Discussion: Arizona & Georgia Appear Better 2020 Targets Than Iowa & Ohio, Says Top Dem Group

Two years is a lifetime away, especially if the economy starts to crater from the Ill-advised Republican tax cuts and also the drag from Trump’s tariffs. Certainly don’t waste resources on ruby red states, but I’d advise competing hard everywhere else.

We actually flipped seats in Texas and Oklahoma, so you never know.

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All the predicted good stuff on the horizon has even Mark (Appalachian Trail) Stanford concerned for the future of South Carolina

In June, after winning three straight elections to the House of Representatives from South Carolina, I lost my primary race to Katie Arrington, who in turn lost last week’s general election to Joe Cunningham, a Democrat. After the general election, Ms. Arrington immediately blamed me for her loss because I did not endorse her.

Republicans got a wake-up call last week. But will we wake up?

My party would be wise to take a step back from President Trump’s approach to politics. We should renew our commitment to tenets like environmental conservation and financial responsibility. We should run from the president’s zero-sum approach to politics.

As to an imagined “wake up call”, this senate gained Romney who’ll be the new Flake, condemning moron out loud but voting in tandem with him.

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A new furrowed brow!

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Condemning but neither in sorrow nor anger, just expediency.

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I wonder if Trump will soon appear to be what we know he is, a paper tiger.

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I think that this conclusion regarding Iowa needs to be reconsidered. 2/4 congressional seats flipped from GOP to Democrat this election. Now, the Iowa congressional delegation is 3 Democrats and Steve King.

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Sanford sounds like he could be quoting from the GOP’s 2012 Post Mortem. I expect his cries will be just as successful at turning the base around.

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If after 2020’s Senate elections the Rs find they’ve lost seats (20 R seats will be up for grabs), that might be enough, but I wouldn’t count on it. The Rs are dug in, they’ve determined they’re going to be the party of NO and remain opposed to any of the more progressive policies people in this country seem to want. There’s also the Russian PAC money a number of the R senators got in the past (and maybe will again in the future), Graham, Rubio, etc. It’s golden for them.

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This is excellent news for John McCaine’s corpse.

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Soon to be Senator Sinema had some very gracious things to say about McCain in her acceptance speech. That’s how you keep both sides happy.

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This isn’t an either/or scenario. All four states should be targets. In the Ohio Senate race Brown won by a much bigger margin than Sinema did in AZ. Governors races are far less predictive, but Republicans won by 3 or 4 points in IA and OH, not that much better than GA, while in AZ it was a blowout. OH and IA swung hard for Trump, but the midterms were more of a wash, as in addition to Brown winning OH by 6 points, the aggregate House vote in IA swung 13 points from 2016, resulting in 2 flips, leaving Republicans with just one seat.

Obama at least won OH and IA twice, no Dem has done better than 46% in GA since Carter in 1980, when Clinton won the state in '92 it was actually with less than that. Bill Clinton also won AZ in '96, with 46.5%, the best showing any Dem has had since Johnson. The narrowing of the gap in '16 was entirely due to Trump underperforming, HRC did about the same as Obama in the state.

I do think AZ is turning purple, but when you cut through the fog, it’s still no more a good bet than Ohio, at least until we see where the candidate is in 2020. GA may become the next NC, but all that means is a Democrat might win it by a whisper, but will probably come up short. Of the four Iowa is the best bet for a Dem victory, and it’s also posted the lowest Trump approvals of the four.

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If the economy goes South, the map may well grow to include unexpected battlegrounds like TX, MT, IN and MO

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The most important thing for Democrats to do is to pick a Presidential candidate who Democrats agree is worth voting for. If the Democrats don’t choose a candidate that inspires people to vote, the Republican wins by default. Any Republican will win if the Dems don’t love their candidate.

That’s a sad testimony to how flaky Democrats are, but it’s a truth we need to confront every four years: A bowl of fruit with an “R” in front of it will beat an uninspiring Democrat, even if that Democrat is competent and shows no signs of corruption. Hell, an incompetent and corrupt Republican will win every time if the Democrat isn’t inspiring enough. Nothing else matters really.

He’s right about that. Joe Cunningham, the Dem who won his old seat won on being anti-off shore oil drilling. He is an ocean engineer and an attorney.

See Joe win:

Victory speech is good to:

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Yeah, this!

Absolutely and especially since we seem to have slidden pretty bad in Florida.

Arizona and Georgia are rising.
They are two states with growing economies that are attracting urban/suburban college graduates.
Ohio and Iowa?
Meh.

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Romney’s an OLD Flake…

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Iowa just swapped two Rs for new Dems in Congress and nearly dislodged their oldest Republican tick, and nearly won the Governor’s office… someone needs to recalculate this headline’s mis-conclusion.

Iowa is as ripe for flipping as I’ve seen in 50 years, on every level.

ESPECIALLY THE WOMEN!

COUNT THE D’S!!!
Iowa elected a record number of women to the Legislature
Women elected to the Iowa House:
Megan Lee Hess Jones, R-Sioux Rapids
Ann Meyer, R-Fort Dodge
Mary Ann Hanusa, R-Council Bluffs
Ruth Ann Gaines, D-Des Moines
Marti Anderson, D-Des Moines
Heather Matson, D-Ankeny
Karin Derry, D-Johnston
Kristin Sunde, D-West Des Moines
Jennifer Konfrst, D-Windsor Heights
Jo Oldson, D-Des Moines
Beth Wessel-Kroeschell, D-Ames
Lisa Heddens, D-Ames
Jane Bloomingdale, R-Northwood
Sharon Steckman, D-Mason City
Linda Upmeyer, R-Clear Lake
Anne Osmundson, R-Volga
Shannon Lundgren, R-Peosta
Timi Brown-Powers, D-Waterloo
Sandy Salmon, R-Janesville
Liz Bennett, D-Cedar Rapids
Ashley Hinson, R-Marion
Molly Donahue, D-Cedar Rapids
Kirsten Running-Marquardt, D-Cedar Rapids
Tracy Ehlert, D-Cedar Rapids
Amy Nielsen, D-North Liberty
Holly Brink, R-Oskaloosa
Mary Gaskill, D-Ottumwa
Vicki Lensing, D-Iowa City
Mary Mascher, D-Iowa City
Monica Kurth, D-Davenport
Cindy Winckler, D-Davenport
Phyllis Thede, D-Bettendorf
Mary Wolfe, D-Clinton
Lindsay James, D-Dubuque
Women elected to the Iowa Senate
Jackie Smith, D-Sioux City
Claire Celsi, D-West Des Moines
Annette Sweeney, R-Alden
Carrie Koelker, R-Dyersville
Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Ottumwa
Chris Cournoyer, R-Le Claire
Amanda Ragan, D-Mason City
Janet Petersen, D-Des Moines
Liz Mathis, D-Hiawatha
Pam Jochum, D-Dubuque
Amy Sinclair, R-Allerton

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