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This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1306632
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1306632
For anyone interested in keeping count, that brings us to 30 million jobs lost during the COVID-19 crisis with a U3 unemployment rate at 15%.
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So much winning! And I, for one, am getting tired of all the winning.
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Donât worry â summer is on its way and with the warm weather and sun the virus will just go âpoofâ and everything will go right back to where it was before!
Sez Moron-in-Chief.
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Checking around - seems the highest rate during the Great Depression was near 25%. But statistical metric tracking has evolved since then.
It was around 10% during the âGreat Recessionâ - which weâve exceeded.
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At the household level, the unemployment rate isnât 15pct or 20pct. Itâs more like 50pct or 100pct, repeated over and over and overâŚ
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Iâm wondering if this includes all that have lost their jobs. I know itâs entirely anecdotal, but my son in law, who was gainfully unemployed as of last Friday, is still on payroll until 15 May. He canât file until next month. So he and others like him (heâs a little higher on the food chain, job description-wise) are not in these numbers yet.
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I took the extra measure of including the category U-3 when listing the unemployment rate. U-3 is a simplified measure. It fits easily in headlines and 7-second blurbs on radio and TV.
The more accurate measure is the U-6 unemployment rate. U-6 includes more categories of unemployment like those who are underemployed and others who have exhausted benefits and have fallen off the unemployment charts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has not updated the new numbers. U-6 tends to track at nearly double the U-3 rate.
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Can you give a tutorial on the difference between the two? This sounds interesting!
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As I mentioned, the statistical metrics have changed since the Great Depression record keeping. But yeah, weâve blown past the âGreat Recessionâ rate with comparable metrics.
Long ago - the government stopped counting folks who âstopped lookingâ for work - which is included in the Great Depression numbers. I expect itâs closer to 20% as we type.
ETA - Yup @yellowbeard just explained it. They âbreak outâ the different types of unemployment. It makes the economy look much better. And have been doing it for decades.
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See my recent post. BLS data is available here.
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So as long as they report consistently, itâs not a problem.
Itâs kinda like the pandemic numbers - because the data gathering is so non-standard, itâs contributing to the lack of confidence and the insistence for re-opening too soon.
The UE numbers have always been thus, so itâs less of a problem of consistency than it is of the work force is screwed.
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Seems to me that one of the reasons weâve blown past the Great Recession rate is due to the fact that so many small businesses and their supply chains have been hit. They provide the bedrock of employment in this country contrary to the belief of Rethugs
ETA: I havenât been following this closely but Iâm also not sure how this applies to those in the âgigâ economy. Not clear if those folks are eligible for UI.
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The tragedy continues unabated. Between the GDP declines and unemployment numbers like these, how anyone can believe this presidential election could go for Mr. Trump again is beyond me. If the occupant of the WH was a Democrat, he/she wouldnât have a chance.
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Comparing Great Recession statistics with the present statistics are accurate. Comparing them with Great Depression are problematic
At the most fundamental level, we have a clearer picture of the economy itself than existed in the 1930s.
âIn that era employment and unemployment statistics werenât compiled in real time. Unemployment rates for the 1930s, for example, were reconstructed by economists â in the 1960s and 1970s, amid disagreements over whether workers on New Deal work relief programs should be counted as employed or unemployed.â
But yeah - weâre screwed.
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UE is also a coincidental/lagging indicator of economic health. The damage done to labor markets is swift and severe. The speed at which the damage has done can be compared to a kind of economic whiplash.
Typically we will see leading indicators that issue a warning of impending layoffs, things like housing starts, business investment, and bond market investment. Durable goods orders are also pretty reliable in forecasting economic conditions. Coincidentally, the cardboard box index rates highly for its reliable forecasts.
This UE report is like a meteor strike.
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Copied this from WaPo. Donât know if it was behind the paywall, but it provides a bit more information.
More than 3.8 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week, according to the Labor Department, as the coronavirus pandemicâs economic toll burrowed deeper into the American workforce.
The outbreak and subsequent recession have wiped away all jobs created since the 2008 financial crisis. Economists estimate the national unemployment rate sits between 15 and 20 percent, compared to about 25 percent at the peak of the Great Depression.
For comparison, 4.4 million people applied for benefits for the week ending April 18., and 30.3 million have sought benefits in the past six weeks alone. That figure represents roughly 1 in 5 American workers.
There is no precedent for figures like this in modern American history.
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Some definitions to categorize a person as âemployedâ have been loosened in the CARES Act to allow the receipt of UE benefits.
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If nothing changes eventually these families are going to end up homeless as well as unemployed. I doubt they will quietly lay down and die. I believe we will see food and housing riots if nothing is done. The CARES Act, while admirable so far, does not help when the states themselves fail with regards to unemployment. See Florida for a prime example.
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and it all has happened in ONLY TWO MONTHS.
The Great Depression took over TWO YEARS to get to this level of Unemployment.
Great Job Donnie!
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