5 Points On Why The Latest COVID Crisis Is So Bad, And Why It’s Poised To Get Much Worse | Talking Points Memo

Here in Germany we have had, thanks to having a scientist in charge of the country, a comparatively low level of covid infections and deaths compared to our neighbors in Europe and, of course, way way below the rates in the US. (We’ve 1/4 the population of the US and the total number of Covid deaths just recently crossed the 10,000 mark.)

I don’t have to worry about the supermarkets or shops – never ever see anyone without a mask, period. The guys delivering for Amazon and DHL wear masks and stay about 3 steps down on the stoop handing stuff over. There are also some folks who are protesting like in the US, but that’s minimal. Of course we are tired of it all but we keep on.

So, as soon as the weather starting getting cooler, the numbers started going up. On 2 November we started “lockdown lite” for 4 weeks in which some further restrictions were imposed (my husband’s yoga group, which had been reduced to a max of 8 people rather than 20, in a large well-ventilated room, has stopped until the end of November). Smaller shops have to be careful to limit the number of customers at one time and private gatherings are limited to 10 people from max 2 households, with pretty heavy fines instituted for ignoring this.

This was all done now with the hopes that they could “save” Christmas for families this year. But in spite of all this, the numbers are worrisome. They are still warning of not achieving the flattening hoped for and the lockdown lite may be extended.

BUT: here’s the frightening thing. Last spring, Merkel and her advisors had rearranged resources in anticipation of the pandemic getting bad, and did it so well, that the capacity was never maxed out and in fact were able to take in quite a number of covid patients from Italy and France and other neighboring countries.

Yesterday I watched a thing on German TV in which they interviewed a doctor at a major hospital in Berlin. He said that in their hospital there are two lung wards. In the spring, they only ever filled up the one ward, but this time around they are almost at capacity on both. In other words, what’s happening this time around is that more people are needing hospitalization. And they are concerned about capacity for the first time in this pandemic. And we are only at the beginning of the winter season, so who knows how bad it will get.

(We are very happy that our daughter who is a physician at a hospital in Berlin is still at home on maternity leave rather than at the hospital…)

And, again, this is happening even where 95% of the people are following the rules.

(BTW, they suspect that small private gatherings where people feel “safer” because it’s friends and family instead of strangers are responsible for the upswing…especially because these gatherings are happening at home rather than in public places.)

@alanonguitar

ETA: Just read an article in which a the head of the Robert Koch Institute (Germany’s equivalent to Johns Hopkins) Lothar Wieler said “Wir müssen noch ein paar Monate die Pobacken zusammenkneifen”, which basically translates into “we’re gonna have to continue to squeeze our butt-cheeks together for another few months…” :joy:

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In 2016.

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Canada?

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There is a lipoprotein nasal spray that blocks the virus for 24 hours that has been tested on animals but no human testing so far.

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That is going to be a big problem. They will need to put in monitors to insure that the vaccine has not been ruined. There are areas of the world and rural areas in the US where they don’t have the resources to deal with the handling issues.

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I used to be an avid golfer and even more avid golf watcher - then I started hearing a lot of pro-Republican comments from a lot of these guys right after Obama was elected, most of them woefully ignorant and obviously the product of people who watch too much FOX. Then in 2009, one of my favorite commentators, David Feherty, said this:

“From my own experience visiting the troops in the Middle East, I can tell you this, though: despite how the conflict has been portrayed by our glorious media, if you gave any U.S. soldier a gun with two bullets in it, and he found himself in an elevator with Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Osama bin Laden, there’s a good chance that Nancy Pelosi would get shot twice, and Harry Reid and bin Laden would be strangled to death.”

Guys like him, Johnny Miller and Jack ruined golf for me as a spectator sport. I know it is probably immature of me, but when I look at a golf tournament now all I see are a bunch of spoiled country club conservatives who are probably the least qualified humans in the country to comment on political issues that may be life and death to people who have never been able to afford to play a round of golf in their entire lives.

If you haven’t read Commander in Cheat by Rick Reilly, it is a must for anyone who knows and understands golf. You don’t need to play golf to read and enjoy it, but if you do, it adds a layer of understanding. Because golf, like the government, is hugely based on the honor system, and the participation in either one by a serial lying sociopath like Trump results in complete disaster and a mockery of what is supposed to be happening.

