I don’t completely agree. There’s some first-mover advantage, but there’s also the risk that you might be seen as desperate or over-eager or whatever (it’s not lost on me that these words might be used more to describe Elizabeth Warren than Joe Biden, even if their non-chromosomal qualifications were otherwise identical).
Right now, Biden has the luxury of sitting back and letting the lesser candidates quarrel, while he sits atop the polls by default. It projects strength (distinct in this case, I think, from privilege or inevitability), and in a very crowded primary, a successful projection of strength can become strength.
But the time for that game is now well past us. Whatever Biden is projecting now, it’s not strength. It’s insecurity and lack of commitment (whether those are actually the reasons for his waffling is sort of immaterial, that’s how it comes off).
For what it’s worth, I think that may be a more compelling message than you give credit for. As often as not (maybe more often?), the winner of our primary has been somebody who just kinda seems like they’ll be a competent hand, not a person who has put forth a litany of detailed policy proposals.
Full disclaimer: Biden is maybe fifth on my personal list, which I don’t think is very high.
I think Biden felt that by not announcing, he could avoid all serious scrutiny, but it is a very different matter when you have not announced and are still at (or near) the top of the polls. This tactic might work for a newcomer, but it will not work for someone with a long (and rather jumbled) history. I suspect that if/when he does announce, he will get a small bump up in the polls. (Some of his slipping support may be a response to his dragging this all out.) But there are still many months before the first primary, and plenty of time for more serious scrutiny, very little of which, I presume, will be helpful to him. (Some of the press may give him a bit of a pass in the primary, because they prefer a candidate who is not proposing any sweeping changes, but that won’t work as well in the general election, which is why you really want all of a candidates weaknesses to show up in the primary.)
And, of course, none of my suppositions will be relevant if he does announce late and manages to win the presidency after all. In accordance with my usual pledge, I will vote for him in the general election if he is our nominee.
Of course, once you find your keys, why would you keep looking? (Yes, I know that this is the common phrasing, but what we really mean is that if there are 12 places to look for the keys, you will find them in the 12th place.)
I thought the reason for his later launch was to wait for the release of the Mueller Report. My hope is that the reason for this delay is that he is taking his time to read the Mueller Report and to synthesize it into his campaign. He was in the US Senate for the last 2 impeachments. That careful deliberation would be a change from the way he was as a younger candidate and Senator where his mouth often ran faster than his brain.
If he were to come out for impeachment and speak from that breadth of experience and explain to people how this situation is worse than the last 2, then Uncle Joe would vault into my top 5 right away. I think he would take a dominant position over Bernie (who hurt himself in my view with his rather poor answer on the Mueller Report and impeachment) as well as the rest of the field. It’s the perfect political play for Joe if you think about it, but I don’t know if he has it in him. If he does, he’ll be the next President.
Fairly credible reporting (forgive me, please, for not having links at hand) has maintained that a number of potential (if not top-tier) candidates are considering getting into the race only if Biden does not. Whether or not you consider yourself a Biden supporter, I think it’s inarguable that the primary is currently moving at a different speed and a different direction than it would have if the guy on top of the polls had formally announced his candidacy.
Based on his equivocation about just announcing a run for president, when we all know he wants it (and has the resources to put an apparatus in place almost immediately), why would anyone think that he could/would take a hard stand on impeachment?
“worse” is a relative term. Our current circumstances are bad only to the degree there’s a consensus among the electorate and Congress they’re bad. Half of Congress thinks there is no cause for concern. Roughly half the electorate feels Trump is just dandy, or at minimum is not at all worked up about this and fretting the decline of Presidential ethics and morals.
Trump has so successfully lowered the bar for conduct, and so inured everyone to his utter depravity, he travels about in a cacoon of invulnerability.
Is “Dog bites man” really a story that runs on the 6 o’clock news?
