. it’s 50. So these “national” polls aren’t very useful at predicting the real deal, which is the Electoral College.
McCain has to contend with a threat in the form of a Trump-“shipping” 47 year-old hausfrau/doctor who could conceivably oust him in the primary.
Note to everyone who recognizes that Trump would be a disastrous POTUS:
Don’t be complacent – VOTE!