2 weeks out and the polls don’t seem to be converging yet. They may not this time around.
National polls don’t mean a whole lot unless they collectively show a shift in one or more key voter groups.
Depending on the pollster/analyst, there are about 2-7 states that could go either way. States such as AZ, IA, NC, OH…
Otherwise, individual polls are more like momentary loud noise in a crowd.
Clinton at 50%+ is more important than the margin.
Bbbbbbbuuuuttt…the Nororious R.I.G. and living yam says:
The Upshot poll in NC this morning showing Clinton +7 in the 4 way and +8 in the 2 way is the most significant survey this cycle. The voter file method they use is what campaigns use, including the Clinton campaign. That poll and Clinton’s growth from September mirrors the change in most national polling. Clinton is on her way to painting NC blue. NV has also shifted blue. These online, national polls are fairly irrelevant. Can you imagine if these guys were around in 2012? Romney would’ve been consistently ahead by 3-5 points.
Once a candidate hits 50% or over you know you’re in a good place
For a few days there has been little movement on electionbettingodds.com . In the last two hours there has been a 4 pt increase in the difference.
What the hell is “daughtergate”??? I don’t want to know what Lukovich was thinking.
I guess they’re good as they’re cited a lot and pair with reputable news organizations, but is Survey Monkey really the best name they could have come up with?