Opponents of Amendment One, a proposed change to North Carolina’s state constitution that would only ensure legal recognition for marriage between a man and a woman, have long contended that as voters learn more about the measure support for it will drop. There is now mounting evidence to corroborate that claim, so much so that the amendment may be facing an improbable defeat.Over the last month, there have been indications that the tide is turning — typified by both a groundswell of opposition toward the amendment and a confluence of events that have stymied its support. The latest proof that the race is tightening came earlier this week, when the Democratic-leaning and Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling (PPP) released the results of a survey showing that 54 percent of likely voters intend to vote for Amendment One, while 40 percent are opposed. That’s still a strong majority to be sure, but it also represents the lowest level of support that PPP has found for Amendment One since it began polling last October. Perhaps most promising for opponents is the shift in opinion among North Carolina Democrats, who were were divided over the issue in PPP’s survey a month ago. The latest poll shows only 38 percent of Democratic voters support the amendment, with 56 percent opposed. Additionally, support among African-American voters — an historically socially conservative voting bloc — has dropped by ten percent over the last month.
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=99383