Discussion: Clinton Leads By Five-Point Margin In Final Tracking Poll Update

“This poll is purposefully wrong. Rigged.”
— Donald J. Trump


I don’t believe Ganja Gary will get 6%—more like 3%


TPM is off to a slow start today. Need more commenting chum for the regulars :wink:


I know it’s almost all noise at this point, but I like the way the trend lines are going.

I’ll wait for the election results…

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Even 538 is showing a bump, trending in Clinton’s direction. The Senate is scary though.

I’m reading the posts from Pantsuit Nation. It gives me something to calm anxiety while I am waiting. It is good to think about the people in this country who are not hypnotized by the right wing nut jobs. Here is the link if you want to take a look.

Comey’s “never mind” announcement came late in the day on Nov 6, so it will not factor in these polls. I’d say the “Clinton cleared” meme might boost these numbers by a couple of points.

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“You’re fired.”

– The Voters

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Imagine if these gun-forward Trumpers switched from playing ground-game defense to ground-game offense. Going door-to-door with weapons drawn reminding people to get to the polls–even offering rides, perhaps. I reckon that’s GOP ground game of the future.


The Democrats’ relief that they won the presidential election
(well, later today) may, unfortunately minimize acknowledgment of the damage
Comey did with his injection of himself into the election 11 days ago.

The Dems may eke out a narrow Senate lead today (or not)
but the U.S. would’ve had a decidedly clearly Democratic Senate (56-44 or so)
if not for Comey. This is not an insignificant or “harmless” intrusion,
just because Hillary Clinton survived it to win the presidency…


I don’t want to rely upon these unicorn & kittens predictions–but I can admit that I have some similar thoughts.

I mean–what if Hispanic turnout jumps from 47% to 63% (i.e. they turnout as much as African Americans do…)–then AZ flips, NC isn’t close and GA becomes a battleground for Trump.

And that isn’t even counting how women are going to react–esp. college educated women.

The polls seem to be predicated on established voting rates that are likely to get totally upended this time… so it will be interesting to see.

My safe bet is 323 to 215.
I think that something in the 350’s is entirely possible for Clinton though…


My fellow Earthlings, I am Prognos: Man From the Future. I’ve just returned from Nov 9 and with certainty tell you that the United States has elected its first female president. There is, however, a darker side to this otherwise joyous occasion: several liberal voters were shot to death by gun-worshiping Trump supporters who believed they were doing nothing more than exercising their 2nd Amendment rights as well as making America great again. The fallen heroes did not die in vain; they had already cast votes for Ms. Clinton. The world mourns for these patriots and stands behind the newly elected president.

If cretin Comey hadn’t interfered, she would be ahead by 8-10 points.

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Interesting (in a not so interesting way) that over the past 24 hours Josh/TPM has had head Clinton trending up in the popular vote but down in the electoral college projection. Hard to figure what gives exactly.

Right. Can someone explain this? TPM electoral numbers seem to be the opposite of what I’m seeing elsewhere. Reason for concern?

Hillary by 6-8…51…maybe 52 Senate.

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And the press needs to describe it as a massive loss for Trump. Yes, Hillary gets to take the Oath of Office but she crushed the Oaf of Office on her way to the Oval Office.

I think HC wins by around 10 points in popular vote. I think these polls dont reflect the real enthusiasm that Trump has generated.