Why The November Election Is Going To Be Even More Effed Than We Realized | Talking Points Memo

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#89

For an election, you don’t need it to break down all the time, you just need it to break down during the peak of the election. And things on the internet do break down all the time, we’ve just gotten used to it. Today, for example, there are reported outages for Google Fiber, Cox and Buckeye. Sure, most of them don’t last that long, and most things people can work around. And as for data breaches, we’ve been getting sent new credit cards on a regular basis not because our card was stolen, but because it was included in yet another tens-of-millions-of-records breach at some retailer or payments processor.

Sure, you could in theory engineer a voting system that was resilient to all that kind of stuff at the 0.01% level (which is what you need to keep errors under 10,000 votes). But in practice it ain’t going to happen any time soon. And paper is really so much easier to make work from where we are now.

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#90

I live in Oregon. We’ve done this shit for years, along with Washington, Colorado, etc., of course. Have other states made any effort to see how voting is handled in 100% vote-by-mail jurisdictions? It seems like a no-brainer, but if your goal is actually to suppress the vote, maybe you’re not interested in learning how to make it work.

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#91

The very big problem for the Trump campaign, is Michigan and Wisconsin.

Trump got a pretty narrow EC victory in 2016. He really doesn’t have a lot of flexibility in surrendering states. And is certainly not looking at expanding the map.

That list includes 5 states equal to 70 EVs, wiping out his victory margin. And, IMO, I think they are at great risk of losing AZ, but isn’t included (I assume due to lack of 3 or more polls in last 6 weeks), which is another 11 EVs.

Just those changes puts Biden at 333 EVs vs. 205 Trump. And there are danger signs cropping up in a lot of other places…MT, IA, TX, GA…I wouldn’t be feeling safe about SC or KY at this point, either.

The larger point here is, the sort of election that would flip a GA or even a TX, probably flips a lot of other states, too. They aren’t fighting for a close victory right now, they are trying to hold off a landslide disaster.

8 Likes
#92

The problem is, you have been doing it for years. Most states haven’t, at least on a massive scale. They are trying to scale up an operation rapidly, in the middle of a pandemic and economic recession happening.

That’s a recipe for a lot of screw ups. Factor in bad actors involved in implementing that scale up, and yeah…we get Tierney publishing articles like this. (BTW, good on her for getting this out).

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#93

This would obviously have to be a federal initiative, and last time I checked, they’ve got more money than any bank. Again, not a tech or money issue, but a political issue.

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#94

You must remember, MONEY has a detailed audit trail, the IRS and LE can always find out who, what, how, and where money moved, to and from and usually for what reason.
The government has a good reason for that, so it can TAX IT.

Voting on the other hand is “supposed” to be completely secret. It is designed to be difficult to figure out who voted for whom. It is much more like a “cash transaction”. Once the cash is pooled, it’s near impossible to figure out what money came from whom.

Voting is unique in the fact that we demand it be;

  1. Easy
  2. Secure
  3. SECRET

Pick any two.

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#95

Whenever I see the phrase “Why X Is Going To Be More Effed That Anyone Realized” I am reminded that saying “We Told You So” only ever serves to remind your audience why they ignored you the first time.

#96

We could always expand the voting days, open the polling stations on the Saturday before the first Tuesday, and leave them open until Tuesday until there’s no one left in line. And expand Mail In voting.

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#97

If you weren’t at the whims of Ron “Superfan” DeSantis and his apparatchik SoS, yes, but the proposal I was responding to was specifically about online voting.

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#98

Desperate to steal as much as he can from the Trumpholes before he’s thrown off of the campaign, Brad Parscale claimed 300,000 people had already signed up for the Bunker Boy’s Death Rally in Tulsa Oklahoma.

Huh?

First off, the venue where Morbidly Obese is speaking holds 19,199 people. MAXIMUM.

Second no social distancing or masks will be used, making it the world’s largest petri dish for the Donnievirus .

Third, anybody trying to get tickets has to sign a waiver saying if they get the Donnievirus and get sick, they can’t sue the campaign.

Fourth, the population of Tulsa is a bit over 401 thousand. So in order to swallow this, we have to believe three-quarters of the population of the city will show up to listen to the Failed Mail-order Meat Salesman.

My question is where are they going to stay?

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#99

Given what DeSantis is doing with Covid data, I find it oddly endearing that you expect ballot counting to be done in Florida on the up and up.

Assume Trump will get 98% of the vote in places like Florida and Georgia, he doesn’t want to be embarrassed again by losing the popular vote nationwide.

#100

I live in Washington and our vote by mail works perfectly but in close elections it might take days to count all the ballots. I wonder how the second wave of the pandemic, especially in open Republican states will effect the vote. Many Republicans might really be pissed off at their elected Cult leaders.
In the end I don’t think it will make much difference because the Democratic turnout will be overwhelming. We want to send the malignant President to prison.

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#101

The 300,000 Cult members who sign waivers is not for if they get the Donnievirus but When they get the Donnievirus. It’s a mass suicide event.

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#102

Plenty of time for them to get put on ventilators before the election.

#103

It is long past time for activists to familiarize themselves with the dusty and rarely used parts of the US code that go into effect when the integrity of federal elections are in question and cannot be certified.

Election integrity failure is part of the plan. The GOP is depending on it.

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#104

Everybody talks incessantly about what the GOP will do. How about some talk about how we are more than ready for this because we aren’t in the dark. We know, the Democrats have plans made.

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#105

We are not even remotely in position to win a contingent election.

If Democrats have a plan for avoiding a contingent election, then it would be good for activists to know what to do to help avoid it. As far as I can tell, the GOP can force a contingent election just by refusing to prevent it. (Spoiler: they are refusing every opportunity.)

Do you know what activists can do to help avoid a contingent election? I don’t. I can’t see any way to avoid it if the GOP decides that’s how they win this year.

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#106

What makes you so damn sure that this is what will happen?

And how do you know plans aren’t already in place? You don’t think the party has lawyers ready to go? They do.

#107

I’m not sure, but if T-bone doesn’t recover in the polls between now and November, then a contingent election is pretty much his only legitimate path to remain in the White House.

A few weeks ago, I saw reports on Twitter and in POLITICO that Democrats were gaming out this scenario. Those reports say that Democrats are keeping the results of those planning sessions very closely held. Note well: that means Democrats have been holding planning sessions, not that they have produced a plan.

Do I think they have lawyers? Yes. They have lawyers. Do those lawyers have a plan? Maybe. Is it a plan that can work? I’m skeptical. There will be a nearly impossible time pressure to overcome, and GOP opponents are exceedingly good at obstructing legal procedures. Especially with a friendly judicial bench.

Telling me that Democrats have lawyers ready to prevent a contingent election is like telling me that the fossil fuel industry has lawyers ready to prevent a 5C rise in average global temperatures. Sure, I believe there are lawyers. I don’t think they even want to do anything about it, much less have any power to do so.

#108

What the hell is legit about it?

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