Discussion: Bush Polls In Distant Fourth In Florida

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Discussion for article #241940

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Ouch.

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We’ve seen the Bush Act before and Brother of W Bush, Jeb Bush, has the same advisors and the same policies as W Bush:
Continuous War
Concentration of Wealth
Declining Wages and Salaries
Loss of Economic Mobility for Middle Class Families
Health Care in which Families Pay More and Corporations Provide Less
Environmental Regulations that Work to Destroy the Planet
“Free Trade”, Like Obama’s, that Costs Jobs and Raises Prices
No Thank You.

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This is the worse news for the flailing Bush campaign. If he can’t win Florida, hell, if he can’t even be the Establishment candidate for Florida, his donors start jumping ship.

Whatever strategy the GOP goes with for 2016, it absolutely starts with winning Florida. They have no realistic path to the White House without it…none. Florida is the “firewall” for the Bush campaign, they were always going to point this fact out to people on the fence; now the firewall is coming down.

Bush has the money (we think; his super PAC certainly does) to weather mediocre showings in IA, NH, SC and even NV. But only if he is the clear winner in Florida, at least for the Establishment wing.

And so we setup the nightmare scenario for the GOP. Bush stays in the race through Florida, splitting the votes with Rubio, and giving Trump a clear lead in delegates, and then realizing, too late, that its all for naught. Trump wins the nomination and the vaunted Bush machine is retired in shame.

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Fool me once…

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Bush will be out in the next couple of months. Once the money dries up, there is no reason to continue to support him. Trump will not be the GOP nominee. He can’t beat Carson or Rubio once the candidates start to fall away. I would like to see Bush, Huckabee, Jindal, Paul, Kasich, get out now. That would leave Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Cruz and Rubio to duke it out.

I thought Kasich would be a little stronger but he has run a terrible campaign. I had hoped for a Kasich/Rubio ticket.

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And that’s a bad thing?

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I know you did. A lot of republicans did for the geographic match up. But it ignores the much bigger ideological battle going on within your party right now.

Fiorina is on her way out, too. She is starting the long plunge downward, and given that her two biggest donors are giving more money to Rubio and Cruz, who are both starting to make their moves, her campaign is dead. She stays around as a possible VP candidate for one or both, that’s it. But her viability as a Presidential nominee is not there.

If the trend in Florida, in particular, continues for Bush, I believe you are correct. That really is his main, and perhaps only, selling point right now. If he can’t win Florida for his own wing, let alone for the party nomination, then he certainly can’t win it in a general election. That ends his electability argument right there.

The only question for me on that point, is how quickly his support in Florida craters. If its a slow spiral, he stays in long enough to keep splitting the votes with Rubio, dooming them both. If it happens faster, than yeah, he bails and endorses his lil buddy.

But that’s not necessarily good news for Rubio. I still think he is too green, and will fold like a cheap suit once he starts getting hammered by Trump, Cruz and Carson all at the same time. And then the real panic sets in for the Establishment.

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that was my first thought

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If Bush, Huckabee, Jindal, Paul, Kasich, and Christie got out of the race, it still won’t be enough to propel Rubio ahead of Trump. Huckabee and Jindal’s voters would go to a mix between Carson, Cruz, and Trump. Paul’s would be spread out between Cruz and Rubio, while Jeb!'s and Kasich’s would probably go solidly to Rubio. Either way, it’s not at all enough to propel Rubio to the top. The best case scenario would be that Carson rises over Trump. For the GOP, that might actually be worse for their electoral chances than even Trump.

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The problem with that is the primary schedule. The FLA primary is March 15th and 24 other states,including Texas,will have already held their primary/caucus. Ohio is on the same day as FLA too.

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True, I suspect this thing will effectively be over by around 11:00 pm on Super Tuesday.

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And Trump and Cruz will hammer him for his 2012 Comprehensive Immigration Reform vote too.

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"Perchance he for whom this bell tolls may be so ill, as that he knows not it tolls for him; and perchance I may think myself so much better than I am, as that they who are about me, and see my state, may have caused it to toll for me, and I know not that."

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Precisely. And with all of those states using proportional voting to determine delegate counts, it makes it more likely that a Trump will be sewing up the necessary delegates, while Rubio and Bush are fighting over the crumbs.

The way the schedule is set up, Trump doesn’t need 51% of the GOP support. He can easily have the nomination sewn up by the end of March with only 30% support.

Oh you know it’s coming, once Rubio moves into the spotlight. Trump is going to eviscerate him, which is why Rubio is moving soooo far to the right now on Immigration.

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That’s going to be a big problem. The more I think about it the more I realize the establishment is probably better off with the field remaining a bit crowded right now. If Rubio is their great hope then the last thing he needs are a bunch of people dropping out. He needs the cover of all the other candidate’s arguing with another so that he doesn’t become the focus. If it comes down to everyone trying to beat back the moderate, he doesn’t have the chops to withstand it and his canned rhetoric will exposed.

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Thanksgiving is Nov.26, 2015.

I think Jeb! will be out before that.

Could make for a much nicer Thanksgiving dinner with the Bush presidents…

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Bush Polls In Distant Fourth In Florida

Wonder why?

  • As Florida Governor Jeb let the uninsured rate jump from 17.4% to 19.8%. Now
    he wants to take that plan national.

  • Under Governor Jeb Bush’s watch 9-11 hijackers obtained Florida ID Cards and now Jeb is touting his record on national security.

Such chutzpah.

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You know the usual strategy is “the more voters get to know (fill in the blank), the more they will agree with (fill in same name)”.
In Jeb’s case, it’s the opposite.
Granted, Jeb, like the Republican Party, is saddled with W’s legacy - and that’s a heavy load.
But, Jeb seems to have inherited W’s dimwittedness and inarticulateness.
So, in Jeb’s case, we have a candidate with ‘policies’ that are the same as W’s, a candidate with policies that are pure and simple corporate Republican, and a candidate who cannot clearly articulate those policies — Hey, maybe that’s a plus after all. Maybe that’s “the strategy”: The voters won’t be able to figure out what Jeb’s talking about!!
The Republican Party can bank on bamboozling the voters with Jeb, just like it did with W !!!
The less you get to know about Jeb, the better!

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Maybe I am getting old, but I thought the point was to nominate the most conservative candidate that can win a general election. I don’t think you are going to nominate someone to the right of Rubio, Kasich, Bush, etc…and win a general election.

The problem with Rubio as a nominee, at least for me, is his level of experience. I thought Obama was not prepared to be President and I don’t think Rubio is either.

I equate it to being a really good Company Commander and then your next job is Commanding General.

When a lifelong conservative like Kasich is now a RINO and not acceptable, then the party is lost in the wilderness.

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