Discussion: Clinton Holds A Slight Lead Among Virginia Voters

Then why is the Clinton campaign pulling advertising from VA?


[The Emerson College poll was conducted Aug. 30-Sept. 1 via automated poll of landlines only. ]

  • All polls are not created equal and every outlier should not be touted.
    This just a bit more than a week ago.

Two states that the Clinton campaign is not planning to air local ads in through September and October: Virginia and Colorado.With polls showing Clinton up handily over Donald Trump in the two swing states, Clinton’s top aides feel – citing the growth in minority communities and college-educated white voters – confident enough to pull local ads in the two states.


While I don’t think HRC will have the Electoral College blowout that so many are predicting, VA is one state that she’s going to take relatively comfortably.

That being said, I’m not sure I’d be pulling ads entirely in those markets, either… downballot candidates need assistance from the top of the ticket, and getting as many votes for Pres helps them all.


I think there’s too much time left to have pulled ads. Too much can happen to shake up the race at this stage.


Pollster has Clinton up in Virginia 47-38 (updated 16 hrs ago). They have a single poll with Trump ahead by 4 (RABA), a couple of ties, but the rest are comfortable Clinton leads.


People need to stop going over every poll. This election is OVER. I mean stop looking at polls. LOOK around. I live in red state Indiana. Indiana will be the first state to go for Trump on election nite. No where do I see any Trump signs or anyone discussing “oh I love Trump and am voting for him.” But yes Indiana will vote for Trump.

I saw Johnson signs the other day. Trump barely has a ground game. He has idiots like Bachmann supporting him. Hillary is going to win and it’s not even close. I have yet to see any LEGIT poll state that Trump is leading. It’s either Hillary is leading or it’s a statistical tie. You are being conned by forces that profit off elections.

Polls have shown that Hillary had a huge lead in Virginia and what over nite everyone in Virginia changed their mind. A Huffington Post writer wrote a column about polling. How it depends on what day a pollster contacts a supporter. Say if Hillary or Trump has had a good or bad news cycle. Their supporter is more likely to answer the polling.

I don’t even GET how they poll anymore. Who still has a landline? Who doesn’t screen their calls? Virginia has been considered safe for awhile and now all of a sudden Hillary might be losing off this polling? Use some common sense…

On 270towin. I have Hillary on my as negative as can be electoral map at 326-212. 270 runs 10,000 simulations a day based on polling and has Hillary over 90% winning the election. Look at TPM’s Virginia chart and the upswing down swing is ridiculous. That’s not real. It’s a CON


automated poll of landlines only.

That’s bound to be highly accurate. Not.


Just to reiterate. Tim Kaine is a popular politician from Virginia. He was put on the ticket to help put Virginia into the fold. Hillary had a huge lead (look at the chart) and now she may be losing when nothing other then the general negative/positive campaign rhetoric has went on. Trump has done nothing other then bottom out. He has a CORE of support around 35% that will vote for him no matter what. It’s bs but news site (even tpm) will be happy to report this and adjust the election closer. The bottom line is Hillary has more support and will win in November. Really all she has to do is win Ohio or Florida and she wins.

Your poll tracker is shit. Emerson is an absolute joke. WTF are you trying to do here?


TPM is full of it, they pulled this shit with Romney vs Obama too.


Hillary has an 81% chance to win Virginia(538.com), Trump isn’t winning anything.


Legitimate question.

They’ll start the ads up again if there is a need.

I don’t get it. Steve Kornaki (who’s been filling in for Mathews on Hardball) has been reporting for the last 2 days (just now, in fact) that Clinton is ahead by 12 points in Virginia. VA and Colorado (+14 I think) appeared to be out of reach for the orange orangutan.


Manifort was better off under slavery?

Unfortunately (given we keep getting pictures and speeches from tRump) it’s not over. Hillary may be ahead in a number of states and that’s great, but I can tell you that in rural Missouri, you see a lot of Trump signs. But there is another real reason why Clinton needs to keep the pressure, people look to the top of the ticket and judge the party. Clinton and Democrats everywhere need a crushing blow not just for the Presidency but the Senate.

This is one poll, and it’s an Emerson poll which almost always skews right by a fair amount. There have been four Virgnia polls taken in August and the others show her up by 11, 7, and 12 points. The Emerson poll is a clear outlier and should be ignored.

If Hillary by double digits is considered slight, then hell yeah, she’s just eking out the win.

Obviously the Clinton camp has much different internals than we are being hit with at tpm.
I’m betting the Clinton camp’s #'s are far more accurate.

Because the race is NOT close there. Landline polling has a huge GOP bias.