Things are, by every measure, looking terrible for Democrats in New York’s 9th district, where voters will decide on Anthony Weiner’s replacement this Tuesday. Despite the seat’s 3:1 ratio of Democrats to Republicans, David Weprin trails GOP nominee Bob Turner 50-44 in the latest poll from Siena University. But the reasons why may not be what you think.According to Siena pollster Steven Greenberg, Weprin’s biggest problem is holding onto Democrats and Independents, which accounts for his lousy numbers in what should be a safe Democratic seat. After all, in the 2008 Presidential election, the district went for Obama over McCain by 55-44. Currently, though, while Turner wins 90% of Republicans and Weprin 6%, only 62% of Democrats are backing Weprin versus 32% who are defecting to Turner. Meanwhile, Independents are breaking for Turner big time: he leads 65-27. A month ago, that number was only in his favor 46-42.
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=107389