Well…shit.
From what I have read, this was a Republican-friendly sample. Looks like their electorate differs from that of Quinnipiac and CBS News/YouGov. But so as not to be accused of unskewing, it does seem that Ohio will be very tight.
I am +5 with someone who I totally hate (Bloomberg). In reality, I am sure I am +30.
Someone on the Tweeter opined that the crosstabs read more like Indiana.
This is before the wobble and basket so not sure what to make of this. I guess, just throw it on the pile and let the average work itself out.
The wreckage this man will leave (even if he loses) will be greater than that the Germans faced after WWII. Not all damage is bombed-out buildings. These totals mean that 65+% of Ohio whites are with Trump.
And in Red States even worse.
Try THAT with the standard beer commercial with four guys…three white and one black.
This poll is done by Selzer, who did the Iowa Poll for many years. Pretty reputable group, although no pollster is perfect. That said, use this as motivation to get off your butt and help GOTV.
We’re doing a “day of action” this Saturday in Iowa, where I live, going door to door. It works. I’m sure there are similar activities happening this week near where you live. Get involved.
The problem with the poll is that I am not sure that the demographics make sense when compared to the Ohio presidential election of 2012. For example the poll had a 50/50 split on gender lines but I believe that in 2012 more women voted than men in Ohio’s presidential election. We shall see but I don’t see any evidence that the HRC campaign in backing off on Ohio nor should it. It will come down to turnout and who has the better ground game.
The only state where men might be at parity or a higher proportion of voters is Alaska. Ohio will be close, there is no doubt. You could not skew a poll in California by using selective demographics even if you wanted to. Selzer acknowledged that her demographic assumptions deviated from Quinn and YouGov, under the assumption that 2012 was an outlier year and voting patterns would reflect earlier years, specifically 2004.
I assume it’s an outlier, but maybe if she apologized some more? It’s what got MSNBC to the top!
83% white, 15% minority 24% 65+, R+7 poll. YouGov, taken the two days prior to this one, had a D+5 and 22% minority, had Clinton +7. These 2 polls cancel each other out essentially, but provide 2 dueling theories of the electorate. Selzer thinks we’re going to party like it’s 2004. YouGov and ABC/WAPO think we’re partying with Mr. 58%. If Clinton gets her vote out, she wins.
One of the questions of Bloomerg poll:
In politics as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or independent? (If independent, ask:) Do you lean more toward the Republicans or more toward the Democrats, or are you totally independent?
33 Republican
10 Lean Republican
17 Totally independent
7 Lean Democrat
29 Democrat
1 Other (VOL) 2 Refused/not sure
I simply cannot fathom that MILLIONS of people are actually voting for Donald Trump! For PRESIDENT! Has the country gone MAD?? Are people really as venal and ignorant as we’ve always feared? Yes, this close election proves that America is frankly a country barely worth saving. Sad, I used to think we had an abundance of good people, but it appears as if we don’t.
They asked more republicans than democrats who they’re going to vote for? What else did you think the result would be?
Yeah, we’ve got a popular president, and ergo we’re gonna vote for the fucking loon who’s the total opposite of him
MAKES SENSE.
Ann “Alka” Selzer:
“We assumed a 2004 electorate.”
Well, that makes sense. Nothing’s changed in 12 years.
Google “Romney ahead” and see how many polls had him ahead of Obama in 2012. I don’t worry about these polls. I check fivethirtyeight and princeton’s election prediction site. Here’s an example of a poll done in October of the 2012 election that showed Romney ahead in several swing states(Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Mexico). Of those states Romney won one: North Carolina. The rest went to Obama.
I used to have a bastard of a time comprehending this kind of thing, but I finally got it through my head that those millions of people make voting decisions based on a degree of ignorant, shallow, and frivolous thinking we simply have a hard time comprehending as people who take an interest in this stuff. That’s on top of a huge Republican propaganda machine and a mainstream media whose habits and biases make them largely unable to fulfill in these times the institutional role that was conceived for them when the republic was created.
Ohio, Mississippi’s dumbass 1st couisin