Discussion: Clinton Path To Victory Focused On Perennial Battleground States

Hopefully that fits with the increases in white supporters for Hillary in the recent polls, though I suspect many are going to go for Johnson or are still up in the air.

I’m beginning to think that he’s just ā€œplaying atā€ running for President. I don’t sense any seriousness about him. He’s obviously putting in the hours, so he’s getting something out of it (attention).

But he’s acting as if this is a reality show, and he’s been told the outcome is sure, and that he’s scheduled to win.

I’m thinking possible senility.

1 Like

Come to Sunny Arizona, Hillary. We’d love to see ya. Actually as I types these words we’re having a thunderstorm… I got an email from the trump campaign inviting me to a Mike Pence rally up in Phoenix 120 miles north of where I live. I replied and told 'em what they could do with the invite.
But seriously az is evenly divided this time. A visit from Hillary could just turn the tide…

11 Likes

Look up Narcissistic Personality Disorder. You will see a spot on description of trump.

1 Like

Good Lord, what a thought. Good thing we’re electing probably the greatest policy wonk to ever hold the office.

4 Likes

Those would be Federal Districts, which comprise numerous autonomous republics or other sorts of republics. All that would really matter here would be the Central Federal District, which embraces Moscow.

2 Likes

So: Clinton’s campaign is bypassing Arizona and Missouri, where Democratic Senate candidates are behind but quite close, and could use a boost from the national level. And then there are Indiana and Illinois, where the Democratic candidates are ahead, but with nothing exactly sewn up.

Meanwhile, she is going to Colorado (generally acknowledged to be in the bag already), Virginia (also pretty much in the bag), Michigan (which Obama won in 2012 by 54% to 45%), and Iowa (which he won by 6%).

It makes one wonder. But I guess Kirkpatrick and Kander will just have to go it alone.

3 Likes

maximus–a wonderful post. Many thanks!

2 Likes

She will hit those states in October, just as Obama did in 2008. The first task in the post-convention period is to lock down as many battlegrounds as possible before expanding the map. The Clinton team is well on its way to achieving that in CO, VA, PA, MI, WI and NH. They are ahead of Obama’s pace in that respect. They are also ahead of Obama’s pace in FL and NC. We need to secure a path to 270 that does not involve FL and OH. That’s what Obama’s plan was in 2008 and 2012 and he succeeded. All that said, there are a lot of weeks between now and the end of September and schedules are always subject to change. It would be very easy for Hillary to hit KC or STL on her way to Denver from Des Moines, and just as easy to get a stop in Atlanta and Savannah in between hitting Charlotte and Tampa.

12 Likes

It should be noted that the Southwest and Northwest do not include Pittsburgh (Allegheny County) and therefore represent a smaller slice of PA’s population compared to the 4 regions where Clinton is leading. PA is just about a done deal at this point, though she will visit there many times between now and the end of September.

4 Likes

I think you forget Slovenia ? They would love to see Melanoma as FLOTUS…

2 Likes

Hey Pat! PA in the house here! Better yet, Philly (and burbs) in the house. That place you know where 35% of the state’s votes are held. How much you want to bet you don’t carry SE Penna? As Philly goes, so goes the state. Hillary will still get her fair share of PA. And you do know most folks vote STRAIGHT party tickets?

Nice try Pat. But seriously, you don’t think this lukewarm stand re Trump is going to help do you? The man is as toxic as Centralia, PA.

I for one can’t wait for the network call of your defeat. Bye boy!

1 Like

I saw Kornacki’s presentation the other night. He certainly nailed it. That’s one of the reasons I was never worried about PA. The GOTV is always strong in POTUS elections.

1 Like

Credit where credit is due: At least they didn’t say ā€œCenters Aroundā€, which I would expect TPM’s headline writers to be fully capable of. On the other hand, it might just boil down to the fact that ā€œCenters Onā€ is more economical of space.

2 Likes

If a changing world means manufacturing jobs for high-school grads leave the U.S. and go to Mexico and Brazil and China, those guys aren’t going to ā€œembrace changeā€ and I don’t blame them. And if one candidate loudly brays he’s going to fix it for you, if he even sounds kind of like one of you, you might just lean in his direction. And if the other candidate pretty much embodies the change in the postwar world, and respects everyone’s intelligence enough not to claim she can bring those jobs right back, well, that’s going to be a tough demographic to win over. Hillary’s got some good real-world proposals but if you’ve been struggling for years and finding less security in life, it’d be hard to trust either party all that much right now. That’s how it looks to me when I try to empathize.

9 Likes

Must be working

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-after-conventions-clinton-leads-trump-by-8-points/2016/08/06/517999c0-5b33-11e6-9aee-8075993d73a2_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_poll-1220am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

7 Likes

The ā€œpoorly educatedā€ continue to Drumpf but educated whites aren’t so enthused. The Khan debacle has damaged him considerably as well.

But ABC/WP shows @HillaryClinton +6 w/college-plus whites; NBC/WSJ was +7. No D nominee has won them in exits and NES polling since 52

— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) August 7, 2016
8 Likes

Trump is now up against bikini clad vollyball beach beauties at the Olympics. This vollyball contest is gonna be going on for the next 2 weeks and the base (25-40 yr old white males) are gonna be seriously distracted. Can he tunnel thru to his base who are glued to their TV screens?
I’m sure there’s more than one sport at the Olympics but NBC concentrates on this one sport.

7 Likes

hag faw down, go BOOM!

2 Likes

A challenge to Drumpf’s need for 100% attention! He will rise to the challenge.

8 Likes