Discussion: California Presidential Primary

Based on my internal polling, I can announce that I am the apparent winner of the California primary. Huzzah!

FYI California polls close at:

Midnight Eastern
10 PM Central
9 PM Mountain
8 PM Pacific

…and is a ā€œsemi-openā€ primary, in which both registered party members and ā€œno party preferenceā€ voters may participate.

I voted last week via mail because I had too. I tell ya, voting by mail has no flavor. Give me a voting place chock-a-block with fellow Americans flipping levers or punching cards with those little, stubby poking things! I want to see and wave to my neighbors! I want to smell the sweet smell of democracy!

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Hahahaha
He really thought he was going to win here

Still very early… but with 8.3% precincts reporting :

Hillary Clinton 546,710 (61.9%)
Bernie Sanders 315,759 (35.7%)

Ouch.

I see that the results are in from San Diego county. No way are these the complete returns from San Diego county. The polls closed a half an hour ago. It takes a half an hour just to close out the polls, and deliver the ballots to central collection areas. From there, they are trucked to a location where they are counted. Numbers usually start coming in around the 11 pm news. I guessing the results are from early voting and absentee ballots.

Now 24% in:

Hillary Clinton 708,177 (63.2%)
Bernie Sanders 398,939 (35.6%)

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I think Hillary has got this one.

Goes to show you the polls that had Sanders and Clinton in a tie were dead wrong…

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They were a little strange. Four polls in a row come in as Clinton +2, Clinton +2, Clinton +1 and Clinton +2. That almost makes no sense. Seeing four polls come in with almost the exact same results in a race is almost as rare as getting the same number four times in a row in roulette. All four called it for Clinton. If it were that close, they should have gone either way.

I suspect that the polling companies try very hard to make races appear closer than they really are. It’s the only way they can get any attention. They still want to call the winner, but they want the margin to be exciting.

It’s still early and this could still tighten up a lot. But we are at 32% in and its:

Hillary Clinton 940,767 (62.2%)
Bernie Sanders 553,836 (36.6%)

Which is a hole to be sure. But most of this is early/absentee voting. Once we start seeing same-day voting, we will get a better sense of how this one will go.

But as CNN reported about 10 mins ago (but many of us here pointed out last Friday) Clinton has secured the majority of pledged delegates.

Anybody with a functioning brain KNEW that Hillary was more than 2 points in head of Bernie. Now, I didn’t think she’d beat him by 18, but by more than 5 points. Those were small, weird, right-winged weighted polls with SMALL samplings. The bigger the poll respondents with a decent moe–those were the polls which were more accurate when averaged. One of those small outlier polls had close to a 5 point margin of error :smile: And while I didn’t like that the AP called Hillary the presumptive nominee, It didn’t hurt Bernie. She murdered Bernie in absentee ballots and I doubt if Bernie gets 1 million or more walk up voters in one day. Voting was slightly down from 2008 as many people KNEW already that the race was OVER before the AP call. Now Bernie is demanding things per his LOSS speech? Bernie, but the pipe of whatever you’re smoking dow IS!!!

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85% of the vote counted, and the race is still not called with HRC up by 13 points.

I don’t get it.

Finally. Wow.

Called at 88% with HRC leading by 13.

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With 92% reporting, the primary has been called for Clinton. She’s 13 points ahead, which is quite good, considering the rhetoric from the Bernie campaign and the couple of polls showing it as close as 2 points.

I voted for Bernie in NH, donated to his campaign, and volunteered at the local storefront. But I have become deeply disillusioned with Bernie, his top campaign staff, and his most vehement supporters. When I went to bed, I prayed for a really solid Clinton victory in CA so that Bernie and his followers might get the message. I’m glad he got trounced.

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B-b-but Cokie and Wolf said the ā€œpollsā€ in California had tightened and that it was a toss-up. Dumbasses.

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Congrat Hillary!!!

You did it!!!

Now let’s finish this big win in November!

I’m fired up and ready to go!!!

The issue with polling is that in a state with the kind of dynamic process like CA they miss the hard work that happens early. They are a slice of mood and time. I am sure at the end it was that close.

If you take out the first hour of votes announce you will notice that Bernie won the vote. The early votes were mostly ā€˜early votes’, and mailed ballots sent in days or weeks ago. She won because her campaign, much like Obama in 2008 worked that stuff hard, while the cash strapped Bernie campaign could not because it was so focused on the next prize, and not the long game.

This bodes well for the general election. Trump ran an unorthodox primary campaign. That will not work in the general. As Josh says, different electorate, different campaign.