Interestingly Johnson is pulling more from Trump than Stein is pulling from Clinton.
That’s a really important observation.
Just when I thought that things couldn’t possibly get any better, THEY JUST DID!
GO HILLARY!
GO TIM!
GO TEAM BLUE!
Stein’s numbers are inflated at 2%, I suspect. The Greens only got 2.7% in 2000 with Nader. She doesn’t have Nader’s name recognition. Taking a closer look at her “policies” isn’t helpful (to her). Stein will probably get no more than 1% on November 8th.
Slightly OT, but about polls in general.
Moral of story, Sam Wang rules!
A significant lead…although she is still below 50%…will be interesting to see if any remaining greens or undecideds break her way.
Of course, according to some in the MSM, it is only a slight, temporary bump due mainly to the Democratic convention - you know, that Democratic convention that was held about TWO FUCKING WEEKS AGO.
I suspect Johnson is pulling from Clinton too. I know of at least four former Bernie supporters who are now Johnson supporters. They’re all men, by the way, and I suspect their support of Johnson is partly because he’s got a, well, Johnson.
I would expect Clinton to be the first Democrat since Johnson to win more than 400 EC votes this year.
After the Democratic convention and Trump’s attacks on the Kahns, @daveyjones and I were saying that we thought this week is when we’d really start to see Clinton’s bounce. I think we’ll continue to see her tick up little by little as people realize just how insanely dangerous Trump really is. If there’s a debate, and that’s a big IF, I suspect she’ll get another bounce. But I still think there are quite a few Bernie or Busters out there withholding their support or supporting other candidates who’ll eventually come home. As Trump continues to be scarily ignorant, hateful, bigoted, and dangerous, the Bernie or Bust thing will become far, far less socially acceptable. I’d also wager that undecideds will break heavily in her favor.
That’s reassuring. The part of me that panics periodically about this election was worried that Stein would pull a large enough percentage of “not Hillary” voters to make a difference.
So usual caveats about not being complacent, but the 538 now-cast now has Hillary having a 50.4% chance of winning South Carolina and the polls-only forecast has her having a greater than 50% chance in both Arizona and Georgia.
Is this a respected poll? I didn’t think so.
At this point, are any of them very respected?
FWIW, I believe the more respected polls do show similar results.
“When it comes to voters’ impressions of their temperament, the Democratic nominee has a clear advantage. Only 27 percent of voters said that the real estate mogul had the right temperament to sit in the Oval Office, a five-point drop from July. Clinton received a significant boost, on the other hand, with 61 percent of voters saying she was suited to serve as president, compared to 52 percent in July.”
I think the campaign is shaping up to be one in which temperament, i.e. mental stability is the issue that will lead to a Hillary landslide. If just 27% of voters think Trump has the temperament to be president, but 34% say they will vote for him, I bet this means if the election was today he’d wind up with between 27 and 34% of the popular vote, though of course events in the next two months could raise his ceiling from 34. A ceiling in the 30s for Trump with below 5% for third parties as has been the case historically translates to a Hillary % in the upper 50s.
(Edit) A popular vote margin of this magnitude could turn Utah, MT, SD and even TX, SC and Indiana blue besides the more obvious Georgia, MO,and AZ.
The only poll to be respected is the one that supports what you already want to believe.
The author missed I think a few key things. First, this is the first “post-post-convention” polls out. It was taken 8/4-7. Monmouth is a quality outfit (one of the few A+ ratings on 538). This is a later period than all other recent telephone poles which closed on 8/4 or 8/3. So this is the first snap shot after what everyone said was a bad week for Trump has begun to Jell.
The last poll Monmouth did was before both conventions (taken 7/14-16) which showed the race as 45% C – 43% Trump (+2 Clinton). Other polls at the same time were better for Clinton, e.g. CNN/ORD +5 Clinton, ABC/Post +4 Clinton, NBC/WSJ +6 Clinton, and I see no indication that Monmouth has had a lean toward Clinton.
So the “registered voter” results were Clinton 46%, Trump 34%, Johnson 7%, and Stein 2% (+12% Clinton).
When they added a likely voters screen, it was 50% Clinton, 37% Trump, 7% Johnson, and 2% Stein (+13% Clinton). That is noteworthy as likely voter results are almost always more favorable to the Republicans. It suggests to me that Trump is going to hurt republican turn out.
As with prior polls the attributes of each candidate suggest that Trump will not pick up much more support. 26% viewed him favorably (down 5% from their last poll) and 61% viewed him unfavorably (up 8%).
Clinton’s numbers are not great, 37% favorable and 49% unfavorable, but she is at 50%, and Trump has to gain support from people who don’t view him favorably, not keep it. [I would really like to see a comparison “who do you view more favorably” question as that is the key measure]
Only 27% said Trump has the “right temperament” to be president (down from 32%) and a whopping 67% said he lacks the right temperament. OTOH 61% say Clinton has the right temperament (up from 52% in July).
And to the extent that republicans want to keep beating the e-mail story, only 27% of people believe Clinton has been “honest” about her e-mail, 64% think she has not, but (a question I have not seen in prior polls) 63% of voters are “tired of hearing about it and don’t think the media should continue to cover it”
Bottom line, I don’t think the e-mail issue is going to drive a single vote at this point, it is already baked in. And P.S. I remained pissed as hell about how the Media has constructed and pushed a false narrative re he e-mails. I’ve never seen anything like it. It is like the media feels they need to hit Clinton on something to appear “balanced” and this is issue they jumped on when Benghazi was shown to be a total made up fraud being pushed with absolutely no evidence.
The survey is weighted 26% R, 35% D, and 39% I, which seems about right to me because there has been a notable trend of identification as a R going down the last few months as those embarrassed by Trump say they are “independent.”
very bad for trump as it shows the trend going away from him, and only the convention “bump” not receding, but Clinton’s lead increasing.
I think you will see a split in her support as we get closer to November. There are probably 2% who are inclined to vote for her, but my guess is that probably only .5% actually believe that Hillary and Trump are both bad, or are anarchists for believe a vote for Stein, giving Trump the white house will help being about a revolution.
She will get more votes in a place like CA where “progressives” who agree with her odd position can safely voter for her, knowing Trump has no shot (and might approach 2%), but in states that are actually in swing, I think she will not get more than the .5% core crazy support. She will end up nationwide at just under 1%.
This will be a historic election for HRC for two reasons.
- It has to be the earliest an electoral landslide of this magnitude was ever detected.
- It will be one of the largest landslides in history.