Discussion for article #245222
You know if things keep tightening up like this I wonder what, if any, impact this winter storm they are talking about going through the area either Monday or Tuesday of next week could have on the Iowa Caucuses.
From the polling in general, it looks like Bernie really gained for a few weeks but has leveled out lately (per 538), so the race may more or less have stabilized there. I have wondered whether a storm would stymie older, more rural voters and hurt Hillary, or (less likely, I suspect) keep young first-timers from bothering. Close race; I assume everyone’s motivated to get out…
2 Likes
The other way of looking at this is that the polling has begun to stabilize right ahead of the caucuses, with Clinton settling in slightly ahead of Sanders. His momentum seems to have peaked a week or two ago.
1 Like
Seems about right. I notice that new registration is sluggish, which is probably not so great for Bernie.
1 Like
It went up in new 538 projection:
Very interesting page. I see that they disclose the weight they give to each individual poll. I thought that was their ‘secret sauce.’
I think you are right – while this article about this Monmouth poll shows a big change in Bernie’s direction compared to their December poll, the NBC/WSJ poll shows the same results as they did a couple of weeks ago (Clinton +3). Looks like it’s pretty much neck-and-neck in terms of the polls. I agree with those saying an apparent tie would likely to lead to a Clinton victory, given the geographic over-concentration of Bernie’s voters in a smaller number of precincts, and Hillary’s more evenly-distributed support which should serve her better in the delegate count. Plus, her voters being more experienced and reliable than his.
I don’t know how the weather, if it’s bad, might play out. Part of Bernie’s strategy is to get his supporters who are in-state students to go home and caucus in their home precincts, rather than in the college towns. Which is already a pretty heavy lift, and bad weather could make it even heavier. On the other hand, I see what you mean about bad weather potentially being more of an impediment to older and more rural voters, more of whom tend to support Hillary. So I really don’t know which effect might be larger…or whether they might mostly cancel out.
Bottom line – it’s going to be close, and anyone who tells you they’re 100% sure what the outcome will be is either lying, or seriously overestimating their analytical skills.
2 Likes
Shaping up to be an interesting race, likely to spark a lively conversation about the future of progressive Americans. I want the nominee to be the person who can mostly roundly whip the GOP’s ass and we won’t know that until all the Democratic candidates have been thoroughly vetted by the public.