You go, girl! Keep on railing at Trump–it’s working!!
So, we have four new polls (not to obsess over them, but…) , as follows: Ipsos Reuters, Clinton up by 12, and steady; ABC, Clinton up by 4, and down fractionally; NBC, Clinton up by 5, and steady; and Rasmussen, Trump up by 7, and steady. Seems to me that PollTracker ought to reflect these developments at some point. And it would be great if PollTracker or a TPM reporter could explain the specific reasons for PollTracker changes when they occur, and not just to describe the methodology.
And just released CNN, with Clinton up by 7, 49 to 42.
Unsurprisingly, Rasmussen has done their normal thing of “curating” their results quite nicely, showing strength for the Republican candidate just as their convention gets underway. From now until just days, or even hours, before the election, I’ll consider their polls - no matter what they show - suspect.
Rasmussen aside, I would like to understand the chart algorithm better. But if you think TPM’s is confusing, give Huffpost a look. Their charts are completely inexplicable. At times I have “customized” a chart that makes no inherent sense (examples in past include showing a 3-point race when several polls over a period of weeks shows no margin of less than 5) to remove the lowest margin poll, only to have the chart project an even closer race. It’s just wacky, making the TPM poll tracker seem quite reasonable by comparison.
Nate Silver has a rather disturbing graphic showing Clinton’s chance of winning down to 65.5%. That means Trump has a 1 in 3 chance. That should motivate every liberal/progressive to vote, get friends/family to vote, register voters, etc. As good as it may look right now, Clinton has been trending lower and lower on fivethirtyeight; we need to leave nothing to chance.
Three national polls today show Secretary Clinton holding leads of 4, 5, and 7%. I (and, I am sure, many other TPMers) are breathing a wee bit easier this morning. We will know more a week from today when the post-RNC convention polls are released.
My prediction (prayer?) is that Messrs. Trump and Pence will NOT receive a significant bounce from their convention.
I want to know about the morning talk show appearances, and then 60 minutes later. Apparently there was visible friction between T and P in the 60 M segment.
I simply cannot believe 40% of voting Americans think Donald Trump is a viable Presidential candidate! It really is stunning.
Is it usual that third-party candidates poll well, but as the election gets closer lose their supporters to the major parties? I can’t imagine people are motivated to bother to vote for candidates who are certain to lose on election day.
The other day when that CBS poll came out Bob Schieffer described it a “devastating” news for Ms. Clinton. I guess he can retract that now. Do any of these news people worry about their integrity at all?
It’s not difficult to find minstrels who will say anything, for that amount of money.
Nothing is off limits. In fact, I am a bit surprised that there hasn’t been more criticism of Clinton’s fashion—either the design, how big it makes her hips look, the cost—you name it.
If current trends continue, you can bet they’ll go there.
I really think using a site such as Five Thirty Eight is the way to analyze these polls. Does anyone on here use 270 to win website? I have never been contacted by any of these pollsters and I vote in just about every election. I have no landline. I don’t know how pollsters get your cell phone or e-mail. I screen most of my cell calls.
As for the election. I was talking to a friend rarely follows the politico polling news. They laughed when I told them I was preparing for the worst: A TRump Presidency. But don’t laugh it could happen and as I have detailed in other postings. I am working overtime, saving as much money as I can and not making any major purchases until November along with planning on protecting my 401K investments. I totally buy that a Trump Presidency will cause a recession and possibly cost me my job. Maybe even lead to a foreign crisis.
Thanks for that CNN information. Very encouraging.
I agree with you that the lack of transparency in the polling enterprise is not only frustrating, but leads to all kinds of theories about why certain polls lean one way and others the other way. There is a big opportunity for TPM to fill the information gap.
The average of the CBS,ABC,NBC and CNN polls before the 2012 GOP Convention…
Obama 47
Romney 46
The average of the CBS,ABC,NBC and CNN polls before the 2016 GOP Convention…
Clinton 46
Trump 41
Of the dozen’s and dozen’s of polls taken in the last year Clinton has the lead in 90% of them. TV news like’s to over dramatize the situation for ratings purposes, but when it’s all over I think people will look back and realize the smart money was on Clinton the whole time.
I dunno… the Trump campaign is continuing to make great strides in nailing down the Jim Crow vote with a brilliant tactic of hanging signs like this at Quicken Loans Arena:
But, according to Nate, Hillary is trending down slower than Trump is trending up.
I simply cannot believe 40% of voting Americans think Donald Trump is a viable Presidential candidate!
It shouldn’t surprise you. 45.7% of the 2008 electorate—just short of 60 million voters—thought that Sarah Palin was qualified to be President, and she’s every bit the batshit lunatic ignoramus that Trump is.
No
Maybe it’s just me, but I have almost no interest in polls this far out. There may be some meaning in terms of trends, but really, only the last six weeks or so interest me. I think the media loves polls to concoct stories and “explanations” for every little blip in the numbers. It’s analysts justifying their paycheck and much of what they say, I don’t find convincing. I mean, we just dealt with the sky is falling for Hillary because of the Quinnipiac numbers…and they’ll probably be outliers. The value is polls in the aggregate, but that’s not a sexy story for the media.
That being said, if I were part of a campaign, I’d follow the polls more closely in terms of deciphering what the numbers mean…especially the “sub” numbers.
I never pick up my landline unless I know who it is that’s calling, and I know many others do the same. How does this affect polls?