With just two days to go before the New Hampshire primary, Democratic candidates ramped up their appearances on Sunday morning news programs.
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1290195
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1290195
Warren placed THIRD, not fourth, in the Iowa caucuses. Please correct your article.
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I sure don’t know what Warren’s chances are, but I also don’t hold with this “nobody has ever done x without having done y” thing. Nobody has ever done anything until it’s done the first time. Nobody with zero experience in government or the military had ever become president until somebody did it, to name a recent example.
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Warren placed third.
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Warren is unfazed by placing fourth in Iowa caucuses
Et tu, TPM?
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While I expect outlets like ABC etc to count the caucus reulsts as they did, with
1st place: Dude
2nd Place: Another Dude
4th Place: Yet Another Dude
And to forget that the number “3” exists at all when it is captured by a not-Dude. But I do expect more from TPM.
Can you please correct the header to reflect the reality of the results?:
1st/2nd Place: Buttigieg
1st/2nd Place: Sanders3rd Place: Warren
4th Place: Biden
5th Place: Klobuchar
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The “socialist” label is a tough nut for Sanders to crack. We all know what nonsense it is - there isn’t a truly socialist candidate in the field. Even on the nutty fringe it’s tough to find a true socialist, i.e., someone who thinks the means of production should be in government’s hands, or in the hands of the workers. But it frightens the horses.
Whenever someone says that they’re scared by “socialism” of the Sanders variety, ask them if they’re ready to abolish Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, publicly-funded schools, publicly-funded highways, a publicly-funded air traffic control system, the FDA, the EPA, all farm subsidies, etc., etc. Those are all “socialist” as the term is being used these days. They’re all things that my taxes are supporting, even though I may not use them myself.
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Why does the media immediately accept “facts” about women that are wrong without even checking them? Warren came in third in Iowa. She probably will do a lot better than Sanders if she goes the long distance. Sanders is a bigger target.
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Just ask them if they know what Democrats like FDR and LBJ did for the working man/women, retirees, healthcare and education. Always turn back the labels with proven policies. It stops Republicans in their tracks.
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Apparently, the week end crew is working the headlines.
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Perfect. You have no idea—or maybe you do—how many people find amusing remarks like that among the things that make life worth living. 
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Thank you @twelve.
@ Summer Concepcion Please correct that error.
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Socialism…
Trump: “Our great American companies are hereby ordered…”
Barr: “concerns could be met by the United States aligning itself with Nokia and/or Ericsson through American ownership of a controlling stake”
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Bill Clinton was actually third in Iowa in 92, so Warren still has a shot I guess. That said, it looks as though it will be between Sanders and Buttigieg, but we’ll see. New Hampshire is often full of surprises. Let’s hope the surprises are nothing like the ones Iowa gave us this year.
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What they’re saying now is exactly the same bullshit arguments they used to oppose Medicare, Social Security, etc. Republicans hated those programs when they were enacted, they hate them now (even though they have to pretend not to), and they will undermine them at every opportunity.
Reagan warns that if his listeners do not stop the proposed medical program, “behind it will come other government programs that will invade every area of freedom as we have known it in this country until one day as Norman Thomas said we will wake to find that we have socialism.” Under this scenario, Reagan says, “We are going to spend our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children, what it once was like in America when men were free.”
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Very interesting things in the NH polling over the past week. There are literally 19 data points since Feb 2nd. A few observations:
Pete has essentially flipped places with Biden, and might be a better fit to beat Bernie in this particular state because his share of age demos is consistent across the board. In fact, he appears to be gaining on Bernie among the younger demos.
Here’s the lay of the land:
Since Feb 2, the average of all polls is: Bernie 26.4%, Pete 20.9%, Biden 13.3%, Warren 12.7%, Amy K 8.5%.
Since Feb 4, (day after IA), the polls say Sanders 27.1%, Pete 21.5%, Biden 12.9%, Warren 12.7%, Amy K 8.42%.
However, there are two sets of polls: tracking polls (CNN/UNH, Emerson, Suffolk), and standard polls. Two of the tracking polls have age demo breakdowns that are quite Bernie favorable, where the 18-34 vote is 26%-27% of the electorate (if that were ever the case in the US, the GOP wouldn’t win another election for at least a decade or two).
The trackers love Bernie, like Pete and hate Biden and Warren. Here’s the average of non-tracking polls since Feb 4: Bernie 25.9%, Pete 22.4%, Biden 15%, Warren 14.71%.
