Donât worry - the Clinton campaign has it all figured out: theyâre gonna put Mark Cuban in the front row at tonightâs debate!
/s
At the rate that Gary âI Swear I Donât Smoke Pot Anymore, Scoutâs Honorâ Johnson is making gaffes, and with people realizing that Stein is an anti-science kook, I think this election will revert pretty close to the mean in terms of Libertarian/Green support.
This poll is as predictable as the sunrise. The big debate needs to be hyped. What better way to hype it than a poll that shows the candidates tied. Made for the rubes poll by the snake oil salesmen at Bloomberg.
You mean the same Bloomberg business that has several daily hit pieces on Hillary on their web page?
I can see a dynamic which allows people to disregard stories about Trumpâs lying, and his business corruption, etc.
For about 18 months, the coverage of Trump has been remarkably âbalancedâ, in the bad sense of the word.
To a casual observer, it might seem that Trump is a strong businessman, an outstanding negotiator, and a straight talker who brings what America needs. Should the coverage from now until November sharply diverge, voters might see this as the press unfairly trying to take sidesâto game the election in Clintonâs favor. After all, Trump has been the same candidate, the same crook, the same liar all along. If the media begins covering him wrong, that IS a problem.
Not exactly happy to wake up to this news.
I keep seeing these polls using likely voters rather then registered voters. Why is that? A polling columnist over at Huff Post looking at early voting stated likely voters tend toward the GOP. Where as in General Elections more registered voters and Demâs vote. Just a question. I do agree how this ONE poll is being used today. I thought they were suppose to be averaged out. What happened to that process?
This is one poll. Itâs not the poll to end all polls. Other polls were out this weekend showing Hillary with a slight lead nationally.
Central at some point you have to blame the candidateâs campaign. If Hillary loses I will be back on here with a comment on that. There is no invisible hand out there putting Trump this close to the Presidency. Itâs our freaking neighbors and a large percentage of the public at large voting that is doing this. A coworker put it best: âPeople want to vote for change but voting for change is no guarantee things will be betterâ They are playing a game of chicken thinking fck it. I know things will become alot worse if Trump wins. I have tried to prepare for it. All Summer I saved money and cleaned up my finances. Sometime people have to experience it instead of heeding warnings.
This election is looking more and more like 2000. Maybe DEMâs can pull this one out. I have given up trying to explain to people why Trump sucks. If you cannot figure out by now that Trump is a huge danger as President. Either you are just racist buying into Trumps BS, you are ignorant or you are just a dumbazz. People donât learn. 18 year olds today who can vote were 2 years old when Nader cost Gore the election. So really I am taking a gallows humor over this election now.
If a majority of voters want to vote Trump in as President. FINE Freaking do it!!! Go cut your nose off to spite your face. Go ahead and cause alot of misery and angst to millions. Not only in the USA but around the world. Freaking dumbazzesâŚ
The NYT did an interesting experiment this cycle, where they gave the same raw polling data to three polling firms and got (surprise) three entirely different answers as a result. One had Hillary winning, one had Trump winning and one had a tie.
Thatâs will all working from precisely the same data, merely running it through their various models.
Iâve seen similar shifts happen when 3 different LV screens are appliedâŚâDid the caller vote in last election?â âDid the caller say they intend to vote this election?â âDid the caller say they were very likely to vote in this election?â And there are even more, including combinations of the above, being used by various outlets which of course, given very different numbers.
But, generally speaking, LV screens will favor republicans because of the âenthusiasm gapâ. Its been the way for decades now. Absentee voting also tends to favor republicans (though that can vary quite a bit on a state by state basis).
I looked at alot of recent polling and most of it was likely voters. I am not questioning the polling. I want to know why they are not publishing registered voters.
Why does the headline say âtiedâ when Clinton is behind 2 points? ConfusedâŚ
Because when you go through the script for a poll, and a person indicates an answer that flags them as ânot likelyâ the script ends and no more data is captured for them.
Nearly every major polling house starts moving to a likely voter screen following Labor Day. By now, they have pretty much completed that moveâŚwhatever their âhouseâ likely voter screen may be.
#âPollsâŚpolls everywhere.â
Remember: We get what we vote for! VOTE!
Iâm 40 and read a lot, but itâs scary that as a South African I know about and clearly remember the GWB/Gore/Nader mess in 2000, and Americans a fair bit older than 18 have forgotten it. Or worse, they discount that mess completely. These are people who go âHuh?â when I talk about the Spoiler Effect (Naderâs supporters spoiled that election for the Dems and landed the whole f*cking world with GWB for 8 years). Then again, theyâre also the idjits who argue about the validity of the Horseshoe Principle (regarding fanaticism, the Far Left always closely resembles the Far Right).
Stupid is as stupid does, and maybe The Stupid⢠is gonna win out this time. I really hope not. I never thought Iâd say this, but Iâd gladly vote Jacob Zuma in for a third term rather than see DJT in the WH.
Am hoping so damn hard that Dems get out there and fix that potential disasterâŚ
Which is a big part of the problem this cycle. While the ones named in your cartoon are largely considered the âbetterâ polling houses, tremendous noise has been created by both an enormous spike in new and/or completely unknown polling outlets as well as a jump in ânewâ polling methodologies that have little to no track record.
And far too many media outlets treat them all precisely the same.
Most polls before Labor Day use the Registered Voter model.
Most polls after Labor Day use the Likely Voter model.
Robbie Mook is a genius! What a move! Trump camp unraveling!
Pearl clutching to begin around noon, after the girls have done all the necessary reassuring, posting, and processing. So ⌠what will she be wearing, the Armani jacket or the off the rack Target separates? I hope she doesnât wear too much makeup. Not a good look.
I am sure your closest Hillary campaign office would love to have you lending a hand in fixing that potential disaster. Give them a call. 