Discussion: Clinton Surges Ahead In Post-Convention Poll From CBS News

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Trump: I am not too worried. Putin has promised to have a periodic release of Crooked HIllary’s emails. I will then be perpetually ahead.


It’s hard to believe that it isn’t more like 20 points. I don’t understand how anyone can support Trump.


I suspect it’s still a few days too early for the Khan affair to show its effect on the poll results.


Six points after attacking the family of a slain US soldier who died in action. Pathetic!


Polls show that over 40% of Americans are happy with the idea of a authoritarian personality being President. Trump is such a personality. If Trump was attentive enough to have a thought out political philosophy it would most likely be fascism. But since he doesn’t I am not sure what to call “Trumpism” except maybe stupid fascism.


While we should not be complacent, this gives me some hope.


From the WaPo discussion:



The polling suggests to me that the respective popularity of Clinton and Trump are strongly related to their pure prominence. Their personal/political merits are beyond the grasp of 30% of the electorate.

It follows that Clinton has to find a strong narrative, a strong story, to attract positive attention to herself. Tim Kaine–who has disappeared, unfortunately, as one might have expected–must step up his game and find a way to make his presence felt. Even Pence looms much larger than Kaine. I would suggest that he take it upon himself, in his genial and sane way, to take on the elephant in the room: that Trump is a would-be dictator with no boundaries, that he is in cahoots with the Russians at the expense of the American national interest, that “America Last” should be Trump’s motto. This a huge, essential issue, and it will get the attention of the American people.


How about 538’s prediction if the election were held today:

Looks a little better, eh?

ETA: Please note: At 538, there are three prediction scenarios to choose from at the upper left-hand side of the linked page. Choose the prediction that better suits your personality and mood!


I would not be surprised to see Hillary up over 50% in the aggregate polling before this thing smooths out again. The DNC was really good this year and the primetime speeches a stark contrast to Trumpism. In the end though, conventions mean very little and we’ll see a close match in the polls by month’s end. Assange will release another turdburger email dump and the media will become breathless about every little slight and double meaning inside while giving Trump a free pass to be the world’s biggest asshole without consequence. Rinse and repeat a couple more times before November.


Much better – but I didn’t realize there are that many idiots in New Hampshire. Jeez.


Lookin’ good at Chez Wang also.


TY, nice graphic here:

Drumpf is near the low end on “bumps” and HRC on the high end during the 1996-2012 years.


Living in NH myself, I’m less surprised…

It is a concern though as we have an important senate race as well that must be won.

Also the Governor race is contested as well. Dems have held it through the ups and downs including 2010 anf 2014 (terms are 2 years) so repubs see an opportunity with the current governor running for senate.


Right now he doesn’t look to win much more than the Fox News demographic and Trump is doing his best to drive people scared of him to the polls. Whether they like Hillary or not, she does come across as competent and predictable.

Despite the best efforts of the Cable Networks to keep the race alive by postulating rust belt theories, there just aren’t enough uneducated angry old white men in the America and Trump has to win all of them.


That is not what 538 is posting today. they have it much closer, 53-47.

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You cannot fix stupid or it appears infantile Bernie or Bust folks.


Can I just say how funny I find it that a jewish guy with an Eastern European background, doing an imitation of Fernando Lamas, an Argentine, is doing ads for a Mexican beer? God, the world is so interconnected.