Fuck Jack Nicklaus - he is a bigoted, pretentious piece of shit.

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You know, for an attorney, you are a good creative writer too. LOL

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Granted, I haven’t read this entire thread, but I haven’t seen anyone in the media using the available data to explain how bad this is really getting. The mortality rate lags the infection rate by about a month and is roughly 2% of the infection rate, so what we can say with some degree of certainty is that the death rate in mid-December will be around 3,000 people every day. Looking at the infection rate trending to 200K per day by the end of this month puts the death rate at 4,000 people a day at the end of the year, and that’s assuming that we have a limitless capacity to treat the infected, so it’s a conservative estimate.

By the time Donald Trump leaves office, over 400,000 people will have died in the United States, with or without a vaccine available… Yeah, I’d say it’s poised to get much worse.

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I suspect you didn’t mean this to come out as typed, but let me offer a few thoughts.

  1. A nasal spray is essentially how infections are “administered” as it is. It starts in the upper respiratory tract usually, in the nose/sinuses. Mind you the viral load is introduced over minutes and hours vs in a second, so it’s not exactly the same. But the vaccine is introduced the same way the disease is.

  2. Now if we’re are talking about administering vaccination, nasal spray has been scientifically proven to be effective for some vaccines.
    It has the advantage of not requiring NEEDLES that have to be sanitary before and during use and then safely disposed(maybe disinfected and reused, but that’s risky).
    Those same needles turn some people off of getting vaccinated where they would otherwise do it.
    Injecting something into a human body is inherently risky, hence the sanitary concerns so something other than just the vaccine isn’t introduced.
    IIRC, many spray vaccines are stabler than injectables and don’t have as strict storage requirements such as cold temps. But take longer to develop.
    Mind you, if you have an injectable vaccine and no spray available, being picky may be a bad idea.

Alas. I can identify - the loss last fall of both family members that have traditionally hosted Christmas gatherings has left a huge void.
But we have already written it off for this year too. May be Independence Day if we’re lucky, fingers crossed for next year.

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I read your comment. To me golf is just golf. Gotta go watch the Masters. Take care.

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The Masters was always my favorite, and I still like to play - and Jack Nicklaus is still a privileged asshole.

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Well, to be fair, his neighbor DID punch him in the face. So there’s that…:thinking: Wish I could take a turn at THAT Piñata! :face_with_raised_eyebrow::smiling_imp:

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Very well said. And very sad. :confused:

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Thank you for the update from Germany, its so awesome that some of you Hivers are overseas. Its just really great to hear from you all so we get a different perspective.

As for the German example, wow. It is scary that those wards are already maxed out in a country that has followed strict rules and has been disciplined about Covid precautions. My god, we are fucked here. It boggles the imagination to think how bad its gonna get. I’m kinda thinking people dying in the streets…cuz hospitals are full. Just think about how many refrigerated morgue trucks are already being utilized.

Especially where Republicans are in charge and they still refuse to do the simplest things that could help the most (i.e. wear the damn mask). Just incredible. :face_with_raised_eyebrow:

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Part and parcel of the Trump ‘legacy’, inflict the deepest damage imaginable to wound the incoming administration and keep his base of ratfuckers excited. Really, beyond the obvious hard work of fighting our way out of this, the real solution is prison for Trump, his children and various enablers.

I wish you were, but you’re not.

Herd Immunity = 2.5 Million Dead, a destroyed economy, and the END of the United States of America as States, and even Individual Municipalities go to a “Every Man for Himself” stance.
Chaos, Anarchy, Blood in the Streets.

That is absolute insanity.

China doesn’t want it (We are their largest trading partner)
The EU doesn’t want it (same)
The 3rd World doesn’t want it.

Only Vladimir Putin could wish for such a thing for the USA, and even then it is INSANITY to have that be the policy of the United States Government.

We are in the grips of DEATH CULT, where WE ALL DIE a la Jonestown.

Alaska going ballistic:

Border was closed last I checked. They don’t want us there right now. Can you blame them?

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