Your intermittent briefing on how negotiations over the reconciliation bill are going. This week, Congress is in recess.
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1394031
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1394031
Nope. Next question.
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If Dems bail on BBB they risk the ire of progressives who will definitely sit out 2022.
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- The Congressional Budget Office says that scoring for pieces of the reconciliation bill will be available as soon as this week. Depending on the numbers, this could give moderates a reason to cause trouble.
Of course, this was always a bullshit argument. Congresscritters ignore the CBO whenever it’s convenient (like the Infrastructure bill). Also, the CBO can end up saying whatever you want it to say. I remember somewhere in the austerity-mania of Obama’s term, the GOP was using unfavorable CBO ratings to try to get leverage over bills, but the CBO was just scoring exactly what they were being asked to score, nothing more, nothing less, which in that case was not everything contained in the bills, just the bits that made it look bad. It’s not exactly what I’m looking for, but this Slate article about the ACA talks about the gimmicks politicians use in general to get the results they want.
Ultimately, the CBO shouldn’t be the end-all and the be-all, just one more datapoint to use when making a final decision.
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Is paid maternity (and paternity) leave, even a few weeks, back in? If so, it would seem it would take the CBO several generations to score. It took Finland slightly over 70 years to figure out what a bargain expanded maternity is for the economy as the impacts affect child health, education right through university, right on into old age. Seems like, because of Joe Manchin (?), this standard feature of advanced economies doesn’t merit discussion, and certainly doesn’t belong in the reconciliation bill. It would seem that a guy with the word “Man” in his surname would at least be able to talk about the needs of new parents and new humans.
Finland offers a very long parental leave to its employees, where starting in 2021, both parents are entitled to parental leave of 164 days each. Parents will be able to transfer 69 days from their own quota to the other parent. The parental allowance will be paid until the child is 13 weeks old. Single parents will have the right to use the parental allowance of both parents.**
**Out of these, 26 weeks are paid out of 70% of the employee’s salary. For the remaining weeks, employees are given a flat rate. Despite these generous leave allowances, fathers in Finland do not use their allotment, reflecting a still stubborn gender imbalance in the country.
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Moody’s has said that BBB will SAVE the US government money; whereas they scored the BIF as costing us $400 billion more than is paid for in the bill. So the “moderates” will have no leg to stand on to oppose.
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I would say you are aspirationally accurate, but it’s probably more aligned with reality to say “should.”
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A nice, level-headed look at where we are now. I’m remaining optimistic about the BBB. Biden tends to deliver.
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Don’t forget the senate considering a carve out for Voting Rights…maybe not this year…
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Disappointed the House D’s gave up their leverage, because Manchinema have given us no reason to trust either of them.
Sucks to have to depend on assholes.
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So, instead of voting for someone who isn’t actively trying to destroy the country, they’ll sit on their hands and effectively give their vote to the nihilistic arsonists? Just to save their fee-fees?
The Dems are by no stretch of the imagination perfect, and I don’t agree with every (or even most) of their policies, but actually having policies and trying to govern is a damn site better than gleefully setting fire to the world while grifting as much cash as humanly possible.
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Can The Reconciliation Bill Survive On Its Own?
Can we? No. We can’t.
Progressives have two choices:
1 Show up in larger numbers than they did in 2020, elect a real majority, and make Sinemanchin irrelevant
2. Sit out the election, let the GOP attain the majority and destroy our democracy, environment, and economy.
It seems you are arguing that progressives should and will take option 2. Am I interpreting your point correctly?
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If Democrats can learn any lesson from Virginia it’s to BE BOLD and GET SHIT DONE. If Sinemanchin want to torpedo it, then Schumer needs to grow a pair & take away their committee assignments.
Also – take everything that Sinemanchin don’t like and attach it to the Defense Bill…
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And what does Schumer do when McConnell offers Sinemanchin to restore those committee assignments after they vote for a new majority leader?
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This suggestion seems far more workable than stripping S&M of their committees (much as I would like the intransigent bastards to pay a price for their little games)
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Does the CBO score such bills using only first order revenue expectations based on known tax rates and projecting current economic activity forward, or does it also include projected increased revenue based on the expected economic boost that a given bill is supposed to give the economy, both through direct cash injection and through the opportunities it will enable in the future? Or is that too hard to project and too iffy to be reliable enough to include in the scoring?
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Hoped for like a real Trumpie spreading the meme?
Voters need to work for and vote for the left most candidate with a prospect of getting elected. Sometimes that is Bernie and sometimes it’s a Blue Dog.
Sitting out an election means that the Reds need one less vote than they would otherwise. Stupid move.
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According to the Slate article I linked earlier, at least back in 2010 during the ACA markup, the CBO scores everything based on the current status quo (even if the status quo is known to be changing in the near future). So they don’t really seem to do nuance too much.
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That’s why Sweden has added more “use it or lose it” provisions to encourage daddy to pick up more of the load.
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