Biden Camp Says ‘Even The Best Polling Can Be Wrong’ In Call To Deepen Lead | Talking Points Memo

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign is urging supporters not to let down their guard in the final stretch of the presidential race suggesting in a memo that “even the best polling can be wrong.”

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at

" Biden Camp Says ‘Even The Best Polling Can Be Wrong’ In Call To Deepen Lead"

Yep !


Every runner knows it, and even then some forget, so every reminder helps:

Don’t run to the finish line – run through it!


Don’t rest on your laurels!! Get out there and vote!! The strongest showing will send the strongest, positive message!!!


National polls may be comforting, but they are essentially irrelevant. We know from history that a candidate can win the national (popular) vote by millions of votes, but her opponent can still manage to eke out a win in the electoral college. The overall national vote is interesting, but does not determine who wins the election. Until the electoral college is eliminated or bypassed, victory will go to the candidate who can carry a handful of “battleground states”. It shouldn’t be this way, but it is.


Joe is warning us to not let our guard down. Keep vigilant because Bannon and his bullies are going to throw more slime at Joe.


Remember, Putin lives.


A certain level of anxiety is a good thing but it can be a distraction too – Biden is comfortably above 2016 state-by-state levels and Trump’s campaign appears to be disintegrating – but the Senate and other down-ballot races at the state level remain critical. Damaged though it may be this is none-the-less a census year and it is not only critical to win back the Senate and hold the House, it is critical to gain enough power at the state level to control the reapportionment process that will condition political realities for the next decade.

ETA: acknowledged, as Paul Krugman points out, a path for Trump victory remains:

There were 5 ways Trump could have turned this around
  1. Covid fading away
  2. Huge economic boom
  3. Biden coming across as senile
  4. Fake scandal
  5. Vote suppression
Only 5 is left. Going to be ugly

That x10,000.


I already voted in Indiana absentee ballot. Doesn’t really matter as this state with it’s rural voters is going for Trump. But I mailed the ballot in at a local post office on Sept 29th. I went to the Indiana Voter Portal. Put in my info and it shows my absentee ballot was received on Oct 1st by the Indiana Voting commission. So if you just get off your azz and vote early no issues…

BTW still amazes me how this mask mandate is creating craziness by GOP supporters. My theory is they are just pissed off about the Covid 19 Virus. How to them it ruined all the GOP’s politico chances. No Covid 19 maybe Trump wins etc… So rather than dealing with the virus. These Republican’s have reacted with this bizarre attitude.


It can’t be said often enough. The battleground or swing states where the election is decided are called that precisely because votes there tend to be close enough that most years it could go either way. Polls will count a thousand people or so. When the only poll that counts has a sample space of well over 200 million, things can change. Let’s keep doing what we can and if possible get your vote in the mail by the 20th. If you have a faster way then obviously.

  • Campaign with a winning attitude, not a whiny, hand-wringing Michael Moore-style “Oh we’re gonna lose!”;

  • But campaign like we are two points behind. This is especially true in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida, where even three points ahead can be stolen. Anything less than a convincing win can be stolen.


This is exactly the right attitude for the Biden campaign to have…in 2016 a lot of people decided Clinton had it in the bag and didn’t vote for her. But, the reality is that things really are different this time, Biden really does have a solid lead, and he is in a far better position. Plus, the polling issues are better understood…with the huge early turnout I’m wondering if the polling is going to end up under sampling Democrats, people are spending hours in line to vote on the first day and that’s just never happened before. The Trump campaign is throwing everything that they can against the wall and none of it is working…we’ll see what their cheating does on election day, but the Democrat’s voting early may avoid a lot of that problem.

We can hope the enthusiasm really is that high, and that Biden is banking enough votes to win it going away. People shouldn’t be depending on that though, they need to go out and vote down every Republican they can and give the Democrats a strong win with breathing room to govern. We really can’t leave the Republicans in a position where they can block everything for two years, because they will if they can, and hurt a lot of people, simply to try to get power back in 2022. Our nation really depends on the Democrats getting as much as they can this time around, and everyone should vote like the nation’s future depends on it.

  1. Remember how you felt that night, the next morning. Living in Madison, I traveled to the airport early in the morning on the day after the election. I swear, everyone in the airport, including me, was crying.

My stomach hurt for a week, I was so upset. The only thing that helped was the shocked early reaction, the will to resistance, and the march I went on in support of our Mexican neighbors that brought people out of stores clapping for us.

Anyway, one question in the mix is whether this kind of—uh, stuff—can work:


these races usually end up, to close to call or it’s pretty much a toss up when we get into the last week.
according to the MSM


Some people believe what they want to believe. We’re after two things: the lazy nonvoter and the cranky third party voter who had a thing about Hillary and the voters who thought they’d give the businessman a chance. I doubt they would believe such stuff but ignored it and did what they did anyway. Several of them are my cousins and they are done with Trump.

And I could barely function for a long time. I literally did not watch tv news for six months which was craziness from an admitted news junkie. I kept up on things other ways but could not bear to look at or listen to him or his apologists. I agree that a couple of marches helped because it felt so positive.


This is exactly what any competent campaign should be saying at this point. Remember Hillary Clinton.


Campaign managers like Jennifer O’Malley Dillon are paid to worry. When people finally understand how profoundly trumPP has turned off women, esp. those who thought “What’s the worst that could happen if I vote for a businessman?”, it’ll give you hope that women are leading the opposition to the Misogynist In Chief. They’re tired of explaining to their daughters what the vile things he says about women mean.



I’ll never forget it. I was in Amsterdam to run a training class for my company. Riding the light rail to the office that morning, everyone was checking the news as the overnight results from the States came in, wearing these “what the Hell just happened across the Atlantic” looks on their faces. By the time I got to my class, the last bits of suspense were over. I tried to make a joke in the training room about needing to check up on Dutch political asylum laws. Nobody laughed.