Discussion for article #246102
I think the Bernie wave has just about crested. As more people focus on actual policy, he is going to look less attractive. More and more left-leaning economists are calling Bernie’s plans “magical fiscal thinking.” I for one, would like some achievable progress in my lifetime, not dreams about unicorns.
30 Likes
Yeah. But. She led NH by 50 points about 6 months ago. These things have a way of changing over time.
3 Likes
March 1 is only 13 days away and early voting has already started in some of those states.
9 Likes
9 of the states listed are on 3/1. In fairness to Bernie,the article does not list any results for Colorado or Minnesota,which are also on 3/1,and where I suspect Bernie might be polling pretty well.
4 Likes
I thought that right around Iowa, but the recent Nevada polling and larger-than-expected win in New Hampshire has me wondering. Still, the more scrutiny Sanders gets, the more he will look like a one-dimensional candidate who is overpromising stuff with an admittedly clear and inspiring message. That’s my take at least.
6 Likes
From the cross tabs I’ve seen in other polls, in many of these states, the white vote is close or even also. It reinforces the theory that Iowa and New Hampshire have pretty darn liberal voters in the Dem primaries. This brings us back around to why are they first? Half or more of the field drop out before the candidates meet a diverse electorate. I don’t think that’s very helpful in determining the best nominee.
16 Likes
I see you’ve been reading Krugman. 
10 Likes
Thanks for reminding me that Virginia has already opened up the “absentee” voting, which is what it calls “early” voting, which is not allowed under the current rules. In other words, you have to give an excuse. Grrrr.
Definitely should be polling well in Minnesota.
3 Likes
Hoo boy. And here we go . . .
6 Likes
It’s open in Texas too and it is early voting here. Going to cast my ballot today.
3 Likes
You may be right. Nevada might be “Ground Zero” for him. I know this. Both campaigns will be barraging supporters with fundraiser emails over the spate of polls.
2 Likes
True, but time is a key factor, and Bernie doesn’t have nearly as much time to turn things around in these states. On the other hand, a win by Bernie in Nevada, combined with a stronger than expected finish in South Carolina, could shake things up and these polls could start to look pretty outdated pretty fast. More likely, though, things will tighten but Hillary will hold onto her leads in most of theses states.
3 Likes
Really not a fan of this site describing Bernie coming close but still losing a poll as “obliterating” Hillary but when Hillary has a real, actual, COMMANDING lead we get a sober and neutral headline. Can we have some consistency here in one direction or the other please?
11 Likes
Since all polling news about Hillary is bad, shouldn’t the headline really read something like this?
PPP Polls: Sanders ahead in 2 March primary states and surging to second in 10 others
25 Likes
“double digit lead”
isn’t strong enough for you?
they could have gone with “HRC leading mostly red states that will go repub in November”
3 Likes
Left wing economists critical of Bernie’s plans also include Austan Goolsbee formerly chairman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, now at the University of Chicago. and Jared Bernstein, economic adviser to Joe Biden.
12 Likes
This race gets harder to call. Clinton has a nice lead going into super Tuesday for the moment. If Sanders can win NV and keep it within ten-to-fifteen in SC, we’ll have a contest. However, if he loses convincingly in both (eight-ish points in NV), the revolution is pretty well over. It would be hard to play the revolution card if you lose the first three out of four. Delegates are awarded proportionally, but perception is not. Going to be an interesting couple of weeks!
3 Likes
Prediction: If Hillary sweeps these states as expected, the Sanders crew will take to social media to demand that the established primary rules be changed after the fact so that Bernie can win fair and square.
16 Likes