Discussion: By The Numbers: How The Midterms Locked In Deeper Political Polarization

Donnelly is Indiana not Missouri.

Joe Donnelly (D-MO), Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) and Claire McCaskill (D-MO),

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Republicans continue to lose the actual vote counts by larger and larger numbers. End gerrymandering, and get the House properly apportioned, and all of this nonsense about ‘polarization’ evaporates.

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Republicans are losing on the numbers, but they’re still winning because of the way the US Constitution limits true democracy. Want to really effect change long term? Move to a red or purple state. I know it’s not feasible for everyone, but there are some very lovely “flyover” states and each of those states has a pocket of blue in a sea of red.

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If, and its a big if, the Dems hold onto their lead in AZ and claw back in FLA, then their prospects for the Senate look marginally better in 2020-2022…

In 2020, they might pick off Collins but beyond that, it is still a tough road, given the Immaculate Election in Alabama where Doug Jones won. That seat won’t hold,

Looking at 2022, Wisconsin may be flippable, which then leaves NC and maybe AZ as the 50th seat…

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Further polarization is to be expected. As the demographic shifts continue, the GOP will become more and more radicalized and insular as gains are made by the Dems/liberals. It’s why they love to look at the electoral map so much and tout the number of counties and vomit idiotic nonsense like “look at it…we’re a red/conservative country.” Yes, the same people who like to spew “We The People” the way they spew shit they hear at church…like it has magical spell properties…don’t really like or want to recognize/accept the fact that our government is supposed to be of the people, by the people and for the people when confronting that fact means recognizing that for all that red area on the map surrounding tiny blue areas, the real demographic situation…the REAL way to visually represent what is happening…is that THEY are slowly shrinking red islands in an increasingly blue ocean. They know it. It’s why we can’t have nice things and instead have to put up with the corrupt, criminal batshit that has taken place during a decade-long whirlwind temper tantrum after a black guy’s election as POTUS sounded their white Christian nationalist Defcon 5 alarms.

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Democrats can win back the Senate in 2020 if they are able to compete in some of the states where Trump won by single digits in 2016. While there are only two GOP seats up in states that the Dems actually won in 2016 (Maine and Colorado), there are another five in states where they lost by single digits (Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, and Texas) and the results from this year’s election suggest that in a good year they could be competitive in any of them. Montana is also a possible target for the Democrats in 2020, given Jon Tester’s win there this year and the relative popularity of current governor Steve Bullock and former governor Brian Schweitzer, bot Democrats.

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Even scandal didn’t seem to have the impact it once did.

This seems to have been the central strategy of the DNC. Hope that disgusted citizens would vote against all the cheats and liars and supporters of a monstrously horrible president. That did not happen.

Instead, the DNC needs to follow the lead of massive amounts of grassroots Democrats who worked their asses off and all the fresh people who ran for office because they couldn’t stay silent. Democrats have indeed made massive gains thanks to the grass roots efforts. They led a “vote for us, we are here to make our city, state, county, country better, and this is how” campaign.

The DNC needs to stand up and scream from mountain tops why the choice for the people, all the people, is the Democrat party. Have a few discrete core policies and point off to the horizon and say “this is who we are, these are the focused things we are concentrating on, this is how we are going to do it, THIS is where we are going, join us!”.

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How we vote doesn’t polarize us, it is just a reflection of how we think.

What polarizes me is some idiot telling me I don’t believe the Bible because I don’t believe man walked with dinosaurs!

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This old geezer has some advice for new voters and recent enthusiasts…

Politics is like a Slinky Toy…

The front end won’t move until the back end slinks up and bumps it forward, yet the back end can’t move until the front end leads the way…

Cause and effect are entwined inextricably, but telling them apart can be confusing, and figuring how to manage it all seems impossible sometimes…

Somehow it works, but waiting on that “bump” can be more than a little frustrating sometimes, the wait since Trump has been interminable, but it happened on Tuesday.

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Reporting like this, treating the democratic process of voting, as a horse race doesn’t add to anyone’s understanding of why people vote they way they do. The animosity, the hope, the despair, the revenge that voters feel, none of it is present here. It’s statistics only and they don’t win elections.

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but that is why we write stump speeches…

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Looking at 2022, Wisconsin may be flippable, which then leaves NC and maybe AZ as the 50th seat…

I don’t have the list by state of senators up for reelection in 2020 but there will be 21 Republicans and 11 Democrats up for reelection. How many are red-red or blue-blue or purple might make the difference in who controls the Senate going forward. And of course if Trump is in prison or still in office. And to if all of us haven’t succumbed to Trump and are living in a fetal position, on the floor, sucking our thumbs. Anyway …

But after watching Beto O’Rourke I’m reminded of how very important the candidate’s quality (personality/charisma) matters in campaigns.

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Well noted, I overlooked Colorado…

Take ME and CO, lose AL and you are 51 unless something truly untoward happens…

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Interestingly the reporter is a self-described avid sports fan

He grew up near Chicago and is an irrationally passionate Cubs fan.

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Beto’s got another opportunity in the very same venue in 2020.
I don’t know what everyone thinks, but I know Cornyn is more popular than Cruz.
Regardless, by then Beto may be a steamroller, not just another candidate.

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Good analysis. The short version: hold onto those suburbs!

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WoW, Holy Cow, never crossed my mind. Another reason for Cornyn to hate Cruz even more. Made my day. Thanks.

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I’ll throw this one out:

Biden runs with Beto as his VP with Joe stating he will only serve one Term…

Can you top that?

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What happens when Collins and Hunter are convicted - do they have to resign? How are their replacements chosen?

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