Discussion: Bluegrass Poll: Grimes Takes Narrow Lead Over McConnell

Bill Clinton.

http://www.politicususa.com/2014/10/06/bubba-power-bill-clinton-politician-angry-voters-love-2014.html

Call it the Bubba bounce.

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No, two data points do not a trend make, but it feels good and if she’s got an effective GOTV effort she just might pulll it off.

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No. It’s likely our old friend beej manipulating his latest sock… Just ignore it.

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I think it will be almost impossible to convince the MSM to abandon its " this is a Republican year" narrative. Hell, even TPM is adhering to that narrative.

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this would be the greatest thing ever…would love to be at the White House the moment the race is called

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Pretty much just Bill. Hillary is coming, and that’s a good thing but rural KY loves them some Bubba.

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Bubba bounce works really well in KY. He’s a big hit here no matter where he shows up.

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Sadly, I think you’re right. They seem to forget how momentum is generated, and all too often concede the talking point based on a Republican leaning poll. Dems allow themselves to be their own worst enemy…and frankly, it pisses me off. President Obama knew how to create momentum with confidence and assurance that many of the polls when he ran for office against Romney were based on rather wishful thinking on the part of Republicans, rather than any true indication of a final outcome. They knew they had a better GOTV operation and that’s where the Dems should be putting their energy way in advance of election day…even if it means getting people to turn out to make a statement against Voter Suppression efforts all across the country. Republicans and some wimpy Dems sure know how easy it is to demoralize Democratic voters, which does nothing more than depress voter turnout. Its really very basic to effective politicking…and Rs have been using this same tactic from their playbook for many elections now.

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There are few things that would make me happier this election than to see McConnell lose. He’s one of the most despicable GOPers there is, and there are a lot of them.

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It seems to me that Mitch McConnell and Pat Roberts have an awful lot in common. They have very similar ideologies. They’re both old white men who have forged careers receiving the same tax dollars they decry as evil. They’re almost like two peas in the same pod. Their time has come and gone. Senators of a feather should leave their careers together.

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Count me as one of those progressives second guessing her. She is pro-coal and opposes real action on global warming. I hope she wins because she is the lesser evil, but I’m not going to pretend to be excited about her. I sure as hell hope the Democrats are smart enough to keep her out of any leadership positions so long as she feels the need to give comfort to science deniers.

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I hope she wins.
Congress in general and the Senate in particular have degenerated into dysfunctional pantomimes. If members continue to be featured in and on the two-ring circus that now serves as our media they might as well be as good-looking as the anchors. Eye-candy instead of “I-can’t-ees”.

When poll dancing proves to be correct…

Lemme know.

Put it this way, McConnell has an ad up in which he shows Grimes’ interview with the Courier Journal when she was running for Secretary of State. In the interview she says she would serve out her full term. Then they show a clip of then State Senator Obama saying he’d serve out his full term as US Senator. The ad concludes with saying Obama and Grimes are exactly the same. His entire campaign is Grimes=the Nig-uh-Obama. That’s it. There’s one positive ad but the rest are these incredibly lame attempts to make Grimes sound like Obama’s white female doppleganger. I think that’s worn thin. Sure, KYians hate Obama (mostly because he’s black) but that doesn’t mean they’re going to reelect a 30 year senator who can’t give them a single reason why he should be reelected.

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This is what drives me insane about the left. YOU. CANNOT. WIN. STATEWIDE. OFFICE. IN. KENTUCKY. BY. BEING. ANTI-COAL. You can’t, it’s impossible. One of the most popular license plates in KY is “Friends of Coal”. The coal industry has very deep, very emotional roots in this state. I don’t want to be sitting at some victory party on Election Night drowning my sorrows by toasting a moral victory. Her smart move is to get elected, bring home a mess of jobs to Eastern and Western KY, start attacking fracking and natural gas as the root of coals ill, and then start talking about energy alternatives and renewables. She’s not going to change KYians minds with high-minded rhetoric about an industry that as near and dear to our hearts as horse racing and bourbon. She can, however, begin to make incremental changes. She can’t do that if she’s not in the position of power to do so.

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The generic ballot is dead even. That simply isn’t consistent with it being either party’s year.

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You should probably join the Tea Party. Ideological purity is more highly prized there. All politics is local and you can’t win a local election by opposing local positions. This is what Grimes is facing:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/df/Kentucky_presidential_election_results_2012.svg/608px-Kentucky_presidential_election_results_2012.svg.png

The red indicates counties carried by Romney in 2012 and the blue indicates those carried by Obama (remember, Bill Clinton carried this state twice while Obama lost it, 60.5% to 37.8%, in 2012). The darker the color, the greater the margin of victory. Admittedly, it’s not as dire a picture as West Virginia, but it’s still an uphill battle. McConnell’s entire campaign has been devoted to tying Grimes to Obama. If she wants to win she has to be pro-coal, non-Obama. Politics is still the art of the possible.

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Been waiting for your take, Plucky. To put it in perspective, it would be like a Dem trying to run for Senate here in NY on a Defense of Marriage platform, but even more so.

The emotional component is key - truth is, coal isn’t as big a part of the KY economy as it used to be (same for my home state of Pennsylvania) but it resonates, especially when people construe the real need to d
Find cleaner energy alternatives as an attack on not only on their livelihood, but their identity.

The other thing in KY is they need the government, especially in the poorer parts of the state, where poverty has mixed with a serious meth epidemic. ALG and Jack Conway have been fighting for this aid, while McConnell does nothing. The stupid GOP idea to cut earmarks hasn’t helped him any, which serves him right.

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Yea. McConnell’s sickening hate ads have been running 2 more weeks and are wearing quite thin. Yep two more weeks that he has done nothing for America but run hate ads against a President struggling to protect america from ISIS and Eubola whille the right wing noise machine blares on. Kentuckians may not like the President but they sure as Hell don’t like Mitch either. While Mitch may think they like him more than Barack, Obama is not the Senator from Kentucky and has done more for Kentucky in the last 4 years than Mitch. He will lose. Allison has run a smart campaign and never has taken here eye off the ball. If she can make this a referendum on Mitch She Wins.

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The irony here is that before 9/11 the national attention was on an energy policy, not jingoistic war mongering.