Polls are all over the place. I assume this is because of differences in likely voter/turnout models. Any good article on this topic?
Hold on. The corporate media has the race tighteningâŚitâs going to be a nail biter! According to corporate media that is.
Joe Scar was talking this morning about the trend line showing the polls tightening. His particular trend line is the one called âwishful thinking.â
I put my faith in the Clinton campaign internal polls which would manifest themselves in pivots to stop the down ballot campaigning. Ditching the down ballot hasnât happened yet. It benefits us to have the âhorse raceâ talk on media. Helps with GOTV and keeps us on our toes.
Most of the polling difference has to do with turnout models, including especially demographics. The ABC tracker that now shows Clinton up 6 has 74% of the electorate as white. That is unlikely, especially as 72% of 2012 voters were white and Clinton has ramped up Latino registration and voting dramatically.
The poll surveyed 804 likely voters nationwideâŚ
Except that the survey says they surveyed 804 registered voters⌠this is a bit confusing, they list both likely/registered voters results which only slightly differ from each other. Are most of those 804 registered voters likely voters?
I am a wreck. Every morning I tell myself not to read the news. Not to look at the polls. Every morning I do anyway. This will probably be the longest two weeks of my life.
This weekâs non-tracker polls: ABC/WAPO: C+12 (I know the tracker has gone down to 7, but the initial poll wasnât a tracker; it was the initial baseline poll); Democracy Corps: C+12; Suffolk/USA Today: C+9; Ap-GFK: C+14; Fox: C+5; PPP: C+6; CNBC/Hart: C+10.
Average: Clinton +9.7
Not many candidates have held leads like that with 12 days to go.
I hear you. Although I am not worried about Hillary winning I do hope the landslide will materialize and we can sweep Senate and House. Acid reducers are my friend. 
I am a lurking fan of yours from Dkos . It feels good to be able to tell you how much I enjoy and look forward to your posts. Very informative. Thank you.
Right there with you.
Oh, the polls are tightening. In the same sense that, if I walk down the street to buy a drink, I get closer to Antarctica. The most recent polls, in general, are not quite as bad for Trump as they were a week ago, but thatâs to be expected. Itâs been several days since he did anything truly awful, so some of his supporters are a bit less demoralized. Thatâs all it is. Joe is trying to make it sound significant because ratings.
Almost all the polls add up to low 90s % or less, so there are still way more undecideds or not sayins this late. If there is any cause for worry it is how and for whom they break. (Edit) If they are Republicans who opt not to vote, that means lots of down ballot Repugs who lose their votes in addition to Trump.
Also, I am at a loss why Republican senators and congressmen came out yesterday advocating a permanent block of SC nominees and congressional investigations of Hillary ad nauseam if she is elected. I think this may motivate voters to deliver a landslide at the presidential, senate and house levels just to put a stop to this kind of gridlock. Voters blame the Republicans for this if President vs. Congress approval ratings are to be believed. The Prez is +double digits, while Congress is -55.
Thank you for the laugh!
I agreeâŚ(((And you also get closer to your final destination in a round-the-world trip.)))
Sam Wang and Charlie Cook called this election some time ago. And yet, most people are more than ever motivated to stop this man.
This destroyer of the better part of the Spirit of the United States of America.
The most interesting polling story I have seen this cycle was actually explaining what on Earth is wrong with the LA Times tracking poll. If you havenât seen this story from the NY Times from about 2 weeks ago, I highly recommend it. Basically a lot of the motion in the poll is being caused by a single 19 year old black man in Illinois. And that poll moves the RCP average by up to a point. The story really is as insane as it sounds.
That is the craziest thing Iâve read in very long time. Well, that and âIâm voting for Trumpâ.
Kind of wish Josh would give an explanation when his numbers really bounce around. In the past week the TPM composite has gone from 4.5 to 6 to over 8 to back to 6 and today back to 4.6, all without much apparent change in the national polls. In contrast, Nate Silverâs composite has been pretty consistent in the 6-7 range. And while there does seem to be some movement back to Trump its hard to discern just how much. CNN had a âTrump Dayâ yesterday which they seem to do every once in a while just to show they arenât âbiasedâ and made a big deal of the shift but there numbers seemed to be based mostly on a single poll (from Fox nonetheless). On the other hand, there is at least one poll today (CNBC) with Clinton up 9-10. Its also interesting to note that the three outlier polls (Rasmussen, IBD and LA Times) that had trump up 1-2 points last week have Clinton up by similar amounts this week. Hard to figure. It feels like a football game where you are up to scores; comfortable but not comfortable enough and the clock just wonât move fast enough! Hang in there guys!
RE: The LA Time Poll
Didnât you know, that was Donaldâs African American that he is always talking about?