Discussion for article #244936
Good to hear. Sanders has so few specifics in his plans whereas Clinton’s proposals display deep knowledge and clear ideas about how to fix problems.
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Corrected.
Except Iowa actually votes first…
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No, the IA caucus is Feb. 2. NH votes Feb. 9. Then on the 20th NV and SC vote. I think HRC will win IA, lose NH by a margin in the single digits, and then slay in NV and SC, and effectively put it to bed on Super Tuesday.
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Don’t know what the last one said, but the only poll worth looking at in Iowa is the Des Moines Register poll because DMR appears to be the only poll whose pollsters know that Iowa is a caucus state.
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CA: Clinton +14
NY: Clinton +40
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Hillary is working (apparently under the radar) in securing Delagates. There are a number of states to come in which she may have a much better outing.
But to say this would reduce the handwringing among Hillary supporters and (most importantly) reduce the craving of her associates to issue ridiculous campaign ploys. I have always looked at Sanders as a gift.
To educating the electorate
To introducing passion to the Democratic side not seen since 2008
To tether Hillary more to the Left than she would have been
It hasn’t worked out that way, maximally.
SOME people (determined to Nader-esque-like snatch defeat from the Jaws of Victory) are diligently working on the premise that in order to root for either Democratic candidate for the nomination, it is necessary to despise the other (of course, leading to a Solemn Pledge to boycott the General if one’s particular Democratic favourite is not the Nominee).
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This.
Sans a meaningful Black vote it Iowa it should be Sanders for the taking. The fact that it isn’t clinches the nomination for Clinton. Sure, he likely wins NH but that is it. He has to take IA and if he doesn’t it is the beginning of the end,
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Individual polls don’t provide much information, only headlines. This is especially true for Presidential primaries. Here is Nate Silver’s most recent prediction for Iowa for anyone who want actual information: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/
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I’m a Clinton supporter, but I’d be happy to vote for Bernie in the general. I’m not sure he’d win, but that doesn’t affect who I’m voting for next November.
I wish the Clinton and Sanders campaigns would sign a mutual non-aggression pact, but that ain’t happening, unfortunately.
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Or put a bit more honestly, Sanders still gaining in Iowa.
Nevada is now in play and grassroots support for him continues to surge on Reddit.
Of the two cats I often watch, Chris Hayes and Lawrence O’Donnell, it seems as though Chris milks the “HorseRace” bullshit a tad more than Lawrence (probably has more to do with their respective ages).
I remember the old Rocky III film in which Hulk Hogan nearly dismembered Rocky, and then afterward posed for a Polaroid with The Rock.
Rocky: “Why’d you act so crazy out there?”
Hulk: “Just part of the Game.”
Well, HorseRace, Inc, IS part of the social structure Chris and Lawrence are in…but my problem has more to do with youthful minds and their ability (or inability) to have the philosophy of Hulk just this once.
I like both Lawrence and Chris, and watch All In often, but he’s clearly on Team Bernie, and doesn’t hide it particularly well. He obviously likes Bernie’s politics better, and he likes the drama from a news perspective better. He will play devil’s advocate, but not nearly as often or as forcefully to the Sanders supporters as he does to the Clinton supporters.
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HRC, the inventor of triangulation, remains unknowable. How much will be left of any plan is totally unpredictable. It depends on her reading of political winds, her assessment of her image, her plan for her legacy. Both Clintons value political victory as an end in itself, more than they value the content of the victory. One year worth of child nutrition in exchange for permanent tax cuts for the top 1.5% will be what you can expect, and it will be sold as a great victory. She will feel the need to prove she is just as tough and conservative as her antagonists. I will vote for her only if I have to, and only because her potential appointments to the supreme court might, and only might, be less destructive than the what the Repubs will drag in.
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The latest DMR poll has her with a 2 point lead…basically a dead heat.
My guess is, she probably does have the lead, but Sanders is surging in Iowa. It will probably come down to organization and turn out.
However, there have been a lot of reports lately that are indicating that Sanders support is very strong in just a few places…namely college towns. And Hillary’s support is more state wide. That could be a problem for Sanders. Winning a couple of precincts really big doesn’t translate into winning the state.
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I could quarrel with your take in greater detail, but as a Hillary supporter who’ll wholeheartedly vote for Bernie if he’s our nominee, I’ll just say there’s less than no reason for you to qualify your expectation of her Court appointments. Even if you think she’s just a Wall Street shill (and I don’t), surely you don’t think she’s just GOP-lite on abortion, voting rights, gay rights, the environment… And remember that it was Bill (whose staffers always hated Hillary for her constant efforts to pull him left, btw) who gave us our greatest sitting justice, Ruth Bader Ginsburg – and her liberal/progressive bona fides were really clear at the time. So if it’s Hillary in the general, keep the SCOTUS at the top of your mind, and share that thought with everyone you know.
Even before W I always said I’m a one-issue voter, and my issue is the Court – because it has an impact on every issue. Come November, we’ll need every possible Dem voter to recognize that reality.
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For the record, it looks like the last Monmouth poll of Iowa, in early December, showed Hillary ahead by 22 points. So assuming their polling is accurate at all (and leaving aside the question of whether their likely voter model may be, or may not be, underestimating Bernie’s chances) it still shows what most of the polls are showing – that Bernie’s campaign has gained serious ground since December.
At any rate, I agree about the DMR poll likely being the most accurate, and that it looks like it’s coming down to a neck-and-neck race where turnout will be essential. And if it’s really close, it may end up being Martin O’Malley’s voters who tip the balance in some precincts (because of the way the caucuses work, where any candidate with less than 15% support is eliminated and then that candidate’s supporters get to choose their second choice).
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