Discussion for article #224128
Not really answering the question, are we? Still waiting for the explanation of how the 34 point Cantor lead was polled?
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Dude: Even I can predict that past. Your job was was to predict the future.
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Well, from what I can gather, McLaughlin is accusing Democrats and independents of 'ratfu*king Cantor. Therefore his wildly of the mark polling is not his fault.
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wha wha wut!
Hats off to Democrats, if in fact they managed to sabotage Cantor’s primary. It’s a lot of trouble for something that seldom works, and is nearly impossible to coordinate secretly.
Trouble is, much like the rival factions in Iraq, there’s no guarantee that the new boss is any darn better than the old.
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Bullshit obfuscation. If those numbers are true, then true republicans showed little interest in this election. It suggests that republican enthusiasm is in the dumpster or that the numbers are just bogus.
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Don’t all polls have “likely voters” and registered voters separation for precisely this reason?
Also, a friendly reminder that a lot of independents are in fact Republicans who don’t identify as Republicans, so of course Brat won those. And, given that McLaughlin himself conducted this CYA post-election polling, we can’t really completely trust it. (Anybody know if a sample size of 400 is big enough? Anyone better at this than me see anything wonky in the crosstabs?)
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If you look at the sampling, only 50 out of 400 were actually Democrats. You can’t complain too much about independents regardless of which way they lean in practice when people like Bill O’Reilly calls themselves “independents”.
Also, Cantor lost among people who said they’re going to vote for Brat in the general, the biggest chunk by far (Brat won among those saying they’re going to vote for the Dem and Cantor won among undecideds, both about the same size). That suggests his margin was in Republican-leaning independents, i.e. teabaggers.
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PollDancing can be hazardous to poliltical health.
Tea-Freakin’Hee!
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I think it’s guaranteed that the likely new boss (Brat) will not be better than the old boss. Only good thing is that the new boss will be toothless because of a total lack of seniority.
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So the explanation to why his poll was off was to produce another poll. Right.
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I was just going to point that out. 50/400 is just a smidgeon over 10%. Hardly a surge in Democratic voting.
Some of the numbers are fishy. For example, he’s got a total sample size of 400; they’re broken down by party (p.2) into 216 Republican, 179 non-Republican, 50 Democrat, and 128 independent. Now there could be one third-party registrant to give 179 non-Republicans instead of 178, but the total should still add up to 400.
Also, the percentages are all off. He gives Cantor’s share of the vote among Republicans as 54.5%, but there’s no way to get that with whole numbers of people. 117 would be 54.2%, and 118 would be 54.6%. It’s like that all through the table.
ETA another one I just noticed:
total n: 400 cell phones: 100 land lines: 301
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You want the real explanation? Here it is:
No one ever went broke telling Republicans what they want to hear and think they already know.
Lots of people have gone broke trying to tell Republicans the truth.
The end.
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that is the truth…
So Dems and the like voted for someone more conservative? Seems like a stretch to me. The only way that math works overall is if more Dems and their ilk voted than Republicans. I can see some small scale voting but no way do they out vote the GOP. Not enough to account for a 34 point swing.
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Basically, it sounds like he is saying he polled people who have voted/donated money to Cantor before, and most of them still supported Cantor. He wasn’t concerned with people who didn’t traditionally support Cantor…
Trying to blame this on cross over voting in one of the most republican districts in the country is laughable. It becomes rolling around on the floor laughable when you see the breakdown of where the votes for Brat came from…the reddest parts of one of the reddest districts.
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46 point swing. He had Cantor up by 34 points and he lost by 12 points.
The bottom line is when you are off that badly, you weren’t doing your job. There is nothing in his whining excuses that wasn’t known before the election…they knew it was an open primary, they knew there was no Democratic primary going on. I suspect,and his excuses here seem to indicate, that he was not interested in what people who didn’t support Cantor thought, so he just discounted/ignored those responses. Much faster way to do polling, which frees you up for more time at the steak houses.
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If only someone would pay me for telling it . . .