Should have been a safe state for the GOP.
But Trump’s so-called candidacy has upended everything.
A Suffolk University poll shows Hillary Clinton ahead by two points, 44-42, among Nevada’s likely general election voters.
OK.
Suffolk University has not polled Nevada voters about the general election.
So who did Suffolk survey in Nevada for that 44-42 contest? Tumbleweeds? Coyotes?
Should have been a safe state for the GOP.
Why? Obama won it both times, as did Bill Clinton.
FWIW, relative to what wikipedia says the racial demographics of the state are, the Suffolk poll oversamples whites and undersamples Hispanics. I suppose it’s due to the lesser voter registration numbers of the latter.
This is what I dream about at night
You have a pretty avid fantasy life. Clinton ain’t taking Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, SC, Montana, South Dak, MO, IN, or AZ.
Admittedly I do. This would have probably been better described as a Nate Silver wet dream… :-}
Not judging.*
(*Totally judging.)
And there is an interesting article in the New York Times today by Jeremy Peters looking at how Trump’s support with his one demographic, white men, is slipping. It is well behind Romney’s now, and y’know, Romney lost.It also contains the interesting observation if all the non-college white men turned out to vote for Trump he would still lose.
However, in the ever present effort to try to make this race sound at least a little competitive, potentially, maybe, it contains this howler:
“'There are still nearly three months before Election Day, ample time to shift the dynamics of the race.”
No. Just no.
There is not “ample time” for anything. No one in modern times at least has ever reversed a support deficit this large this late in the election cycle. And it is only 51 days until voting actually starts, 81 until it ends.
Nevada is ground-zero for Hispanic mobilization, driven above all by the Las Vegas hospitality unions. Citizen registration started months ago (and continues, in Northern Nevada as well). Voter registration is going on full blast, with money behind it. The Ground Game in the fall will be a classic of union political action, in Spanish, with DREAMers at UNLV and UNR leading the teams.
I wonder how or if these activities are reflected in Likely Voters polls.
Nevada is Blue. Well, brown, mostly, but the sky is almost always blue, except when dumping white on some of the best skiing mountains in the world.
I am content with Sam Wang’s current EV estimate: 341-197. Even a +2 underestimate (or shift) in polling for Clinton only produces a shift of 347-182.
I’m loving the trend!
Nevada, Ohio and Iowa. habe been stubborn this year. Although democrats have been under pokled in Nevada in the past.
Here in bright red AZ, Hillary just might win it!
And hopefully kick that f’ing mcCrank to the curb with her win here!
No, not Nevada. Obama won it twice. In '08 by 12.5% and 7% in '12.
And some things you can’t unsee.
This year, it was said to be the GOP’s for the taking—but that was before Trumpski got the nomination.
Yep. It is like Romney’s “Etch-a-Sketch” thing. It does not exist. You cannot shake a candidate and start over. What is baked in, stays baked in.
I bet with Reid retiring and Clinton running for what’s essentially Obama’s third term, the thought was that the combination of competent GOP presidential and Senate candidates could flip the state. That makes sense, but I trust in Harry Reid and his organization and there’s just no way in hell that dude is ever going to let his seat or his state go to a Republican. I kinda think ole Harry will personally drive people to the polls before he’d let his state succumb to Trump.
Thanks, sitzmark. In-person updates from individual states are what I live for.
Well, electorally speaking. 
(I’m in California. But I left my appendix in Reno: that’s our nearest all-purpose hospital. I don’t think there is a song in there.)
Happy 90th, Tony. He hangs his summer hat up here, and is having a bash Friday in our City, with a statue unveiling, young people singing, and an evening at the Mets-Giants game, where we celebrate victories with his great song: