GENEVA — The head of the World Health Organization says the coronavirus outbreak is accelerating but insists “we can change the trajectory of this pandemic.”
No shit. It’s a virus. 1 gives it to another. Now two have it. 2 give it to 2 more. Now 4 have it. 4 give it to 4 more. Now 8 have it. It grows by doubling.
That’s the reason for isolating yourself or “social distancing”. So 1 does not give it to another. There is no 2. It’s also the reason for banning large gatherings. So 1 does not give it to 20.
First thing that needs to happen after this is resolved is give every American remedial math classes on how exponential work.
It’s been insane hearing people talk about how certain parts of the country are ok because they only have 10 cases, which a week later become 1000 and they are all shocked.
“He said it was 67 days from the first reported case to reach the first 100,000 cases; 11 days for the second 100,000 cases and just four days for the third 100,000 cases.”
I keep wondering, after coming up with little in searches – what are people making masks from? Surgical-style ones seem fairly straightforward, but are people making filtering masks at home as well?
Most of the modeling on this that I’ve seen assumes a very low per victim infection rate (e.g. “he gave to two people, who each gave to two people”), in fact a single person might infect multiple, which means it grows even faster.
Consider the game “Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon”, in which you pick a randon actor and figure out how many steps you need to find a path to someone who worked on a film with Kevin Bacon. If you assume 10 named actors per movie, after four iterations you have a number multiple times larger than the population of the planet. The average Bacon number for most actors is two or three, the largest found to date is only seven.
We’re a lot more interconnected than most people realize…
Meanwhile Trump refuses to order the production of needed medical supplies, some of which are being sold at inflated prices after being produced. He doesn’t want ‘socialism’ to invade the market, but he’s perfectly happy to let profiteering go on. At the same time he continually undermines the whole concept of social distancing by suggesting he may pull back from it to save the economy and showing up at press briefings crowded on a stage with several other people, shoulder to shoulder. And he offers to give testing kits away because he really doesn’t want anyone to know how many are infected in the US.
It has all the makings of a dystopian medical disaster movie, but unfortunately it’s all too real.
Current Occupant: “That World Health Organization guy is a bum. He’s a stooge. I didn’t appoint him - not even in an acting capacity - so nothin’ he says counts. You don’t see him on the podium with me at daily briefings, do you? Just ignore the foreign dope. I know what I’m talkin’ about here; he doesn’t.”
As I understand it, surgical-style masks are the thing, not filtering ones.
The former protect others from you, and can be made of almost anything: dresses, linen, etc.
The latter protect you from others, but (realistically) only in conjunction with additional PPE to protect your eyes, eyebrows, ears, cheeks, forehead, hair, shoulders, clothing, etc. from the airborne particles that we all spew constantly (“If you’re saying it, you’re spraying it!”) whether or not we (or the spewees) realize it.
I don’t think the latter are going to protect you without, say, a full-body suit, but I’m just some non-medical schlub, so what do I know?