Discussion for article #245410
This is SOOOOOOOO CLOSE. 50-50 and too close to call, 90% out - only 10% 140 precincts have not been counted and HRC seems to be favored in those precincts, Very close
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It’s actually not close at all. Less than 100 days ago Sanders was down by about 35 points. His campaign takes in ZERO corporate donations, and has so far tallied more individual contributions than any campaign in US history, beating out even Obama. Sanders has done all of this against a press blackout that leaves him with an 80-1 disadvantage against Trump, and a 50-1 disadvantage against Clinton. But sure, whatever, it’s a dead heat draw in Iowa. Bffft.
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Well he can be winning all the way until he drops out then.
Sec. Clinton has a very low bar to clear – don’t come in third or lose South Carolina.
I hear you. I am tired of people telling me he can’t, (or shouldn’t,) win. Maybe, maybe he really should win.
According to Nate at 538, Saunders needed to get twice as many delegates to actually “win.” Whatev, Nate.
I don’t think I can trust any kind of media. just count the chads, er, votes, k?
=)
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They were using a microsoft app.
You answered your own question.
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Let’s all be our best selves tonight folks!
[Standard Disclaimer: This commenter wishes it to be known that in November he or she plans to vote for the Democratic nominee, whoever that turns out to be, and will encourage their fellow primary candidate supporters to do likewise.]
*image courtesy commenter “jw1”
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Yeah, I’m really surprised. I thought Clinton would win substantially more delegates than Sanders out of this.
This basically feels like a tie to me regardless of who ends up with the most “delegate equivalents” unless pretty much everything goes HRC’s way over the next coupla hours and she separates by a percentage or two.
ETA: and just as I post, the separation is widening so maybe will feel less like a tie soon.
even if sanders ends up losing, he still prevails because of his starting point. and the fact that the voting has been so close is going to be the storyline. but if sanders wins, it’s going to be devastating for clinton. the machine, the years as presumptive nominee once again called into question. gonna be a long night.
ugh… cruz the winner. otoh, he’s so despised, i can’t seeing him repeating this, since the ia gop caucus voter is heavily evangelical.
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If this doesn’t force the Democratic elite to take notice of the wants and needs of the country nothing short of tar and feathers will.
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Actually while not as granular as here at TPM–
are showing the results some minutes faster than TPM-- here:
https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state
jw1
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“countered 55-year-old Su Podraza-Nagle, 55,”
I make mistakes all of the time, but don’t let AP style be the enemy.
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OK, love that HRC just stomped on Cruz’s speech. Don’t know if any other network other than MSNBC segued immediately.
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TYTY!
http://gunsarevictimstoo.com/images/(D)FTW!.png
It’s been a splendid night for Democratic voters. All of us.
I’m thrilled with the results (no matter the eventual, final tally).
This bodes well-- as do the ® results.
Clinton/Sanders dead heat.
Trump loses.
Cruz wins.
The trifecta as it were.
jw1
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With it basically a tie, I think both sides can take something positive out of the contest-- and will. Although I may be nieve about this, I don’t think it very much changes the outcomes in the upcoming states. My guess is that Bernie will win by a somewhat smaller margin in NH, although he will likely win it handily. And Hillary will closely win Nevada, and will win South Carolina by a somewhat smaller margin than current projections. I think as the primaries unfold and there are more debates - now with much bigger audiences - Bernie’s policy positions are vulnerable in the larger Democratic membership, while Hillary is vulnerable because… well, she’s Hillary.
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Why doesn’t TPM report the total number of Democratic caucusers to put this close “horse race” into perspective. Politico shows much fewer than 1100 caucusers showed up from the entire state! Hillary had 8 more supporters than Bernie! Yet these results will be spun by both campaigns, their respective supporters (like us) and the media as something meaningful. I wonder how much money Democrats spent to entice about 2% of their Iowa voters to GOTV?
The Iowa caucus system is worth less for American politics than John Nance Garner’s proverbial bucket of warm spit. I doubt that the entirety of the Democratic turnout could even fill a bucket with spit!
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Those numbers are “delegate equivalents”. For example, a single caucus site might have had 400 people show up and decided 6 delegate equivalents.
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… read up a little before you post.
Not a Clinton supporter, but that was a good speech to give since everything is so close. Better to get on TV sooner than wait til 2 in the morning to fully declare victory. Sanders should get up and do something similar soon.
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