Time for some Sam Wang-style reality checking. Clinton = 341 EV; Trump=197. Bayesian Prob. of Clinton Win = 88 %. This has been very consistent over time and is close to Larry Sabato’s prediction of 348 E.V. for Clinton.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/
http://election.princeton.edu/todays-electoral-vote-histogram/
Too much obsessing over individual national polls can lead to loss of proportion.
From last week to this week, in the 4 way race, Clinton lost 1 percent, Stein lost 1 percent, Johnson and Trump held steady. Last week the total of all the the candidates was 85 percent, this week, the total is 83 percent. What is going on with the other 15- 17 percent of likely voters? Are they answering that they are undecided? OR none of the above?
Comment was edited to correct the figures.
File under: “My Heart Bleeds”
Hint, HO-Man doesn’t buy ads.
Thinking the same thing. Maybe if the news cycles covered the election more?
I saw KellyAnn on CNN and MSNBC explaining how Trump’s plummeting poll numbers and his position in the polls are…~wait for it!~…"…a good thing." lmao
One of the best cases of “turd polishing” in Trumplandia’s Orwellian Opposite World I’ve seen in some time.
I almost blew coffee out muh’ nose!
Oh KellyAnn…KellyAnn…Have you learned nothing?
The best you can do it roll Trump in some glitter…or in his case, gold foil.
And inside the gilt, he’s still …well, you know…and so does a YOOGE’ majority of the American voting public.
I am no statistician, but it looks to me like there is an increasing, unexplained dichotomy between the results coming out of the national polls and those coming from the individual state-by-state polls, especially in the swing states. I don’t think there is any way that Clinton could be pulling away in the swing states and only be ahead by 5 points nationally. And the opposite would be true, as well; if Clinton is truly ahead nationally by only 5 points, there is no way that she has the growing lead in the swing states that the individual state polls currently indicate. If she has a 5 point national lead, she probably replicates Obama 2012, perhaps adding North Carolina, which would be a heck of a lot better than losing, but nothing like the landslide that some of the individual state polls would indicate and that is occasioning (hasty) happy dancing in some Democratic quarters.
What polling are you referring to? This is from the article:
Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 41-36 in a head-to-head matchup among likely voters nationally in the latest release of the Ipsos/Reuters tracking poll.
The Ipsos/Reuters poll released last week showed Clinton ahead by six points, 42-36, among likely voters in the head-to-head matchup
In the 41 to 36 pol what are the 23 doing?
You are correct. I mixed up the numbers in the head to head poll versus the 4 way poll. I will edit my comment to reflect the correct numbers., thank you for pointing that out.
It is possible they are undecided, have decided to set at home or don’t want to tell anybody what they are really going to do.
The differences between this week and last week in this poll are easily explained as statistical noise.
I phrase it sadistical noise!