It looks like they are creating the conditions where ISIS can get a foothold and ISIS has a score to settle with Iran. Of course, Trump is running his big mouth and making it worse.
They way the Iranian citizen’s are reacting, it’s almost like Donnie is President of Iran, too…
This is what happens when the leadership of a country is corrupt, authoritarian, and far more conservative than most of its population, including and especially its young people.
Huh.
Yes, the list of similarities is a long one.
ISIS is a radical Sunni group, but Iran is 90-95% Shia, and 5-10% Sunni. In Iraq, Sunnis are 30% of the population but they had most of the political power in Iraq under Sadaam Hussein, and want it back.
But, needless to say, an radical group that is Sunni and against Shia (ie ISIS) is not going to gain much traction in Iran, where 90-95% of the country is Shia.
I always look at the population pyramids in cases like these. Because Iran had such a high birth rate in the past, the number of people entering the workforce way overwhelms those retiring. For example, the 65-69 age cohort (those one presumes are retiring) is around 2M, but the age 25-29 cohort (presumably entering the workforce) is around 10 M people. Age 20-24 is around 8 Million.
If you assume only men work, then Iran needs to create 4 million more jobs for the 25-29 cohort over the retiring 65-69 cohort. The next cohort has 1.5M 60-65 year old men retiring and 4 million 20-25 year old men entering the workforce.
This kind of thing is happening all over the Islamic world. The same pattern prevailed in Tunisia and Egypt, triggering the Arab Spring.
Iran may have some hope, given that sanctions battered their economy, but at a fundamental level, they have a problem that was caused 20-25 years ago.