My personal poll of relatives gives her 12 up —
It would be nice if stories like that mean that Clinton supporters will get motivated to go out and vote, but two points? No.
Fivethirtyeight.com averaged 20 polls and found that Hillary leads Sanders in California 55.4% to 42.7. That would seem to indicate that California voter support for Sanders hasn’t improved much at all since he started campaigning there.
In addition, Fivethirtyeight predicts a clear win for Clinton: “According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has a 94% chance of winning the California primary.”
– http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/california-democratic/
My guess 53-47 Clinton…
I’m also skeptical of this, but I’m still going to phone bank for Clinton this weekend!
Not the best source; better is HuffPost’s Pollster, which shows Clinton currently up +7.6% (including that new poll), 49.9% - 42.3%. Pollster does not do just a simple averaging, but uses a sophisticated algorithm to weight polls based on things like date, survey size, pollster reliability history, and so on.
Ah, nothing like media generated narratives…
A Public Policy Institute of California survey released last week also showed Clinton leading Sanders by two points.
Maybe also mention the ABC/SurveyUSA polls from last week that showed Clinton up +18? Or the Hoover/Golden State poll from the week before that showed Clinton up +13? Not saying either of those is necessarily more or less accurate than PPIC’s but it’s shit journalism to cherry pick polls like that for a specific narrative.
It was reported earlier how the vote by mail, which is about 50% of our vote in CA, was coming in at 58% for Clinton. So we shall see how close this poll actually is. Suppose to be a Field Poll out tomorrow.
How is it known that mail in vote was 58% for Clinton? Some kind of poll of mail-in voters? A mail in “exit poll”?
Just wondering: has the great white Vermont truthteller said anything yet about Trump U.? Or does that interfere with his tacit narrative that Hillary is as bad as Trump?
If only Sanders campaigned this hard in the southern states, this would be a different primary…But he didn’t even try.
What is the url for that “Benchmark” poll aggregator or whatever it is?
That is a really good question.
That is a really good answer. 
I was thinking more along the lines of
Great Darwin’s ghost, I wish this primary was over. Interestingly, on 538, the polls with larger (800+) numbers of respondents appear to consistently give Hillary a larger edge. Also, it occurred to me that a pollster gets way more publicity if they err on the side of the underdog, in this case Sanders (accuracy and precision, notwithstanding). Why bother being accurate and precise, then, when you don’t get noticed. Not CT, just an hypothesis that could be tested.
Edit: In othewords, H0 is: established narratives, mass media coverage and political climates do not effect pollsters and polling, in particular how polling methodologies are created and implemented and how polling results are interpreted.
I noticed too that the larger the sample,the bigger the margin for HRC.
Captain Obvious to the rescue!
Pretty sure that those ballots received-- have been tabulated and made public.
jw1
Wow! Never imagined that. I would have thought such a thing could potentially bias both turnout and voter preference (bandwagon effect) on actual election day. Scratches head and increases size of bald spot
When citing polls, a point spread that falls well within the margin of error is generally reported as a statistical tie, not a “lead.” Statistics 101.