Basically, the trackers make all the difference for Biden/Warren being able to meet the delegate threshold.
The polls over the last few days tell us that Bernie is steady in the mid 20s but isn’t growing. Pete keeps gaining. He’s gaining among young voters and that could spell trouble for Bernie. Bernie’s bigger margins come in polls where the young vote is a higher share of the electorate.
Biden and Warren may have stabilized their numbers. A few days ago, I thought it was quite possible that it would be a close race between Bernie and Pete. Now, I think it’s possible we could have 4 candidates getting delegates and a number of candidates all bunched up within 8-10 points.
There’s been a lot of buzz about Amy Klobuchar, but the polling averages don’t show a big boost coming for her yet. In fact, they show her in the 8-10 point range. That finish won’t allow her to qualify for delegates. If she does get a boost, it will help Bernie secure a win in IA because she will take votes from Pete, Liz and Joe.
In short, NH might end up elevating a top 4 and cutting Amy out. That would be a pretty good result for Biden, because the sooner he can clear the center left side of the field, the better for him.
An ideal finish for Biden is to get to 16%, get delegates and have Pete beat Bernie in NH. Getting delegates and a delegate draw at the top also works. Warren also needs to get delegates and have Bernie lose to Pete. If Warren has a ground game, she has to put it into high gear now. Bernie losing the first 2 contests could give Warren life.
If Pete doesn’t beat Bernie, I think his road looks a little tough from the standpoint of winning, but looks ok from the standpoint of getting some delegates and being a thorn in Bernie’s side (as well as Warren’s) through Super Tuesday. I think he’ll be viable in NV and will probably hurt Bernie there, but he will get clobbered in many of the southern Super Tuesday states but get delegates in other states.
(As an aside and rant, white voters in IA/NH are complete idiots for choosing Pete over Biden. The idea that the top 2 candidates out of IA/NH will be the two least electable national candidates, a 78 year old socialist, and a 38 year old gay mayor of a podunk town with no experience to run the federal gov’t or be the head of state, just makes one’s head shake. POC voters will have their say, and they’ll let us all know what they think).
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This morning, when Joy Reid asked Sanders’ spokesman how the campaign would answer the inevitable ads showing Bernie praising Fidel Castro, the spokesman’s answer was, in effect–’ Trump lies about everyone.’
But those photos/statements are REAL. Seriously, Sanders needs to be better prepared for the onslaught of Comrade Bernie ads. There’s a lot of raw material out there. I think they’re a little too caught up in their own campaign narrative and need to start explaining and defusing that stuff now.
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Biden isn’t going to finish in the top two in NH. Finishing 3rd would be a mild surprise. Getting delegates is his challenge. All that said, I think he has done some important things in the last few days in NH to set up the next contests:
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He has been authoritative, engaged, available and is goin’ for it in the debates and on the stump. He has the passion. His debate performance was ignored by the media but it stabilized his support with moderate whites and POC outside of these first two contests. The Vindman reference was one of the top moments of the debate and was an example of his imprinting his personality, appealing to values while arguing a substantive point. He is capable of such moments despite the clunky delivery.
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He has been lobbing the socialist grenade at Bernie but he has connected it with perhaps the most effective argument to choose him over Bernie: Bernie will kill the Dems down ballot. It’s too much of a burden to ask Dems in purple states to have to explain whether they are socialists or not. Biden doesn’t provide that baggage. He is aligned with the agenda of the House Dems, which is the same agenda that the Senate Dem candidates will run on. That sets up what Biden will say in states that are more favorable for Biden. Socialism will also be a wedge issue to use to win the Latinx vote decisively.
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He has framed Buttigieg as woefully inexperienced for the job. His ad was terrific. Buttigieg has responded by referencing outsiderism and small town values. That’s good for NH. It won’t work elsewhere. This is a different time and a CiC has to be ready on Day 1. Biden wins that argument.
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I can’t believe all the dumping on Buttigieg for his “lack of experience.” What the hell do we have in the WH right NOW?! What experience did 45 ever have except bankruptcy and strong-arming?!
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Yes, TPM: Warren did not finish fourth in Iowa!!! That was Biden, who of course got more coverage for finishing fourth than Warren did for finishing third (even though it’s typically been said there are three tickets out of Iowa!). Lately it seems even Klobuchar, who finished fifth in the state immediately next door to her own, is being pushed by much of the media over Warren, who has infrastructure in dozens of states and over a million small donors! Warren’s campaign is ready for the long haul, so please don’t try to write her off prematurely.
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